| 11/7/2022 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 722 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1280d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1280d old Poll was fielded 1280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 52.0 · Charlie Crist 48.0 | pollarch |
| 11/6/2022 | Research Co. | 1.01 | —(D+1.5) | 450 | — | LV | 🟡1281d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 54.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 | pollarch |
| 11/6/2022 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 1436 | — | LV | 🟡1281d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Ron DeSantis 57.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 | pollarch |
| 11/2/2022 | Amber Integrated | 0.43 | L(D+7.8) | 600 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.43🟡1285d old+3- 🟠
weight 0.43 Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.8pt vs editors Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 53.0 · Charlie Crist 40.0 | pollarch |
| 11/2/2022 | Civiqs | 0.99 | L(D+2.5) | 772 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.5pt🟡1285d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.5pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt. - 🟡
1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 54.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2022 | InsiderAdvantage | 0.92 | R(R+2.6) | 550 | — | LV | 🟡bias R+2.6pt🟡1286d old+4- 🟡
bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. - 🟡
1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: FOX 35 News said Commissioned by FOX 35 News said, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 53.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2022 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 659 | — | LV | 🟡1286d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Ron DeSantis 54.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2022 | Victory Insights | 0.55 | L(D+4.0) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡1286d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 54.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2022 | Florida State University/YouGov | 1.00 | — | 1117 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1287d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
university-sponsored: Florida State University Institute of Politics shows Gov Commissioned by Florida State University Institute of Politics shows Gov, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Ron DeSantis 53.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2022 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 633 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1290d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 47.0 · Charlie Crist 53.0 | pollarch |
| 10/24/2022 | University of North Florida | 0.81 | L(D+5.0) | 622 | — | LV | 🟡1294d old🟡D+8.6pt vs editors+2- 🟡
1294d old Poll was fielded 1294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 55.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/23/2022 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 1251 | — | LV | 🟡1295d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1295d old Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Ron DeSantis 54.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/23/2022 | Cherry Communications | 0.63 | —(D+3.8) | 601 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1295d old+3- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1295d old Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 53.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/20/2022 | Stetson University | 1.00 | — | 644 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1298d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1298d old Poll was fielded 1298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 53.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 | pollarch |
| 10/16/2022 | Florida Atlantic University | 1.34 | —(D+2.4) | 719 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1302d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1302d old Poll was fielded 1302 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Charlie Crist 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/16/2022 | YouGov | 1.00 | —(D+3.7) | 832 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡1302d old+2- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1302d old Poll was fielded 1302 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 53.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 | pollarch |
| 10/15/2022 | Sachs Media | 1.00 | — | 600 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1303d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1303d old Poll was fielded 1303 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 52.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/13/2022 | RMG Research | 0.60 | L(D+6.6) | 685 | — | LV | 🟡1305d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+1- 🟡
1305d old Poll was fielded 1305 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 52.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/11/2022 | African American Research Collaborative | 1.00 | L | 1250 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1307d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 46.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 | pollarch |
| 9/28/2022 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1.00 | — | 800 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1320d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1320d old Poll was fielded 1320 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 52.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 | pollarch |
| 9/27/2022 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 1.04 | L(D+3.9) | 2860 | — | LV | 🟡1321d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1321d old Poll was fielded 1321 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=2,860 Sample size of 2,860 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Ron DeSantis 47.0 · Charlie Crist 46.0 | pollarch |
| 9/25/2022 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 669 | — | LV | 🟡1323d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1323d old Poll was fielded 1323 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Ron DeSantis 49.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 | pollarch |
| 9/21/2022 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 700 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1327d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1327d old Poll was fielded 1327 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 47.0 · Charlie Crist 53.0 | pollarch |
| 9/20/2022 | Civiqs | 0.99 | L(D+2.5) | 617 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.5pt🟡1328d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.5pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt. - 🟡
1328d old Poll was fielded 1328 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 52.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 | pollarch |
| 9/18/2022 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡1330d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1330d old Poll was fielded 1330 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 48.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 | pollarch |
| 9/10/2022 | Sachs Media | 1.00 | — | 600 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1338d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1338d old Poll was fielded 1338 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 | pollarch |
