Races · Senate · 2026 · Kansas
Senate · class II · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs Roger Marshall
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
2 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary August 4, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R · market gap 15pp
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+7.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+14.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+25.2 (10th pctile) to R+4.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 9.9% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (20.5pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 3%, market says 18% — 15pp gap.
CITATIONS · likely-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement60
12.1pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution60 / 100
Measured12.1pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +14.9
80% CI: R +25.2 → R +4.7 · win prob 3%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +20.5
80% CI R +26.6 → R +17.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +8.4
80% CI R +11.0 → R +5.9
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +7.9
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 19¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 26 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 19% · polls 45%.
Cross-platform price · history
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Jan 28, 2026 · latest Tavern Research
Roger Marshall
VoteHub54.0%
VoteHub
Polling average54.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg49.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average49.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 5.0 pt above our average
Adam Hamilton
VoteHub46.0%
VoteHub
Polling average46.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jan 28, 2026): Roger Marshall 54.0%, Adam Hamilton 46.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | GQR+2For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +12.8d lean | 45 · 49 |
| Jan 27 | Tavern Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 1,013 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 49 |
| Jan 27 | Tavern Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 1,013 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 45 · 55 |
| Jan 27 | Tavern Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 1,013 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 45 · 55 |
Endorsements · 3 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet3
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Roger Marshall3 · 100%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RRoger Marshall3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Senate Conservatives Fund
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IAdam Hamilton0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-17Roger MarshallS0KS00315 ↗
Receipts
$3.3M
Disburse
$255.7K
Cash on hand
$4.8M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Publishing / news$14.0K
Publishing / news · $14.0K
- Keller Postman · $14.0K
Individuals $14.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
M&M INDUSTRIES INCL$21.0K
FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP$21.0K
MBLA INTERNATIONAL LLC$19.0K
MOBLEY HOLDINGS$16.5K
IEX GROUP$15.0K
Noah TaylorS6KS00296 ↗
Receipts
$72.4K
Disburse
$3.8K
Cash on hand
$68.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Patrick Schmidt
Receipts
$177.2K
Disburse
$47.6K
Cash on hand
$129.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$225.3K
D side
$10.5K · 5%
R side
$214.9K · 95%
Top spender
SENATE CONSERVATIVE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $180.2K | 80% | for Roger Marshall |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $34.7K | 15% | for Roger Marshall |
| Way Back PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $10.5K | 5% | for Noah Taylor |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 18
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Lean RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
63 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles63
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.08
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.14 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.08
Week-over-weekshift −0.14 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 8%
Neutral 92%
8% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets8%
Neutral92%
R-leaning outlets0%
8% of outlets classified by editorial lean
G
KFB’s VOTE FBF announces Kansas Senate, House endorsements
K
KC-area pastor breaks Kansas fundraising record in bid for Marshall’s Senate seat
C
Meet the three Democrats running for Kansas governor
M
Senator Marshall Visits All 105 Kansas Counties for the Tenth Time, Kicking Off New Tour
S
Livestock Association opts against endorsing Marshall in U.S. Senate race
K
U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall denies eyeing Trump appointment; vows to stay on ballot
M
Senator Marshall Visits Northwest Kansas Communities
K
Kansas U.S. Senate candidate Sandy Spidel Neumann is focused on optimization
M
Senator Marshall Meets with Housing, Energy & Healthcare Professionals in Southwest Kansas
J
Sen. Roger Marshall rules out Trump job amid questions over state vacancy law
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-17
Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks