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Races · Senate · 2020 · Texas
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
Senate · class II · open seat

MJ Hegar vs John Cornyn

← Tennessee SenateVirginia Senate →
Likely RR +10.3 forecast· 70 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
4% Hegar (D)
96% Cornyn (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +10.3 · 80% CI R+22.3 → D+1.8
Actual result R+9.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+22.2 (10th pctile) to D+1.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +10.3
80% CI: R +22.3 → D +1.8 · win prob 4%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used70
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+9.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

1015202530354045505560REPUBLICAN 50.0CORNYN 49.1HEGAR 42.5DEMOCRAT 41.7HEGAR 40.9WEST 31.4JAN '19DEC '19OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 70 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 31, 20Swayable+1For · Swayable1,042 · LVD-LEAND +7.817 tracked+2.5d lean44 · 57
Oct 31, 20Data for Progress+1926 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 50
Oct 30, 20Emerson College+1763 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 51
Oct 30, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult3,267 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned43 · 47
Oct 27, 20Gravis Marketing+1For · Gravis Marketing670 · LVD-LEAND +2.933 tracked+0.1aligned43 · 49
Oct 27, 20RMG Research/PoliticalIQ800 · LVNEUTRAL——42 · 48
Oct 25, 20Swayable+1For · Swayable492 · LVD-LEAND +7.817 tracked+2.5d lean48 · 52
Oct 25, 20YouGov/UMass Lowell873 · LVNEUTRALD +4.63 tracked—44 · 49
Oct 24, 20Data for Progress+11,018 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 48
Oct 24, 20Siena College/NYT Upshot802 · LVD-LEAND +5.09 tracked0.0aligned38 · 48
Oct 24, 20Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research758 · RVNEUTRAL——40 · 45
Oct 19, 20Citizen Data1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +6.63 tracked—41 · 41
Oct 19, 20YouGov/University of Houston1,000 · LVNEUTRAL——42 · 49
Oct 19, 20University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News925 · LVNEUTRAL——34 · 42
Oct 19, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult3,347 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned41 · 46
Oct 18, 20CygnalFor · Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned41 · 49
Oct 18, 20Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University1,145 · LVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned43 · 49
Oct 18, 20CygnalFor · Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 50
Oct 17, 20Data for Progress+1933 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned41 · 44
Oct 17, 20Cygnal600 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned49
Oct 14, 20Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling712 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy46 · 49
Oct 13, 20Public Policy Polling712 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy49
Oct 10, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult3,455 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned38 · 47
Oct 7, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult2,700 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned38 · 47
Oct 5, 20Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos895 · LVD-LEAND +4.05 tracked-0.9aligned46 · 47
Oct 4, 20Data for Progress+21,949 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned42 · 45
Oct 3, 20YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune+1For · The Texas Tribune908 · LVNEUTRAL——42 · 50
Sep 29, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult2,700 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned39 · 46
Sep 24, 20YouGov/UMass Lowell882 · LVNEUTRALD +4.63 tracked—40 · 50
Sep 21, 20Siena College/NYT Upshot653 · LVD-LEAND +5.09 tracked0.0aligned37 · 43
Sep 21, 20Data for Progress+1726 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned38 · 40
Sep 21, 20Data for Progress+1726 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned41 · 46
Sep 20, 20Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University1,078 · LVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned42 · 50
Sep 19, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult2,616 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned39 · 45
Sep 17, 20YouGov/CBS1,129 · LVNEUTRAL——41 · 46
Sep 16, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult2,555 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned38 · 45
Sep 14, 20Morning Consult+12,616 · unknownD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned45
Sep 10, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult2,700 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned38 · 45
Sep 1, 20Public Policy Polling743 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy40 · 44
Sep 1, 20University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News897 · LVNEUTRAL——28 · 39
Aug 31, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult2,700 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned37 · 46
Aug 24, 20Tyson Group906 · LVNEUTRAL——42 · 44
Aug 24, 20Data for Progress+22,295 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned40 · 46
Aug 21, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult2,700 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned39 · 44
Aug 12, 20YouGov/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation/Rice University's Baker Institute892 · LVNEUTRAL——37 · 44
Aug 11, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult2,700 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned38 · 44
Aug 1, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult2,576 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned38 · 44
Jul 31, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult2,700 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned38 · 44
Jul 28, 20Global Strategy Group+1For · Politico700 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean43 · 44
Jul 21, 20Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult2,700 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned40 · 40
Jul 19, 20Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University880 · RVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned38 · 47
Jul 19, 20Spry Strategies750 · LVNEUTRAL——37 · 47
Jul 9, 20YouGov/CBS1,179 · LVNEUTRAL——36 · 44
Jul 9, 20CBS News/YouGov+11,182 · LVD-LEAND +3.416 tracked+1.4aligned37 · 43
Jul 6, 20Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler+11,677 · LVNEUTRAL——29 · 42
Jul 6, 20Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler+11,677 · LVNEUTRAL——28 · 43
Jun 24, 20Public Policy Polling+1For · Public Policy Polling729 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy35 · 42
Jun 22, 20Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,001 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean36 · 46
Jun 22, 20Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,001 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean37 · 47
Jun 18, 20Public Policy Polling907 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy45 · 47
Apr 26, 20Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler1,183 · RVNEUTRAL——24 · 37
Apr 26, 20Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler1,183 · RVNEUTRAL——24 · 35
Feb 26, 20NBC News/Marist+2For · NBC News/Marist2,409 · RVD-LEAND +5.111 tracked-0.8aligned41 · 49
Feb 25, 20Univision/UH1,004 · RVNEUTRAL——41 · 43
Jan 20, 20Data for Progress+11,486 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned42 · 50
Nov 20, 19Beacon Research+1601 · RVD-LEAN—+8.2d lean30 · 44
Nov 20, 19Beacon Research+1601 · RVD-LEAN—+8.2d lean33 · 45
Nov 20, 19Beacon Research+1601 · RVD-LEAN—+8.2d lean44 · 46
Sep 5, 19Univision/UH1,004 · RVNEUTRAL——40 · 41
Apr 27, 19Emerson College+1799 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned12 · 29
· 70 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 62 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
59Democrat · 95%
Republican · 5%3
DGeneric Democrat59 endorsers
Most notable · Carol Moseley Braun · former U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (1999–2001) and U.S. Senator (IL) (1993–1999)
Elected officials26
Federal 11State 15Local 0
Other20
Newspapers6
Organizations6
Celebrity1
RGeneric Republican3 endorsers
Most notable · Dan Patrick · Lieutenant Governor of Texas
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Other1
RJohn Cornyn0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMJ Hegar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMMary Jennings Hegar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DRoyce West0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
MJ HegarS0TX00233 ↗
Receipts
$29.6M
Disburse
$29.6M
Cash on hand
$86.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$125.3K
Computers / electronics$97.4K
Education$46.4K
Top contributors
GOOGLE$80.4K
UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS$28.5K
FACEBOOK$24.2K
IBM$21.7K
MICROSOFT$20.9K
John CornynS2TX00106 ↗
Receipts
$28.6M
Disburse
$33.8M
Cash on hand
$633.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$184.2K
Air transport$36.7K
Govt employees$29.4K
Top contributors
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$104.2K
UNITED AIRLINES$36.7K
BLACKSTONE$31.2K
STATE OF TEXAS$29.4K
KKR$25.2K
Royce WestS0TX00266 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$2.1M
Cash on hand
$3.1K
Debts
$242.0K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$38.1K
Education$8.6K
Top contributors
PROVOST UMPHREY LAW FIRM$14.0K
DON HERRING MITSUBISHI$8.6K
KELLEY LAW FIRM$8.6K
HILLCO PARTNERS$8.4K
MATTHEWS SOUTHWEST$8.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$77.4M
D side
$44.2M · 57%
R side
$33.2M · 43%
Top spender
FF PAC
For / against split
For Hegar $18.2M
Against Cornyn $26.0M
Against Hegar $24.9M
For Cornyn $8.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
FF PACD$41.3M53%against John Cornyn
TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITYR$24.4M32%against MJ Hegar
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$8.6M11%for John Cornyn
SMPD$2.1M3%for MJ Hegar
FLIP THE SENATE PACD$356.3K0%for MJ Hegar
WOMEN VOTE!D$179.6K0%against John Cornyn
COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA-COPE POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEED$137.1K0%for Royce West
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$122.4K0%for John Cornyn
COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA WORKING VOICESD$78.0K0%for Royce West
THE COLLECTIVE SUPER PACD$25.8K0%for Royce West

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R3
Likely R2
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Oct 28
DDHQ
Likely R
Nov 2
538
Likely R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Lean R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified63 / 70deterministic
Polls flagged4needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements62 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks