Races · Governor · 2026 · Minnesota
Governor · open seat · provisional matchup
Klobuchar vs Republican
Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet
10 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary August 11, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 94%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+18.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.9 (10th pctile) to D+29.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 14.6% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 76/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (22.0pp); models disagree by 10.6pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
76
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement53
10.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution53 / 100
Measured10.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion37
3.7pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution37 / 100
Measured3.7pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity63
3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution63 / 100
Measured3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +18.9
80% CI: D +7.9 → D +29.9 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 34 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +8.3
80% CI R +3.2 → D +10.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +15.1
80% CI D +13.6 → D +16.5
CV MAE 1.13
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 44 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 94% · polls 50%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
3 polls · through Jun 10, 2026 · latest Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
Amy Klobuchar
VoteHub49.7%
VoteHub
Polling average49.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Lisa Demuth
VoteHub40.0%
VoteHub
Polling average40.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Kendall Qualls
VoteHub37.0%
VoteHub
Polling average37.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Mike Lindell
VoteHub36.0%
VoteHub
Polling average36.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 3 polls (through Jun 10, 2026): Amy Klobuchar 49.7%, Lisa Demuth 40.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 34 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 26 | Mason-Dixon | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.128 tracked | -2.9noisy | 48 · 40 |
| Jun 14, 26 | Mason-Dixon | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.128 tracked | -2.9noisy | 53 · 36 |
| Jun 14, 26 | Mason-Dixon | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.128 tracked | -2.9noisy | 48 · 37 |
| Jun 9, 26 | Minnesota Star Tribune | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 40 |
| Jun 9, 26 | Minnesota Star Tribune | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 36 |
| Jun 9, 26 | Minnesota Star Tribune | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 37 |
| Feb 10, 26 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 51 · 38 |
| Feb 10, 26 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 53 · 31 |
| Feb 7, 26 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 38 |
| Feb 7, 26 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 31 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet8
Endorsements tracked
Klobuchar8 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DKlobuchar8 endorsers
Most notable · Pete Buttigieg · former secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- EMILY's List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party
- Service Employees International Union
- Teamsters · Joint Council 32
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Pete Buttigieg · former secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
RRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Likely DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
67 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles67
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.12
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.18 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.12
Week-over-weekshift −0.18 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 12%
Neutral 88%
12% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets12%
Neutral88%
R-leaning outlets0%
12% of outlets classified by editorial lean
S
Outsiders won Minnesota GOP backing. Are they well-known enough to win elections?
B
Amy Klobuchar | Biography, Books, & Facts
M
The billionaire backing Lisa Demuth’s run for governor
K
Klobuchar stops in Moorhead on campaign trail for MN Gov.
S
Megadonor Richard Uihlein fuels Lisa Demuth campaign
G
Klobuchar stops in East Grand Forks to tout rural agriculture and economy plan
I
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar announces plan to grow rural Minnesota economy
K
Senator Amy Klobuchar Visiting Eight Northern Minnesota Counties
V
Klobuchar unveils rural economy plan in Moorhead as part of governor’s race
V
Klobuchar heads to northwest Minnesota for three-day rural economy tour
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified34 / 34deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks