Public domain
RepublicanRunning for KS U.S. Senate · 2026
Roger Marshall
Roger Wayne Marshall (born August 9, 1960) is an American politician, physician, and former military officer serving as the junior United States senator from Kansas since 2021. A member of the Republican Party , he served from 2017 to 2021 as the U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district , a mostly rural district covering much of the western and northern parts of the state.
Born 1960 · El Dorado, Kansas , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
Roger Marshall, an American physician and former military officer, is the junior U.S. senator from Kansas since 2021, previously serving as U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district from 2017 to 2021. He is running for U.S. Senate in Kansas in 2026, leading opponent Patrick Schmidt in polling by about 49% to 45%. Betting markets put his win probability at around 80%. He has raised roughly $3 million for the race.
49%
Polling average
our aggregate
84%
Win probability
market-implied
$3.3M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Marshall's money comes from.
C−
32/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance8
4% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
46% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding25
75% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure94
$215k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
What Marshall did in office.
MeasureYearAction
Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act of 2025
Became Public Law No: 119-69.
2025
Became law
A resolution congratulating the Johnson County Community College Cavaliers on winning the 2026 National Junior
Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (consideration: CR S3194; text: CR S321
2026
Sponsored
Healthy Start Reauthorization Act of 2026
Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 442.
2026
Sponsored
A bill to direct the Secretary of Agriculture to establish an initiative to address the availability, quality,
Read twice and referred to the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry.
2026
Sponsored
Protecting America’s Small Oil and Gas Producers and Rural Jobs Act
Read twice and referred to the Committee on Finance.
2026
Sponsored
Bereaved Parents Rights Act
Read twice and referred to the Committee on Finance.
2026
Sponsored
ACCESS Act
Read twice and referred to the Committee on Finance.
2026
Sponsored
SPONSORED LEGISLATION VIA CONGRESS.GOV · ENACTED BILLS FIRST, THEN THE MOST RECENT · ROLE SHOWS THE BILL'S LATEST STATUS.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How Marshall votes
With the party, against it, and where on the spectrum.
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Marshall
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
80
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (SENATE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 845 roll-calls · 119th Congress (Senate)
100%voted with Republicans · 0% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
2017United States representative
2017–2021
2021United States senator
since 2021
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$3.3M
Raised
$256k
Spent
$4.8M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
4% small (<$200)50% large indiv.46% PAC
25% in-state · 75% out-of-state (itemized)
Top contributors · bundled by employer / org
M&M INDUSTRIES INCL
$21k
FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP
$21k
MBLA INTERNATIONAL LLC
$19k
MOBLEY HOLDINGS
$17k
IEX GROUP
$15k
KELLER POSTMAN
$14k
Top industries · itemized $
Publishing / news$14k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Marshall is running in.
KS · SENATE · 2026likely r
Marshall (R) vs Patrick Schmidt (D)
49%+4.0 Marshall45%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Marshall and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Republican
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Democrat
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kansas?
predictit · Republican Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kansas?
predictit · Democratic Party
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $109 · Republican party
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $53 · Democratic party
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. SENATE PHOTOGRAPHIC STUDIO · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
gbtribune.com · 2026-07-06
KFB’s VOTE FBF announces Kansas Senate, House endorsements
kansascity.com · 2026-07-06
KC-area pastor breaks Kansas fundraising record in bid for Marshall’s Senate seat
cjonline.com · 2026-07-06
Meet the three Democrats running for Kansas governor
marshall.senate.gov · 2026-07-03
Senator Marshall Visits All 105 Kansas Counties for the Tenth Time, Kicking Off New Tour
Republican · KS U.S. Senate
Roger Marshall
Roger Wayne Marshall (born August 9, 1960) is an American politician, physician, and former military officer serving as the junior United States senator from Kansas since 2021. A member of the Republican Party , he served from 2017 to 2021 as the U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district , a mostly rural district covering much of the western and northern parts of the state.
Where Marshall standsRace →
Marshall 49%Patrick Schmidt 45%
Market · wins
84¢
49%
Poll avg
84%
Win prob
$3.3M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03Roger Marshall, an American physician and former military officer, is the junior U.S. senator from Kansas since 2021, previously serving as U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district from 2017 to 2021. He is running for U.S. Senate in Kansas in 2026, leading opponent Patrick Schmidt in polling by about 49% to 45%. Betting markets put his win probability at around 80%. He has raised roughly $3 million for the race.
Governing & voting record
Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act of 2025
2025 · BECAME LAW
A resolution congratulating the Johnson County Community College Cavaliers on winning the 2026 National Junior
2026 · SPONSORED
Healthy Start Reauthorization Act of 2026
2026 · SPONSORED
A bill to direct the Secretary of Agriculture to establish an initiative to address the availability, quality,
2026 · SPONSORED
Protecting America’s Small Oil and Gas Producers and Rural Jobs Act
2026 · SPONSORED
Bereaved Parents Rights Act
2026 · SPONSORED
ACCESS Act
2026 · SPONSORED
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
2017United States representative
2017–2021
2021United States senator
since 2021
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Marshall's money comes from.
C−
32/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance8
4% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
46% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding25
75% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure94
$215k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How Marshall votes
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Marshall
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
80
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (SENATE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 845 roll-calls · 119th Congress (Senate)
100%voted with Republicans · 0% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$3.3M
Raised
$256k
Spent
$4.8M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
4% small (<$200)50% large indiv.46% PAC
25% in-state · 75% out-of-state (itemized)
Top industries · itemized $
Publishing / news$14k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Related prediction markets
All markets →Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Republican
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Democrat
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kansas?
predictit · Republican Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kansas?
predictit · Democratic Party
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $109 · Republican party
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $53 · Democratic party
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. SENATE PHOTOGRAPHIC STUDIO · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)