NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new·Methodology·Send feedback
Pollster · 288 of 1769

Mason-Dixon

GRADE CWEIGHT TIER T5NEUTRAL LEAN</> Embed
Polls scored
49
Mean error
5.6 pt
Signed bias
D+0.20
Aggregation weight
0.73
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components
52
of 100 · tier · moderate

Moderate quality. Worth checking individual signals before relying on this pollster's headline.

Aggregator weight37
Verification rate11
Sample size median67
Citation rate97
Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured
Rater alignment79
Pollster vs editorial consensus
noisy

Across 18 graded races, Mason-Dixon's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of -2.9pp. Noisy — high variance vs the consensus, hard to characterize.

Mean delta
-2.9pp
Median delta
-2.8pp
Std-dev
8.1pp
N graded
18
Recent activity
Total all time
171
Last 30d
3
Last 90d
5
Last 180d
7

Last poll 6/14/2026 (22d ago)· status active

Per-cycle debrief appearances
CycleRankPollsMAESigned bias
2012#12 / 1278.22 ptR+8.22 pp
2010#14 / 2165.41 ptD+2.55 pp
2004#5 / 1083.60 ptD+0.57 pp
Recent polls