Races · Governor · 2026 · AK

Governor · open seat

Mary Peltola vs Click Bishop

AL Governor →

Likely D D +11.7 · 176 days to election · 4 polls · 24 markets Last poll 49d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 86% R

likely-d · high-tipping · uncertainty-high

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +15.3

80% CI: R +32.8 → D +2.2 · win prob 14%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	4
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +5.2

80% CI D +0.7 → D +6.7

CV MAE 7.21

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +9.4

80% CI D +7.5 → D +11.3

CV MAE 1.50

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +15.3

80% CI R +32.8 → D +2.2

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 4 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:4 of 4 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
2/11/2026	Lake Research Partners^	1.00	—	600	±4.0	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 88d old Poll was fielded 88 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Tom Begich 38.0 · Click Bishop 8.0 · Dave Bronson 13.0 · Bernadette Wilson 16.0	poll arch
7/27/2025	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	584	±4.0	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Progress (D)287d old+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Progress (D) This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Progress (D)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 287d old Poll was fielded 287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Tom Begich 8.0 · Click Bishop 8.0 · Adam Crum 5.0 · Nancy Dahlstrom 13.0 · Edna DeVries 3.0 · Mary Peltola 47.0 · Treg Taylor 3.0 · Bernadette Wilson 13.0	poll arch
3/7/2025	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1000	±3.0	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Progress (D)429d old+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Progress (D) This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Progress (D)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 429d old Poll was fielded 429 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Nick Begich 46.0 · Mary Peltola 46.0	poll arch
3/7/2025	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1000	±3.0	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Progress (D)429d old+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Progress (D) This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Progress (D)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 429d old Poll was fielded 429 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Nancy Dahlstrom 34.0 · Mary Peltola 44.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Apr 16	+11.7	-9.0	+20.7
Inside Elections	Safe R	Aug 28	+11.7	-18.0	+29.7
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	Sep 4	+11.7	-9.0	+20.7

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 7 weeks ago (3/22/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/3/2026 Likely D D+11.7 via polls