| 9/10/2022 | Survey Monkey | 1.00 | L | 999 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1338d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1338d old Poll was fielded 1338 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 49.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 | pollarch |
| 9/7/2022 | Echelon Insights | 1.00 | —(R+1.0) | 815 | — | LV | 🟡1341d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 52.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 | pollarch |
| 9/6/2022 | InsiderAdvantage | 0.92 | R(R+2.6) | 550 | — | LV | 🟡bias R+2.6pt🟡1342d old+3- 🟡
bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. - 🟡
1342d old Poll was fielded 1342 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 50.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 | pollarch |
| 9/4/2022 | Susquehanna Polling and Research | 1.73 | R(R+1.5) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1344d old+3- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1344d old Poll was fielded 1344 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Ron DeSantis 47.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 | pollarch |
| 9/2/2022 | Neighborhood Research and Media | 1.00 | — | 362 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡n=362+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
n=362 Sample size of 362 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.2pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
1346d old Poll was fielded 1346 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 50.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 | pollarch |
| 8/31/2022 | Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research | 1.00 | L | 500 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1348d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1348d old Poll was fielded 1348 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 50.0 · Charlie Crist 47.0 | pollarch |
| 8/30/2022 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 1.04 | L(D+3.9) | 3017 | — | LV | 🟡1349d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1349d old Poll was fielded 1349 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=3,017 Sample size of 3,017 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Ron DeSantis 48.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 | pollarch |
| 8/18/2022 | Impact Research | 1.00 | L | 800 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1361d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1361d old Poll was fielded 1361 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Charlie Crist 46.0 | pollarch |
| 8/15/2022 | Cherry Communications | 0.63 | —(D+3.8) | 608 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1364d old+3- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1364d old Poll was fielded 1364 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 | pollarch |
| 8/15/2022 | Cherry Communications | 0.63 | —(D+3.8) | 608 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1364d old+3- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1364d old Poll was fielded 1364 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 50.0 · Nikki Fried 43.0 | pollarch |
| 8/12/2022 | University of North Florida | 0.81 | L(D+5.0) | 1624 | — | RV | 🟡1367d old🟡D+8.6pt vs editors+3- 🟡
1367d old Poll was fielded 1367 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
n=1,624 Sample size of 1,624 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Ron DeSantis 50.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 | pollarch |
| 8/12/2022 | University of North Florida | 0.81 | L(D+5.0) | 1624 | — | RV | 🟡1367d old🟡D+8.6pt vs editors+3- 🟡
1367d old Poll was fielded 1367 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
n=1,624 Sample size of 1,624 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Ron DeSantis 50.0 · Nikki Fried 43.0 | pollarch |
| 7/31/2022 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 1.04 | L(D+3.9) | 2244 | — | LV | 🟡1379d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1379d old Poll was fielded 1379 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=2,244 Sample size of 2,244 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Ron DeSantis 47.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0 | pollarch |
| 7/31/2022 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 1.04 | L(D+3.9) | 2244 | — | LV | 🟡1379d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1379d old Poll was fielded 1379 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=2,244 Sample size of 2,244 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Ron DeSantis 49.0 · Nikki Fried 43.0 | pollarch |
| 7/31/2022 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 1.04 | L(D+3.9) | 2244 | — | LV | 🟡1379d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1379d old Poll was fielded 1379 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=2,244 Sample size of 2,244 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Ron DeSantis 48.0 | pollarch |
| 6/4/2022 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 714 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1436d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1436d old Poll was fielded 1436 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 49.0 · Charlie Crist 51.0 | pollarch |
| 5/9/2022 | Phillips Academy | 0.79 | —(R+1.2) | 543 | — | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡1462d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1462d old Poll was fielded 1462 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 36.0 · Charlie Crist 35.0 | pollarch |
| 3/12/2022 | Saint Leo University | 1.00 | —(D+8.5) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1520d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1520d old Poll was fielded 1520 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 49.0 · Charlie Crist 33.0 | pollarch |
| 3/12/2022 | Saint Leo University | 1.00 | —(D+8.5) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1520d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1520d old Poll was fielded 1520 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Nikki Fried 27.0 | pollarch |
| 3/12/2022 | Saint Leo University | 1.00 | —(D+8.5) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1520d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1520d old Poll was fielded 1520 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 49.0 · Annette Taddeo 30.0 | pollarch |
| 2/23/2022 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 1064 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1537d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1537d old Poll was fielded 1537 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 44.0 · Charlie Crist 56.0 | pollarch |
| 2/23/2022 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 1064 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1537d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1537d old Poll was fielded 1537 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 50.0 · Nikki Fried 50.0 | pollarch |
| 2/20/2022 | University of North Florida | 0.81 | L(D+5.0) | 685 | — | RV | 🟡1540d old🟡D+8.6pt vs editors+2- 🟡
1540d old Poll was fielded 1540 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 55.0 · Charlie Crist 34.0 | pollarch |
| 2/20/2022 | University of North Florida | 0.81 | L(D+5.0) | 685 | — | RV | 🟡1540d old🟡D+8.6pt vs editors+2- 🟡
1540d old Poll was fielded 1540 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 55.0 · Nikki Fried 32.0 | pollarch |
| 2/10/2022 | Mason-Dixon | 0.56 | R(R+2.4) | 625 | — | RV | 🟡bias R+2.4pt🟡1550d old+4- 🟡
bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. - 🟡
1550d old Poll was fielded 1550 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 | pollarch |
