Races · Senate · 2020 · South Carolina
Senate · class II · open seat
Jaime Harrison vs Lindsey Graham
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 96% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+22.6 (10th pctile) to D+1.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +10.6
80% CI: R +22.6 → D +1.4 · win prob 4%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 46 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+10.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 46 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 20 | 0ptimus+1 | 817 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.64 tracked | -1.3aligned | 41 · 51 |
| Oct 31, 20 | Data for Progress+1 | 1,121 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.151 tracked | +0.8aligned | 46 · 49 |
| Oct 31, 20 | Swayable+1For · Swayable | 416 · LV | D-LEAN | D +7.817 tracked | +2.5d lean | 52 · 46 |
| Oct 30, 20 | Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult | 904 · LV | D-LEAN | D +5.230 tracked | +1.8aligned | 44 · 46 |
| Oct 26, 20 | Data for Progress+1 | 1,196 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.151 tracked | +0.8aligned | 46 · 46 |
| Oct 25, 20 | Starboard Communications | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 43 · 52 |
| Oct 24, 20 | East Carolina University | 763 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.88 tracked | -0.5aligned | 47 · 49 |
| Oct 19, 20 | Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult | 926 · LV | D-LEAN | D +5.230 tracked | +1.8aligned | 47 · 45 |
| Oct 15, 20 | Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies | 525 · LV | D-LEAN | — | — | 47 · 45 |
| Oct 13, 20 | Siena College/NYT Upshot | 605 · LV | D-LEAN | D +5.09 tracked | 0.0aligned | 40 · 46 |
Endorsements · 59 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet51
8
Endorsements tracked
Jaime Harrison51 · 86%
Lindsey Graham8 · 14%
Total59
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJaime Harrison51 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), former Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials22
Federal 2State 4Local 2
Elected officials · 22
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), former Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
- Joe Biden · 47th vice president of the United States (2009–2017), Democratic nominee for the 2020 United States presidential election .
- Jim Hodges · former governor of South Carolina (1999–2003).
- Steve Bullock · Governor of Montana (2013–2021), former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Alison L. Grimes · former secretary of state of Kentucky (2012–2020).
- Amy Klobuchar · senator for Minnesota (2007–present), former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Andrew Gillum · former mayor of Tallahassee, Florida (2014–2018); Democratic nominee for governor in 2018 .
- Barbara Boxer · former senator for California (1993–2017).
- Bill de Blasio · Mayor of New York City, New York (2014–2021), former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Cory Booker · senator for New Jersey (2013–present), former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Elizabeth Warren · senator for Massachusetts (2013–present), former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Eric Swalwell · representative for California's 15th Congressional District (2013–present), former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Joe Walsh · former representative for Illinois' 8th Congressional District (2011–2013), former candidate for 2020 Republican presidential nomination
- John Delaney · former representative for Maryland's 6th Congressional District (2013–2019), former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Julian Castro · former HUD Secretary (2014–2017), former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Kamala Harris · senator for California (2017–2021), Vice Presidential nominee and former candidate for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Kirsten Gillibrand · senator for New York (2009–present), former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Pete Buttigieg · former mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020) and former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Tim Ryan · representative for Ohio's 13th Congressional District (2003–2023), former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · representative for New York's 14th Congressional District (2019–present).
- Jim Clyburn · representative from South Carolina (1993–present).
- Tom Perriello · former representative for Virginia's 5th Congressional District (2009–2011).
Other12
Other · 12
- Andy Lassner · executive producer of The Ellen DeGeneres Show .
- Climate Hawks Vote
- Democracy for America
- End Citizens United
- Everytown for Gun Safety
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- MoveOn
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Organization for Women
- Population Connection
- Students for Gun Legislation
Celebrity9
Celebrity · 9
- Alex Hirsch · animator, writer and voice actor
- Bradley Whitford · actor.
- Charlie Adler · voice actor and activist
- Chelsea Handler · actress and comedian.
- Dean Obeidallah · comedian and host of The Dean Obeidallah Show .
- Jane Lynch · actress.
- Mark Hamill · actor, voice actor, and writer.
- Sarah Paulson · actress.
- Shonda Rhimes · television producer, television and film writer, and author.
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- David Pepper · chair of the Ohio Democratic Party (2015–2020).
- Congressional Black Caucus
- Council for a Livable World
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- The Collective PAC
RLindsey Graham8 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials6
Federal 2State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Mike Pence · 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Henry McMaster · Governor of South Carolina (2017–present)
- Pamela Evette · Lieutenant Governor of South Carolina (2019–present)
- Alan Wilson · Attorney General of South Carolina (2011–present)
- Mark Hammond · Secretary of State of South Carolina (2003–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- National Right to Life Committee
Other1
Other · 1
- Curtis Loftis · Treasurer of South Carolina (2011–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-18Jaime HarrisonS0SC00289 ↗
Receipts
$132.7M
Disburse
$132.4M
Cash on hand
$335.4K
Debts
$2.3K
Top industries
Internet$398.4K
Internet · $398.4K
- Google · $300.3K
- Facebook · $98.1K
Individuals $398.4K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$310.6K
Computers / electronics · $310.6K
- Microsoft · $113.2K
- Amazon · $80.8K
- Apple · $71.8K
- Apple INC · $44.8K
Individuals $310.6K · PACs $0
Education$145.3K
Education · $145.3K
- Stanford University · $53.0K
- Columbia University · $46.9K
- University of Washington · $45.3K
Individuals $145.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
GOOGLE$300.3K
MICROSOFT$113.2K
FACEBOOK$98.1K
AMAZON$80.8K
APPLE$71.8K
Lindsey GrahamS0SC00149 ↗
Receipts
$107.7M
Disburse
$98.5M
Cash on hand
$12.5M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$25.5K
Securities & investment · $25.5K
- Blackstone · $25.5K
Individuals $25.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
RDL, INC.$54.0K
CHARLES A. KLEIN SONS INC.$26.5K
BLACKSTONE$25.5K
HERMAN KATZ ET AL$25.0K
PALMETTO SURETY$24.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$40.7M
D side
$13.9M · 34%
R side
$26.8M · 66%
Top spender
SECURITY IS STRENGT…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SECURITY IS STRENGTH PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $20.8M | 51% | against Jaime Harrison |
| MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $5.0M | 12% | for Jaime Harrison |
| OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $4.9M | 12% | for Lindsey Graham |
| LMG PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.6M | 7% | for Jaime Harrison |
| THE LINCOLN PROJECT super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.5M | 6% | against Lindsey Graham |
| NRDC ACTION VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.0M | 5% | against Lindsey Graham |
| SENATE LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $452.7K | 1% | against Jaime Harrison |
| COLOROFCHANGE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $251.4K | 1% | for Jaime Harrison |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 28
Tilt R1
Tilt R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
Lean R2
Lean R · 2 raters
- DDHQ · Nov 2
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- 538 · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
TossupDDHQ
Lean R538
Likely RInside Elections
Tilt RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified43 / 46deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-18
Endorsements59 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks