Races · Senate · 2020 · TX
Senate · class II · open seat

MJ Hegar vs John Cornyn

Lean R · 73 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2016d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 73 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R

lean-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 73 results

73 of 73 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/1/2020Swayable0.49L(D+7.7)1042LV
historical bias D+7.7ptweight 0.49+3
  • historical bias D+7.7pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+7.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • weight 0.49
    Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 2016d old
    Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 57.0 · MJ Hegar 44.0pollarch
11/1/2020Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)926LV
2016d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 2016d old
    Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
John Cornyn 50.0 · MJ Hegar 47.0pollarch
10/31/2020Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)763LV
2017d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 2017d old
    Poll was fielded 2017 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
John Cornyn 51.0 · MJ Hegar 47.0pollarch
10/31/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)3267LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2017d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2017d old
    Poll was fielded 2017 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=3,267
    Sample size of 3,267 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 47.0 · MJ Hegar 43.0pollarch
10/28/2020Gravis Marketing0.72L(D+2.9)670LV
bias D+2.9pt2020d old+3
  • bias D+2.9pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.
  • 2020d old
    Poll was fielded 2020 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 49.0 · MJ Hegar 43.0pollarch
10/28/2020RMG Research/PoliticalIQ1.00800LV
no scored polls2020d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2020d old
    Poll was fielded 2020 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 48.0 · MJ Hegar 42.0pollarch
10/26/2020Swayable0.49L(D+7.7)492LV
historical bias D+7.7ptweight 0.49+3
  • historical bias D+7.7pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+7.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • weight 0.49
    Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 2022d old
    Poll was fielded 2022 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 52.0 · MJ Hegar 48.0pollarch
10/26/2020YouGov/UMass Lowell0.87(D+4.6)873LV
3 scored polls2022d old+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2022d old
    Poll was fielded 2022 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 49.0 · MJ Hegar 44.0pollarch
10/25/2020Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)1018LV
2023d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 2023d old
    Poll was fielded 2023 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
John Cornyn 48.0 · MJ Hegar 46.0pollarch
10/25/2020Siena College/NYT Upshot0.78L(D+5.0)802LV
2023d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 2023d old
    Poll was fielded 2023 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 48.0 · MJ Hegar 38.0pollarch
10/25/2020Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research1.00758RV
no scored polls2023d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2023d old
    Poll was fielded 2023 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 45.0 · MJ Hegar 40.0pollarch
10/20/2020Citizen Data0.61(D+6.6)1000LV
3 scored polls2028d old+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2028d old
    Poll was fielded 2028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 41.0 · MJ Hegar 41.0pollarch
10/20/2020YouGov/University of Houston1.001000LV
no scored polls2028d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2028d old
    Poll was fielded 2028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 49.0 · MJ Hegar 42.0pollarch
10/20/2020University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News1.00925LV
no scored polls2028d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2028d old
    Poll was fielded 2028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 42.0 · MJ Hegar 34.0pollarch
10/20/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)3347LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2028d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2028d old
    Poll was fielded 2028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=3,347
    Sample size of 3,347 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 46.0 · MJ Hegar 41.0pollarch
10/19/2020Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600LV
2029d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 2029d old
    Poll was fielded 2029 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 49.0 · MJ Hegar 41.0pollarch
10/19/2020Quinnipiac University1.00(D+1.9)1145LV
2029d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 2029d old
    Poll was fielded 2029 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 49.0 · MJ Hegar 43.0pollarch
10/19/2020Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600LV
2029d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 2029d old
    Poll was fielded 2029 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Generic Republican 50.0 · Generic Democrat 43.0pollarch
10/18/2020Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)933LV
2030d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 2030d old
    Poll was fielded 2030 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
John Cornyn 44.0 · MJ Hegar 41.0pollarch
10/15/2020Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)712unknown
2033d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 2033d old
    Poll was fielded 2033 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
John Cornyn 49.0 · MJ Hegar 46.0pollarch
10/11/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)3455LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2037d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2037d old
    Poll was fielded 2037 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=3,455
    Sample size of 3,455 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 47.0 · MJ Hegar 38.0pollarch
10/8/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)2700LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2040d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2040d old
    Poll was fielded 2040 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,700
    Sample size of 2,700 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 47.0 · MJ Hegar 38.0pollarch
10/6/2020Civiqs/Daily Kos0.91L(D+4.0)895LV
2042d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 2042d old
    Poll was fielded 2042 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 47.0 · MJ Hegar 46.0pollarch
10/5/2020Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)1949LV
2043d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 2043d old
    Poll was fielded 2043 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,949
    Sample size of 1,949 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
John Cornyn 45.0 · MJ Hegar 42.0pollarch
10/4/2020YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune1.00908LV
no scored polls2044d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2044d old
    Poll was fielded 2044 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Texas Tribune
    Commissioned by The Texas Tribune, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
John Cornyn 50.0 · MJ Hegar 42.0pollarch
9/30/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)2700LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2048d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2048d old
    Poll was fielded 2048 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,700
    Sample size of 2,700 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 46.0 · MJ Hegar 39.0pollarch
9/25/2020YouGov/UMass Lowell0.87(D+4.6)882LV
3 scored polls2053d old+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2053d old
    Poll was fielded 2053 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 50.0 · MJ Hegar 40.0pollarch
9/22/2020Siena College/NYT Upshot0.78L(D+5.0)653LV
2056d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 2056d old
    Poll was fielded 2056 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 43.0 · MJ Hegar 37.0pollarch
9/22/2020Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)726LV
2056d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 2056d old
    Poll was fielded 2056 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
John Cornyn 40.0 · MJ Hegar 38.0pollarch
9/22/2020Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)726LV
2056d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 2056d old
    Poll was fielded 2056 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Generic Republican 46.0 · Generic Democrat 41.0pollarch
9/21/2020Quinnipiac University1.00(D+1.9)1078LV
2057d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 2057d old
    Poll was fielded 2057 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 50.0 · MJ Hegar 42.0pollarch
9/20/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)2616LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2058d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2058d old
    Poll was fielded 2058 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,616
    Sample size of 2,616 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 45.0 · MJ Hegar 39.0pollarch
9/18/2020YouGov/CBS1.001129LV
no scored polls2060d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2060d old
    Poll was fielded 2060 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 46.0 · MJ Hegar 41.0pollarch
9/17/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)2555LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2061d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2061d old
    Poll was fielded 2061 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,555
    Sample size of 2,555 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 45.0 · MJ Hegar 38.0pollarch
9/11/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)2700LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2067d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2067d old
    Poll was fielded 2067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,700
    Sample size of 2,700 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 45.0 · MJ Hegar 38.0pollarch
9/2/2020Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)743unknown
2076d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 2076d old
    Poll was fielded 2076 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
John Cornyn 44.0 · MJ Hegar 40.0pollarch
9/2/2020University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News1.00897LV
flagged on verificationno scored polls+2
  • flagged on verification
    Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 67.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2076d old
    Poll was fielded 2076 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 39.0 · MJ Hegar 28.0pollarch
9/1/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)2700LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2077d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2077d old
    Poll was fielded 2077 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,700
    Sample size of 2,700 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 46.0 · MJ Hegar 37.0pollarch
8/25/2020Tyson Group1.00906LV
no scored polls2084d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2084d old
    Poll was fielded 2084 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 44.0 · MJ Hegar 42.0pollarch
8/25/2020Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)2295LV
2084d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 2084d old
    Poll was fielded 2084 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,295
    Sample size of 2,295 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
John Cornyn 46.0 · MJ Hegar 40.0pollarch
8/22/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)2700LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2087d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2087d old
    Poll was fielded 2087 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,700
    Sample size of 2,700 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 44.0 · MJ Hegar 39.0pollarch
8/13/2020YouGov/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation/Rice University's Baker Institute1.00892LV
no scored polls2096d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2096d old
    Poll was fielded 2096 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 44.0 · MJ Hegar 37.0pollarch
8/12/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)2700LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2097d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2097d old
    Poll was fielded 2097 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,700
    Sample size of 2,700 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 44.0 · MJ Hegar 38.0pollarch
8/2/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)2576LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2107d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2107d old
    Poll was fielded 2107 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,576
    Sample size of 2,576 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 44.0 · MJ Hegar 38.0pollarch
8/1/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)2700LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2108d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2108d old
    Poll was fielded 2108 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,700
    Sample size of 2,700 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 44.0 · MJ Hegar 38.0pollarch
7/29/2020Global Strategy Group1.00700LV
no scored polls2111d old+4
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2111d old
    Poll was fielded 2111 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Politico
    Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
John Cornyn 44.0 · MJ Hegar 43.0pollarch
7/22/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)2700LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2118d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2118d old
    Poll was fielded 2118 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,700
    Sample size of 2,700 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 40.0 · MJ Hegar 40.0pollarch
7/20/2020Quinnipiac University1.00(D+1.9)880RV
2120d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 2120d old
    Poll was fielded 2120 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 47.0 · MJ Hegar 38.0pollarch
7/20/2020Spry Strategies1.00R750LV
no scored polls2120d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2120d old
    Poll was fielded 2120 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 47.0 · MJ Hegar 37.0pollarch
7/10/2020YouGov/CBS1.001179LV
no scored polls2130d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2130d old
    Poll was fielded 2130 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 44.0 · MJ Hegar 36.0pollarch
7/10/2020CBS News/YouGov0.92L(D+3.4)1182LV
historical bias D+3.4pt2130d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.4pt
    Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2130d old
    Poll was fielded 2130 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 43.0 · Royce West 37.0pollarch
7/7/2020Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler1.001677LV
no scored polls2133d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2133d old
    Poll was fielded 2133 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,677
    Sample size of 1,677 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
John Cornyn 42.0 · MJ Hegar 29.0pollarch
7/7/2020Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler1.001677LV
no scored polls2133d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2133d old
    Poll was fielded 2133 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,677
    Sample size of 1,677 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
John Cornyn 43.0 · Royce West 28.0pollarch
6/25/2020Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)729RV
2145d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 2145d old
    Poll was fielded 2145 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
John Cornyn 42.0 · MJ Hegar 35.0pollarch
6/23/2020Fox News1.00(D+2.6)1001RV
bias D+2.6pt2147d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 2147d old
    Poll was fielded 2147 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 46.0 · MJ Hegar 36.0pollarch
6/23/2020Fox News1.00(D+2.6)1001RV
bias D+2.6pt2147d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 2147d old
    Poll was fielded 2147 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 47.0 · Royce West 37.0pollarch
6/19/2020Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)907unknown
2151d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 2151d old
    Poll was fielded 2151 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Generic Republican 47.0 · Generic Democrat 45.0pollarch
4/27/2020Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler1.001183RV
flagged on verificationno scored polls+2
  • flagged on verification
    Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 61.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2204d old
    Poll was fielded 2204 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 37.0 · MJ Hegar 24.0pollarch
4/27/2020Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler1.001183RV
flagged on verificationno scored polls+2
  • flagged on verification
    Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 59.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2204d old
    Poll was fielded 2204 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 35.0 · Royce West 24.0pollarch
2/27/2020NBC News/Marist0.75L(D+5.1)2409RV
historical bias D+5.1pt2264d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.1pt
    Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2264d old
    Poll was fielded 2264 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • n=2,409
    Sample size of 2,409 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 49.0 · MJ Hegar 41.0pollarch
2/26/2020Univision/UH1.001004RV
no scored polls2265d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2265d old
    Poll was fielded 2265 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 43.0 · Generic Democrat 41.0pollarch
1/21/2020Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)1486LV
2301d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 2301d old
    Poll was fielded 2301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
John Cornyn 50.0 · Generic Democrat 42.0pollarch
11/21/2019Beacon Research1.00L601RV
no scored polls2362d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2362d old
    Poll was fielded 2362 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 44.0 · MJ Hegar 30.0pollarch
11/21/2019Beacon Research1.00L601RV
no scored polls2362d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2362d old
    Poll was fielded 2362 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 45.0 · Royce West 33.0pollarch
11/21/2019Beacon Research1.00L601RV
no scored polls2362d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2362d old
    Poll was fielded 2362 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 45.0 · Chris Bell 30.0pollarch
11/21/2019Beacon Research1.00L601RV
no scored polls2362d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2362d old
    Poll was fielded 2362 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 45.0 · Sema Hernandez 29.0pollarch
11/21/2019Beacon Research1.00L601RV
no scored polls2362d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2362d old
    Poll was fielded 2362 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 46.0 · Beto O'Rourke 42.0pollarch
11/21/2019Beacon Research1.00L601RV
no scored polls2362d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2362d old
    Poll was fielded 2362 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 46.0 · Generic Democrat 44.0pollarch
9/6/2019Univision/UH1.001004RV
no scored polls2438d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2438d old
    Poll was fielded 2438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Cornyn 41.0 · Generic Democrat 40.0pollarch
4/28/2019Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)799RV
flagged on verification2569d old+3
  • flagged on verification
    Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 41.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.
  • 2569d old
    Poll was fielded 2569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
John Cornyn 29.0 · MJ Hegar 12.0pollarch
2/25/2019Quinnipiac University1.00(D+1.9)1222RV
2631d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 2631d old
    Poll was fielded 2631 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
John Cornyn 46.0 · Beto O'Rourke 46.0pollarch
2/14/2019Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)743RV
2642d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 2642d old
    Poll was fielded 2642 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
John Cornyn 47.0 · Beto O'Rourke 45.0pollarch
1/11/2019Atlantic Media & Research1.00R504LV
no scored polls2676d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2676d old
    Poll was fielded 2676 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Cornyn 50.0 · Beto O'Rourke 37.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 62 total
Generic Democrat (D)
59 endorsements · source
Elected officials (26)
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — U.S. representative ( NY-14 ) [ 49 ]
  • Amanda Edwards — Democratic candidate in the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Texas and former Houston City Council member (2016–2020) [ 59 ]
  • Armando Walle — state representative [ 56 ]
  • Carol Moseley Braun — former U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (1999–2001) and U.S. Senator (IL) (1993–1999) [ 57 ]
  • Celia Israel — state representative [ 56 ]
  • Chris Bell — Democratic candidate in the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Texas and former U.S. representative ( TX-25 ) (2003–2005) [ 41 ]
  • Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez — Democratic candidate in the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Texas [ 72 ]
  • Eddie Bernice Johnson — U.S. representative ( TX-30 ) [ 55 ]
  • Elizabeth Warren — U.S. senator from Massachusetts and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate [ 42 ]
  • Evelina Ortega — state representative [ 56 ]
  • Gina Hinojosa — state representative [ 56 ]
  • Jarvis Johnson — state representative [ 56 ]
  • Joaquin Castro — U.S. representative ( TX-20 ) [ 48 ]
  • John Turner — state representative [ 56 ]
  • Jose Menendez — state senator [ 56 ]
  • Maxine Waters — U.S. representative ( CA-43 ) [ 58 ]
  • Nathan Johnson — state senator [ 56 ]
  • Nicole Collier — state representative [ 56 ]
  • Rhetta Bowers — state representative [ 56 ]
  • Ron Kirk — former U.S. Trade Representative (2009–2013), Mayor of Dallas (1995–2002), and Texas Secretary of State (1994–1995) [ 56 ]
  • Shawn Thierry — state representative [ 56 ]
  • Sheryl Cole — state representative [ 56 ]
  • Sylvester Turner — Mayor of Houston and former state representative (1989–2016) [ 60 ]
  • Tammy Duckworth — U.S. senator from Illinois and former U.S. Representative (IL-08) (2013–2017) and U.S. Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs (2009–2011) [ 40 ]
  • Toni Rose — state representative [ 56 ]
  • Veronica Escobar — U.S. representative from ( Texas's 16th congressional district ) [ 41 ]
Newspapers (6)
  • Austin Chronicle — [ 51 ]
  • Daily Texan — [ 52 ]
  • Dallas Morning News — ( co-endorsed with Amanda Edwards ) [ 64 ] [ 65 ]
  • Fort Worth Star-Telegram — [ 66 ] [ 67 ]
  • Houston Chronicle — [ 68 ] [ 69 ] [ 70 ] [ 71 ]
  • San Antonio Express-News — [ 74 ]
Organizations / unions (6)
  • American Federation of Teachers — Texas Chapter [ 62 ]
  • Communications Workers of America — District 6 [ 50 ]
  • Congressional Black Caucus — (CBC) PAC [ 41 ]
  • Everytown for Gun Safety — Action Fund [ 46 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 41 ]
  • Working Families Party — [ 53 ]
Individuals / celebrities (1)
  • Alec Baldwin — actor [ 54 ]
Other (20)
  • Austin American-Statesman — [ 43 ]
  • Beaumont Enterprise — [ 73 ]
  • Bell — <20%
  • Cooper — <20%
  • DSCC — [ 44 ]
  • Democracy for America — [ 56 ]
  • EMILY's List — [ 41 ]
  • Edwards — <20%
  • End Citizens United — [ 45 ]
  • Garcia — <20%
  • Giffords — [ 47 ]
  • Hegar — 60–70%
  • Hernandez — <20%
  • Morris Overstreet — former Texas Court of Criminal Appeals judge (1991–1999) [ 56 ]
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 41 ]
  • No vote
  • Ramirez — <20%
  • Stonewall Democrats — of Dallas [ 75 ]
  • Tina Knowles-Lawson — businesswoman and fashion designer [ 76 ]
  • West — <20%
Generic Republican (R)
3 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Dan Patrick — Lieutenant Governor of Texas [ 14 ]
  • Ted Cruz — U.S. senator from Texas [ 13 ]
Other (1)
  • Cornyn — 80–90%

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Total IE spending
$77.6M
For candidates
$26.7M
Against candidates
$50.9M
Latest filing: 12/31/2020
Source: FEC Schedule E
$18.2M for · $24.9M against
Cash on hand
$87K
Total raised (cycle)
$29.6M
Total spent
$29.6M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
$8.3M for · $26.0M against
Cash on hand
$633K
Total raised (cycle)
$28.6M
Total spent
$33.8M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
$246K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$3K
Total raised (cycle)
$2.1M
Total spent
$2.1M
Debts
$242K
Source: FEC
Beto O'Rourke (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$701K
Total spent
$986K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Chris Bell (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$2K
Total raised (cycle)
$399K
Total spent
$397K
Debts
$51K
Source: FEC
Sema Hernandez (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$4K
Total raised (cycle)
$8K
Total spent
$7K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Lean R Oct 29 -3.5
DDHQ Likely R Nov 3 -9.0
538 Likely R Nov 2 -9.0
Inside Elections Lean R Oct 28 -3.5
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R Nov 2 -3.5

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 67 months ago (11/1/2020) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean R via pvi held 2127d
  • 7/6/2020 Likely R R+7.9 via polls