Democratic primary · August 4, 2026
Kansas Senate Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
67
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.4pp).
Forecast CI width71
21.4pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution71 / 100
Measured21.4pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity63
3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution63 / 100
Measured3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 3 polls + fundamentals1Adam Hamilton
2Patrick SchmidtPatrick Schmidt is an American politician serving as a member of the Kansas Senate from the 19th district .
3Christy Davis
4Patrick Smith
5Parelkar
6Taylor
7Murray
8Neumann
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Schmidt | Taylor | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21 | Change Research | 1,002 · LV | 7 | 3 | +4 |
| Jun 14 | Change Research | 1,022 · LV | — | — | — |
| Jun 14 | Change Research | 1,022 · LV | 7 | — | — |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDPatrick Schmidt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DNoah Taylor0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-17In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
63 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles63
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.08
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.14 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.08
Week-over-weekshift −0.14 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 8%
Neutral 92%
8% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets8%
Neutral92%
R-leaning outlets0%
8% of outlets classified by editorial lean
G
KFB’s VOTE FBF announces Kansas Senate, House endorsements
K
KC-area pastor breaks Kansas fundraising record in bid for Marshall’s Senate seat
C
Meet the three Democrats running for Kansas governor
M
Senator Marshall Visits All 105 Kansas Counties for the Tenth Time, Kicking Off New Tour
S
Livestock Association opts against endorsing Marshall in U.S. Senate race
K
U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall denies eyeing Trump appointment; vows to stay on ballot
M
Senator Marshall Visits Northwest Kansas Communities
K
Kansas U.S. Senate candidate Sandy Spidel Neumann is focused on optimization
M
Senator Marshall Meets with Housing, Energy & Healthcare Professionals in Southwest Kansas
J
Sen. Roger Marshall rules out Trump job amid questions over state vacancy law
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-17
Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks