Races · Governor · 2024 · Montana

Governor · open seat

Ryan Busse vs Greg Gianforte

← Missouri Governor North Carolina Governor →

Safe RR +25.4 forecast· 7 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Busse (D)
99% Gianforte (R)
Win probability
Ryan Busse1% (D)
Greg Gianforte99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +25.4
80% CIR+37.4 → R+13.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +25.4 · 80% CI R+37.4 → R+13.4
Actual result Greg GianforteKristen Juras +20.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.4 (10th pctile) to R+13.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +25.4

80% CI: R +37.4 → R +13.4 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	7
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Greg GianforteKristen Juras +20.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
30354045505560GIANFORTE 52.6BUSSE 33.5FEB '24JUN '24OCT '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 7 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 15	Montana State University	760 · A	NEUTRAL	—	—	31 · 50
Oct 7	The New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	656 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	35 · 57
Sep 30	Public Opinion Strategies+1	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +7.33 tracked	-2.7r lean	36 · 55
Aug 28	Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research	600 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	38 · 54
Aug 19	Public Opinion Strategies+1	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +7.33 tracked	-2.7r lean	34 · 53
Jun 12	Public Opinion Strategies+1	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +7.33 tracked	-2.7r lean	33 · 54
Feb 14	SurveyUSA+1For · NonStop Local Montana	549 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	30 · 52

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

Gianforte · 100%2
Endorsements tracked
Ryan Busse0 · 0%
Greg Gianforte2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RGreg Gianforte2 endorsers

Most notable · National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund

Organizations1

Other1

DRyan Busse0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

CNalysis

Safe R

Aug 16

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 12

Elections Daily

Safe R

Jul 11

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jul 13

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified7 / 7deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks