DemocratRunning for KS U.S. Senate · 2026
Patrick Schmidt
Patrick Schmidt is an American politician serving as a member of the Kansas Senate from the 19th district .
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
In brief: Patrick Schmidt is a member of the Kansas Senate representing the 19th district, running for U.S. Senate in Kansas. In polling, he trails opponent Roger Marshall, about 45% to roughly 49%. Betting markets on Polymarket put his chances of winning at around 20%. His campaign has raised roughly $200,000.
45%
Polling average
our aggregate
17%
Win probability
market-implied
$177k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Schmidt's money comes from.
B−
63/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance18
9% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence72
7% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding62
38% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
2025Member of the State Senate of Kansas
since 2025
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$177k
Raised
$48k
Spent
$130k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
9% small (<$200)84% large indiv.7% PAC
62% in-state · 38% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Race
The contest Schmidt is running in.
KS · SENATE · 2026likely r
Schmidt (D) vs Roger Marshall (R)
45%−4.0 Marshall49%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Schmidt and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Republican
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Democrat
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kansas?
predictit · Republican Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kansas?
predictit · Democratic Party
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $109 · Republican party
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $53 · Democratic party
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.
Related coverage
gbtribune.com · 2026-07-06
KFB’s VOTE FBF announces Kansas Senate, House endorsements
kansascity.com · 2026-07-06
KC-area pastor breaks Kansas fundraising record in bid for Marshall’s Senate seat
cjonline.com · 2026-07-06
Meet the three Democrats running for Kansas governor
marshall.senate.gov · 2026-07-03
Senator Marshall Visits All 105 Kansas Counties for the Tenth Time, Kicking Off New Tour
Democrat · KS U.S. Senate
Patrick Schmidt
Patrick Schmidt is an American politician serving as a member of the Kansas Senate from the 19th district .
Where Schmidt standsRace →
Schmidt 45%Roger Marshall 49%
Market · wins
17¢
45%
Poll avg
17%
Win prob
$177k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03In brief: Patrick Schmidt is a member of the Kansas Senate representing the 19th district, running for U.S. Senate in Kansas. In polling, he trails opponent Roger Marshall, about 45% to roughly 49%. Betting markets on Polymarket put his chances of winning at around 20%. His campaign has raised roughly $200,000.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
2025Member of the State Senate of Kansas
since 2025
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Schmidt's money comes from.
B−
63/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance18
9% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence72
7% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding62
38% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$177k
Raised
$48k
Spent
$130k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
9% small (<$200)84% large indiv.7% PAC
62% in-state · 38% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Related prediction markets
All markets →Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Republican
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Democrat
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kansas?
predictit · Republican Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kansas?
predictit · Democratic Party
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $109 · Republican party
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $53 · Democratic party
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.