Races · Senate · 2026 · MN
Senate · class II · open seat

Minnesota Senate

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Tossup — · 176 days to election · 2 polls · 4 markets Last poll 91d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 66% D

tossup · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +5.6
80% CI: R +11.9 → D +23.1 · win prob 66%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used2
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.2
80% CI R +24.4 → D +16.3
CV MAE 7.21
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +5.6
80% CI R +11.9 → D +23.1
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 2 results

2 of 2 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
2/8/2026Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000±3.0LV
91d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 91d old
    Poll was fielded 91 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Michele Tafoya 41.0pollarch
7/11/2025Impact Research1.00L604±4.0LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 303d old
    Poll was fielded 303 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michele Tafoya 45.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 6 total
Michele Tafoya (R)
6 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • Mike Lindell — CEO of My Pillow and candidate for governor in 2026 [ 115 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
  • National Republican Senatorial Committee — [ 121 ]
Other (4)
  • John McGuire — VA-05 (2025–present) [ 119 ]
  • Law Enforcement Today — [ 120 ]
  • Tim Scott — South Carolina (2013–present) [ 121 ]
  • Tim Sheehy — Montana (2025–present) [ 119 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Likely D Oct 14 — +9.0 —
Inside Elections Likely D Aug 12 — +9.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D Oct 23 — +9.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 3 months ago (2/8/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Tossup via pvi

In the news

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