Races · Senate · 2026 · KS
Senate · class II · open seat

Noah Taylor vs Roger Marshall

← IL Senate KY Senate →
Likely R R +10.0 · 176 days to election · 3 polls · 4 markets Last poll 102d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 3 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 96% R

likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +25.0
80% CI: R +42.5 → R +7.5 · win prob 4%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used3
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +12.2
80% CI R +15.3 → R +9.3
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +10.0
80% CI R +12.8 → R +7.2
CV MAE 2.17
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +25.0
80% CI R +42.5 → R +7.5
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 3 results

3 of 3 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
1/28/2026Tavern Research1.00L1013±4.0LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 102d old
    Poll was fielded 102 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Roger Marshall 49.0 · Adam Hamilton 51.0pollarch
1/28/2026Tavern Research1.00L1013±4.0LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 102d old
    Poll was fielded 102 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Roger Marshall 55.0 · Noah Taylor 45.0pollarch
1/28/2026Tavern Research1.00L1013±4.0LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 102d old
    Poll was fielded 102 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Roger Marshall 55.0 · Patrick Schmidt 45.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 3 total
Roger Marshall (R)
3 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 6 ]
  • Senate Conservatives Fund — [ 8 ]
Other (1)
  • AIPAC — [ 7 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Jan 12 -10.0 -18.0 +8.0
Inside Elections Safe R Jan 12 -10.0 -18.0 +8.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Jan 29 -10.0 -18.0 +8.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 3 months ago (1/28/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely R R+10.0 via polls

In the news

News links surfaced via GDELT (a multi-source global news index). External links open in a new tab; we don't rehost article content.