Races · Governor · 2024 · MT
Governor · open seat

Ryan Busse vs Greg Gianforte

← MO Governor NC Governor →
Likely R — · 7 polls · 0 markets Last poll 571d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 7 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 7 results

7 of 7 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/16/2024Montana State University1.00—760—A
no scored pollsadult sample+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • adult sample
    Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections.
  • 571d old
    Poll was fielded 571 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Greg Gianforte 50.0 · Ryan Busse 31.0pollarch
10/8/2024The New York Times/Siena College1.00—656—LV
no scored polls579d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 579d old
    Poll was fielded 579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Greg Gianforte 57.0 · Ryan Busse 35.0pollarch
10/1/2024Public Opinion Strategies *1.00—500—LV
no scored polls586d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 586d old
    Poll was fielded 586 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Greg Gianforte 55.0 · Ryan Busse 36.0pollarch
8/29/2024Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research1.00L600—LV
no scored polls619d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 619d old
    Poll was fielded 619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Greg Gianforte 54.0 · Ryan Busse 38.0pollarch
8/20/2024Public Opinion Strategies *1.00—500—LV
no scored polls628d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 628d old
    Poll was fielded 628 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Greg Gianforte 53.0 · Ryan Busse 34.0pollarch
6/13/2024Public Opinion Strategies *1.00—500—LV
no scored polls696d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 696d old
    Poll was fielded 696 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Greg Gianforte 54.0 · Ryan Busse 33.0pollarch
2/15/2024SurveyUSA1.00—(D+1.5)549—LV
815d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 815d old
    Poll was fielded 815 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Greg Gianforte 52.0 · Ryan Busse 30.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 6 total
Greg Gianforte (R)
6 endorsements · source
Organizations / unions (1)
  • National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund — [ 7 ]
Other (5)
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America — [ 8 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
CNalysis Safe R Aug 17 — -18.0 —
The Cook Political Report Safe R Jun 13 — -18.0 —
Elections Daily Safe R Jul 12 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Jul 14 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Jun 4 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 19 months ago (10/16/2024) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely R via pvi held 664d
  • 7/8/2024 Safe R R+21.5 via polls