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Races · Senate · 2020 · Montana
Senate · class II · open seat

Steve Bullock vs Steve Daines

← Mississippi SenateNorth Carolina Senate →
Likely RR +7.2 forecast· 23 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
12% Bullock (D)
88% Daines (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +7.2 · 80% CI R+19.1 → D+4.8
Actual result R+10.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 88% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+7.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+19.1 (10th pctile) to D+4.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 88% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +7.2
80% CI: R +19.1 → D +4.8 · win prob 12%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used23
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+10.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

364044485256DAINES 49.2BULLOCK 46.2MAR '20JUL '20NOV '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 23 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 1, 20Change Research+1For · Change Research920 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy46 · 50
Oct 26, 20Public Policy Polling+1886 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy48 · 47
Oct 24, 20The Progress Campaign— · unknownD-LEAN——48 · 48
Oct 23, 20Montana State University Billings546 · LVNEUTRAL——48 · 47
Oct 19, 20Siena College/NYT Upshot758 · LVD-LEAND +5.09 tracked0.0aligned46 · 49
Oct 19, 20Strategies 360+1For · NBC Montana500 · LVNEUTRALD +2.53 tracked+2.8d lean47 · 48
Oct 17, 20RMG Research800 · LVD-LEAND +6.68 tracked+2.6d lean47 · 49
Oct 9, 20Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling798 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy48 · 48
Oct 6, 20Emerson College+1500 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned43 · 52
Oct 4, 20Data for Progress+1737 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 47
Oct 1, 20Montana State University Bozeman+11,609 · LVNEUTRAL——49 · 47
Sep 15, 20Siena College/NYT Upshot625 · LVD-LEAND +5.09 tracked0.0aligned44 · 45
Sep 4, 20Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research AssociatesFor · AARP800 · LVNEUTRAL——47 · 50
Aug 1, 20Emerson College+1584 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned44 · 50
Jul 15, 20Spry Strategies700 · LVNEUTRAL——44 · 47
Jul 12, 20Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos873 · RVD-LEAND +4.05 tracked-0.9aligned47 · 49
Jul 9, 20Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling1,224 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy46 · 44
Jun 25, 20University of Montana517 · RVNEUTRAL——47 · 43
Apr 26, 20Montana State University Bozeman459 · LVNEUTRAL——46 · 39
Apr 20, 20The Progress Campaign712 · LVD-LEAN——49 · 46
Mar 12, 20Public Policy Polling903 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy47 · 47
Feb 21, 20University of Montana498 · LVNEUTRAL——47
Oct 2, 19University of Montana+1303 · RVNEUTRAL——64
· 23 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
1Bullock · 50%
Daines · 50%1
RSteve Daines1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump Jr. · son of President Donald Trump
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
DSteve Bullock1 endorser
Most notable · Kamala Harris · U.S. senator from California (2017-2021), 2020 Democratic vice presidential nominee
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Steve BullockS0MT00173 ↗
Receipts
$49.5M
Disburse
$48.6M
Cash on hand
$949.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Steve DainesS2MT00096 ↗
Receipts
$31.9M
Disburse
$33.2M
Cash on hand
$107.8K
Debts
$44.8K
Top industries
Securities & investment$28.1K
Top contributors
SELF EMPLOYED$398.1K
CHARLES A KLEIN SONS INC$40.9K
LANGLAS ASSOCIATES$33.6K
BLACKSTONE$28.1K
STEELHEAD$28.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$24.7M
D side
$13.1M · 53%
R side
$11.6M · 47%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
For / against split
For Bullock $11.7M
Against Daines $1.4M
Against Bullock $2.0M
For Daines $9.6M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$9.7M39%for Steve Daines
THE LINCOLN PROJECTD$6.8M27%for Steve Bullock
FAMILY FRIENDLY ACTION PACD$3.1M13%for Steve Bullock
SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDR$889.0K4%for Steve Daines
MONTANA HUNTERS AND ANGLERS LEADERSHIP FUNDD$800.0K3%for Steve Bullock
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$550.7K2%for Steve Bullock
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$500.0K2%against Steve Daines
SMPD$490.5K2%against Steve Daines
FREEDOMWORKS FOR AMERICAR$362.5K1%for Steve Daines

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup2
Lean R3
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 28
DDHQ
Lean R
Nov 2
538
Lean R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Tossup
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified23 / 23deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks