NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · Senate · 2020 · Kentucky
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
Senate · class II · open seat

Amy McGrath vs Mitch McConnell

← Kansas SenateLouisiana Senate →
Safe RR +16.7 forecast· 25 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% McGrath (D)
99% McConnell (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +16.7 · 80% CI R+28.7 → R+4.7
Actual result R+19.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.7 (10th pctile) to R+4.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +16.7
80% CI: R +28.7 → R +4.7 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used25
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+19.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

0510152025303540455055MCCONNELL 51.5MCGRATH 39.5BARRON 4.6BOOKER 38.0JUN '20AUG '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 25 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 31, 20Swayable+2For · Swayable365 · LVD-LEAND +7.817 tracked+2.5d lean46 · 49
Oct 30, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult911 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned40 · 51
Oct 27, 20Bluegrass Community & Technical College+1250 · RVNEUTRAL——40 · 50
Oct 25, 20Morning Consult911 · unknownD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned40 · 51
Oct 19, 20CygnalFor · Cygnal640 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned40 · 50
Oct 18, 20Cygnal640 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned40 · 50
Oct 14, 20Mason-Dixon+1For · Louisville Public Media625 · LVNEUTRALR +0.128 tracked-2.9noisy42 · 51
Sep 19, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult746 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned37 · 52
Sep 18, 20Data for Progress+1807 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned39 · 46
Sep 14, 20Morning Consult746 · unknownD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned37 · 52
Sep 13, 20Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University1,164 · LVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned41 · 53
Aug 2, 20Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University909 · RVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned44 · 49
Aug 1, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult793 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned36 · 53
Jul 28, 20Bluegrass Data+13,020 · RVD-LEAN——46 · 49
Jul 15, 20Spry Strategies600 · LVNEUTRAL——33 · 55
Jul 11, 20Garin-Hart-Yang Research800 · LVNEUTRAL——41 · 45
Jun 14, 20Civiqs/Data for Progress898 · RVNEUTRAL——33 · 53
Jun 14, 20Civiqs/Data for Progress898 · RVNEUTRAL——38 · 52
May 23, 20RMG Research500 · RVD-LEAND +6.68 tracked+2.6d lean41 · 40
May 14, 20Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling1,104 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy47
Apr 11, 20Bluegrass Data+14,000 · RVD-LEAN——38 · 40
Jan 20, 20Change Research+2For · Politico1,281 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy41 · 41
Jan 12, 20Garin-Hart-Yang Research+1For · Politico802 · LVNEUTRAL——40 · 43
Jul 30, 19Fabrizio Ward600 · LVNEUTRAL——46 · 47
Jun 15, 19Change Research+2For · Kentucky Today1,629 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy45 · 47
· 25 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMitch McConnell0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAmy McGrath0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LBrad Barron0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCharles Booker0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Amy McGrathS0KY00339 ↗
Receipts
$96.3M
Disburse
$92.9M
Cash on hand
$3.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Brad BarronS0KY00396 ↗
Receipts
$126.6K
Disburse
$115.9K
Cash on hand
$12.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Insurance$2.8K
Lawyers / law firms$2.8K
Top contributors
HOUSEWIFE$5.6K
3M$5.6K
MORNING STAR CO$5.6K
FRUIT OF THE LOOM$4.2K
HUMANA$2.8K
Mitch McConnellS2KY00012 ↗
Receipts
$68.1M
Disburse
$64.9M
Cash on hand
$6.8M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$204.4K
Insurance$76.2K
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$112.8K
CHARLES A. KLEIN SONS INC.$79.5K
UPS$73.6K
C. C. CLARK, INC.$64.6K
CAPITAL GROUP COMPANIES$48.8K
Charles BookerS0KY00420 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$12.6M
D side
$9.9M · 79%
R side
$2.7M · 21%
Top spender
DITCH FUND
For / against split
For McGrath $9.2M
Against McConnell $686.6K
Against McGrath $2.6M
For McConnell $22.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DITCH FUNDD$8.4M67%for Amy McGrath
TRUE KENTUCKY PATRIOTSL$6.4M51%for Brad Barron
KEEP KENTUCKY GREATR$2.6M21%against Amy McGrath
SAVE AMERICA FUNDD$1.1M9%for Amy McGrath
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$436.7K3%against Mitch McConnell
INDIVISIBLE ACTIOND$248.2K2%for Charles Booker
THE COLLECTIVE SUPER PACD$197.9K2%for Charles Booker
NEW POWER PACD$151.4K1%for Charles Booker
PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECTD$137.0K1%for Amy McGrath
THE PEOPLE'S CAMPAIGND$66.6K1%against Mitch McConnell

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R2
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Oct 28
DDHQ
Safe R
Nov 2
538
Safe R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified22 / 25deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks