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Races · Senate · 2020 · Kansas
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
Senate · class II · open seat

Barbara Bollier vs Roger Marshall

← Illinois SenateKentucky Senate →
Likely RR +11.2 forecast· 30 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
3% Bollier (D)
97% Marshall (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +11.2 · 80% CI R+23.1 → D+0.8
Actual result R+11.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 97% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+11.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+23.1 (10th pctile) to D+0.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +11.2
80% CI: R +23.1 → D +0.8 · win prob 3%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used30
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+11.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

Latest poll · 8 candidates

This race has 8 polled candidates — too many for a readable time-series chart. Showing the latest aggregated polling average per candidate instead. The All polls table below has full per-poll detail.

RGeneric Republican53.0%
RRoger Marshall46.6%
DEMBarbara Goolsbee Bollier44.7%
DBarbara Bollier43.3%
RKris Kobach43.0%
RBob Hamilton40.0%
DGeneric Democrat39.0%
LJason Buckley3.4%

All polls · 30 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 31, 20Data for Progress+11,121 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 51
Oct 26, 20VCreek/AMG1,149 · LVR-LEAN——43 · 47
Oct 26, 20GBAO StrategiesFor · Bollierforkansas600 · LVNEUTRAL——46 · 45
Oct 25, 20GBAO600 · unknownD-LEAN—+9.3d lean45
Oct 25, 20VCreek/AMG1,149 · unknownR-LEAN——47
Oct 19, 20Public Policy Polling897 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy43 · 43
Oct 19, 20Siena College/NYT Upshot755 · LVD-LEAND +5.09 tracked0.0aligned42 · 46
Oct 19, 20co/efficient+2For · Politico2,453 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean39 · 51
Sep 29, 20VCreek/AMG+13,104 · LVR-LEAN——45 · 42
Sep 28, 20Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos677 · LVD-LEAND +4.05 tracked-0.9aligned43 · 50
Sep 28, 20VCreek/AMG3,104 · unknownR-LEAN——42
Sep 26, 20GBAO Strategies600 · LVNEUTRAL——45 · 43
Sep 25, 20GBAO600 · unknownD-LEAN—+9.3d lean43
Sep 18, 20Data for Progress+1883 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned40 · 40
Sep 15, 20co/efficient794 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean39 · 43
Sep 15, 20co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC794 · LVNEUTRAL——39 · 53
Aug 8, 20SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,202 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned44 · 46
Aug 5, 20Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling864 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy42 · 43
May 31, 20Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos699 · RVD-LEAND +4.05 tracked-0.9aligned41 · 42
May 31, 20Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos699 · RVD-LEAND +4.05 tracked-0.9aligned41 · 40
May 31, 20Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos699 · RVD-LEAND +4.05 tracked-0.9aligned42 · 41
May 18, 20NMB Research506 · LVNEUTRAL——35 · 46
May 18, 20NMB Research/NRSC506 · LVR-LEAN——43 · 44
Apr 13, 20Public Policy Polling+2For · Politico1,271 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy44 · 42
Apr 13, 20Public Policy Polling+2For · Politico1,271 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy40 · 50
Mar 10, 20Public Policy Polling+1For · Public Policy Polling1,567 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy37 · 47
Feb 12, 20McLaughlin & Associates+2300 · LVNEUTRALD +1.04 tracked-6.3noisy38 · 47
Feb 5, 20DFM Research600 · AD-LEAND +6.13 tracked—43 · 43
Feb 5, 20DFM Research/SMART Transportation Division600 · ANEUTRAL——31 · 39
Jun 10, 19Tarrance Group/NRSCFor · WSJ600 · LVR-LEAN——36 · 44
· 30 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 31 total

Source · Wikipedia · 6 candidates with no endorsements yet
15Democrat · 48%
Republican · 52%16
RGeneric Republican16 endorsers
Most notable · Newt Gingrich · former speaker of the United States House of Representatives and former U.S. representative (GA-06, 1979–1999)
Organizations8
Other6
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Newspapers1
DGeneric Democrat15 endorsers
Most notable · Chuck Schumer · U.S. senator (NY) and Senate Minority Leader
Other10
Elected officials3
Federal 2State 1Local 0
Organizations2
RRoger Marshall0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DBarbara Bollier0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LJason Buckley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMBarbara Goolsbee Bollier0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKris Kobach0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBob Hamilton0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Roger MarshallS0KS00315 ↗
Receipts
$6.8M
Disburse
$7.2M
Cash on hand
$210.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
NA$29.6K
NUETERRA$27.0K
CREATIVEONE$22.4K
BURNS MCDONNELL$20.6K
BUKATY COMPANIES$20.5K
Kris KobachS0KS00257 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$10.7K
Debts
$4.2K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$5.6K
Electric utilities$5.6K
Top contributors
SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$11.2K
QUALITY SOLUTIONS$11.2K
THIEL CAPITAL LLC$11.2K
RELIABLE$11.2K
K&L GATES LLP$5.6K
Barbara BollierS0KS00323 ↗
Receipts
$29.0M
Disburse
$28.8M
Cash on hand
$163.0K
Debts
$50.0K
Top industries
Internet$184.2K
Education$166.1K
Health professionals$57.5K
Computers / electronics$55.0K
Top contributors
GOOGLE$150.0K
UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS$94.4K
UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS MEDICAL CENTER$57.5K
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA$47.0K
ANESTHESIA ASSOCIATES OF KANSAS CITY$37.6K
Bob HamiltonS0KS00349 ↗
Receipts
$4.0M
Disburse
$3.9M
Cash on hand
$46.8K
Debts
$3.8M
Top industries
Insurance$2.8K
Top contributors
BOB HAMILTON PLUMBING$11.4K
GIVING THE BASICS$5.8K
ACE IMAGEWEAR$5.6K
MERCHANTS$5.6K
AFF$5.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$33.5M
D side
$9.0M · 27%
R side
$24.5M · 73%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
For / against split
For Bollier $264.4K
Against Marshall $8.7M
Against Bollier $6.9M
For Marshall $17.6M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$20.9M62%for Roger Marshall
PLAINS PACD$13.4M40%against Kris Kobach
DUTY AND COUNTRYD$7.2M21%against Roger Marshall
FREE FOREVER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$5.1M15%for Kris Kobach
WOMEN VOTE!D$1.6M5%against Roger Marshall
KEEP KANSAS GREAT PAC INC.R$1.4M4%against Barbara Bollier
COOPERATIVE OF AMERICAN PHYSICIANS INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEER$1.4M4%for Roger Marshall
NRSCR$1.0M3%against Barbara Bollier
SUNFLOWER STATED$706.5K2%against Kris Kobach
SENATE LEADERSHIP FUNDR$213.7K1%against Barbara Bollier

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt R1
Lean R3
Likely R1
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Oct 28
DDHQ
Lean R
Nov 2
538
Likely R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified26 / 30deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements31 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks