Races · Senate · 2020 · Alaska

Senate · class II · open seat

Alaska Senate

Alabama Senate →

Likely RR +10.3 forecast· 16 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
4% (D)
96% Sullivan (R)
Win probability
Democrat4% (D)
Dan Sullivan96% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +10.3
80% CIR+22.3 → D+1.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +10.3 · 80% CI R+22.3 → D+1.7
Actual result R+12.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+22.3 (10th pctile) to D+1.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +10.3

80% CI: R +22.3 → D +1.7 · win prob 4%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	16
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+12.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
303540455055SULLIVAN 46.3GROSS 44.3JUL '20SEP '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 16 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 27, 20	Gravis Marketing+1	770 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.933 tracked	+0.1aligned	48
Oct 19, 20	Public Policy Polling	800 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	44
Oct 18, 20	Change Research+1	1,076 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.718 tracked	+5.7noisy	47
Oct 17, 20	Change Research	1,076 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +3.718 tracked	+5.7noisy	47
Oct 13, 20	Siena College/NYT Upshot	423 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.09 tracked	0.0aligned	45
Oct 12, 20	Harstad Strategic Research, Inc.	606 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	46
Oct 11, 20	Harstad Strategic Research	606 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	46
Oct 5, 20	Harstad Strategic Research, Inc.	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	46
Oct 3, 20	Patinkin Research Strategies	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.43 tracked	—	46
Oct 3, 20	Alaska Survey Research+1	696 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+5.3decoupled	48
Oct 3, 20	Harstad Strategic Research	600 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	46
Sep 22, 20	Harstad Strategic Research, Inc.	602 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	46
Aug 27, 20	Public Policy Polling	638 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	43
Jul 7, 20	Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling	1,081 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	39
Jul 6, 20	Alaska Survey Research+1	663 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+5.3decoupled	53
Jun 3, 19	Patinkin Research Strategies	500 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.43 tracked	—	42

· 16 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

Sullivan · 100%2
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Dan Sullivan2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RDan Sullivan2 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States

Celebrity1

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

IAl Gross0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-07

Dan SullivanS4AK00214 ↗

Receipts

$9.0M

Disburse

$9.4M

Cash on hand

$731.7K

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$55.9K

Lawyers / law firms$28.0K

Govt employees$14.3K

Top contributors

ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT$36.3K

GOLDMAN SACHS$28.2K

CALFEE HALTER & GRISWOLD, LLP$28.0K

BLACKSTONE$27.7K

RPM INTERNATIONAL INC.$20.1K

Al GrossS0AK00196 ↗

Receipts

$19.6M

Disburse

$19.5M

Cash on hand

$26.8K

Debts

$154.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$15.4M

D side

$15.1M · 98%

R side

$292.5K · 2%

Top spender

NORTH STAR

For / against split

Against Sullivan $15.1M

For Sullivan $292.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NORTH STAR	D	$13.1M	85%	against Dan Sullivan
NRSC	D	$7.3M	48%	against Al Gross
INDEPENDENT ALASKA	D	$1.0M	7%	against Dan Sullivan
PROTECTING OUR VALUES	D	$978.0K	6%	against Dan Sullivan
LCV VICTORY FUND	I	$645.3K	4%	for Al Gross
SENATE LEADERSHIP FUND	D	$308.1K	2%	against Al Gross
314 ACTION FUND	D	$133.7K	1%	against Dan Sullivan
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	I	$133.0K	1%	for Al Gross

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean R4

Likely R1

The Cook Political Report

Lean R

Oct 28

DDHQ

Lean R

Nov 2

FiveThirtyEight

Likely R

Nov 1

Inside Elections

Lean R

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified13 / 16deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-07

Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks