Pollster · 361 of 1769
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Polls scored
9
Mean error
5.9 pt
Signed bias
D+5.81
Aggregation weight
0.78
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components78
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 11 graded races, Siena College/NYT Upshot's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +0.0pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+0.0pp
Median delta
-1.0pp
Std-dev
3.2pp
N graded
11
Recent activity
Total all time
19
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | #10 / 20 | 9 | 5.13 pt | D+5.05 pp |
Recent polls
- 10/29/2020Arizona · Senate (special) · 2020Martha McSally 43.0 · Mark Kelly 50.0
- 10/26/2020North Carolina · Senate · 2020Thom Tillis 43.0 · Cal Cunningham 46.0 · Shannon Bray 2.0
- 10/25/2020Michigan · Senate · 2020Gary Peters 49.0 · John James 41.0
- 10/24/2020Texas · Senate · 2020John Cornyn 48.0 · MJ Hegar 38.0
- 10/19/2020Iowa · Senate · 2020Joni Ernst 45.0 · Theresa Greenfield 44.0
- 10/19/2020Kansas · Senate · 2020Roger Marshall 46.0 · Barbara Bollier 42.0 · Jason Buckley 4.0
- 10/19/2020Montana · Senate · 2020Steve Daines 49.0 · Steve Bullock 46.0
- 10/13/2020Alaska · Senate · 2020Dan Sullivan 45.0 · Al Gross 37.0
- 10/13/2020South Carolina · Senate · 2020Lindsey Graham 46.0 · Jaime Harrison 40.0
- 10/12/2020North Carolina · Senate · 2020Thom Tillis 37.0 · Cal Cunningham 41.0 · Shannon Bray 4.0