| 2/10/2022 | Mason-Dixon | 0.56 | R(R+2.4) | 625 | — | RV | 🟡bias R+2.4pt🟡1550d old+4- 🟡
bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. - 🟡
1550d old Poll was fielded 1550 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 53.0 · Nikki Fried 42.0 | pollarch |
| 2/10/2022 | Mason-Dixon | 0.56 | R(R+2.4) | 625 | — | RV | 🟡bias R+2.4pt🟡1550d old+4- 🟡
bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. - 🟡
1550d old Poll was fielded 1550 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 53.0 · Annette Taddeo 37.0 | pollarch |
| 1/29/2022 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡1562d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1562d old Poll was fielded 1562 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 49.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 | pollarch |
| 1/29/2022 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡1562d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1562d old Poll was fielded 1562 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Nikki Fried 40.0 | pollarch |
| 11/19/2021 | St. Pete Polls | 1.44 | L(D+2.2) | 2896 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.2pt🟡1633d old+4- 🟡
bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. - 🟡
1633d old Poll was fielded 1633 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=2,896 Sample size of 2,896 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 | pollarch |
| 11/19/2021 | St. Pete Polls | 1.44 | L(D+2.2) | 2896 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.2pt🟡1633d old+4- 🟡
bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. - 🟡
1633d old Poll was fielded 1633 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=2,896 Sample size of 2,896 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Nikki Fried 42.0 | pollarch |
| 11/9/2021 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1.00 | —(D+5.3) | 867 | — | RV | 🟡1643d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1643d old Poll was fielded 1643 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 44.0 · Charlie Crist 37.0 | pollarch |
| 11/9/2021 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1.00 | —(D+5.3) | 867 | — | RV | 🟡1643d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1643d old Poll was fielded 1643 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 46.0 · Nikki Fried 35.0 | pollarch |
| 10/23/2021 | Saint Leo University | 1.00 | —(D+8.5) | 500 | — | A | 🟡3 scored polls🟡adult sample+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
1660d old Poll was fielded 1660 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Ron DeSantis 47.0 · Charlie Crist 35.0 | pollarch |
| 10/23/2021 | Saint Leo University | 1.00 | —(D+8.5) | 500 | — | A | 🟡3 scored polls🟡adult sample+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
1660d old Poll was fielded 1660 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Ron DeSantis 46.0 · Nikki Fried 33.0 | pollarch |
| 10/23/2021 | Saint Leo University | 1.00 | —(D+8.5) | 500 | — | A | 🟡3 scored polls🟡adult sample+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
1660d old Poll was fielded 1660 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Ron DeSantis 47.0 · Annette Taddeo 28.0 | pollarch |
| 9/27/2021 | VCreek/AMG | 1.00 | R | 405 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1686d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1686d old Poll was fielded 1686 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 47.0 · Charlie Crist 39.0 | pollarch |
| 9/27/2021 | VCreek/AMG | 1.00 | R | 405 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1686d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1686d old Poll was fielded 1686 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 48.0 · Nikki Fried 36.0 | pollarch |
| 9/12/2021 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 1144 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1701d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1701d old Poll was fielded 1701 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 45.0 · Charlie Crist 55.0 | pollarch |
| 9/5/2021 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 1144 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1708d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1708d old Poll was fielded 1708 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 45.0 · Charlie Crist 55.0 | pollarch |
| 9/5/2021 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 1144 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1708d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1708d old Poll was fielded 1708 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 52.0 · Nikki Fried 48.0 | pollarch |
| 8/28/2021 | RMG Research | 0.60 | L(D+6.6) | 1000 | — | RV | 🟡1716d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+1- 🟡
1716d old Poll was fielded 1716 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 45.0 · Charlie Crist 38.0 | pollarch |
| 8/28/2021 | RMG Research | 0.60 | L(D+6.6) | 1000 | — | RV | 🟡1716d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+1- 🟡
1716d old Poll was fielded 1716 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 41.0 · Nikki Fried 38.0 | pollarch |
| 8/24/2021 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1.00 | —(D+5.3) | 1000 | — | RV | 🟡1720d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1720d old Poll was fielded 1720 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 45.0 · Charlie Crist 36.0 | pollarch |
| 8/24/2021 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1.00 | —(D+5.3) | 1000 | — | RV | 🟡1720d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1720d old Poll was fielded 1720 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 45.0 · Nikki Fried 36.0 | pollarch |
| 8/18/2021 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 1000 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1726d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1726d old Poll was fielded 1726 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 43.0 · Charlie Crist 57.0 | pollarch |
| 8/18/2021 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 1000 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1726d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1726d old Poll was fielded 1726 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 46.0 · Nikki Fried 54.0 | pollarch |
| 8/17/2021 | Change Research | 0.61 | L(D+3.7) | 1585 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡1727d old+4- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1727d old Poll was fielded 1727 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,585 Sample size of 1,585 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Ron DeSantis 49.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 | pollarch |
| 8/17/2021 | Change Research | 0.61 | L(D+3.7) | 1585 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡1727d old+4- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1727d old Poll was fielded 1727 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,585 Sample size of 1,585 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Ron DeSantis 49.0 · Nikki Fried 44.0 | pollarch |
| 8/10/2021 | Susquehanna Polling & Research | 1.12 | neutral(D+0.1) | 700 | — | RV | 🟡1734d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+1- 🟡
1734d old Poll was fielded 1734 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 46.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 | pollarch |
| 8/10/2021 | Susquehanna Polling & Research | 1.12 | neutral(D+0.1) | 700 | — | RV | 🟡1734d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+1- 🟡
1734d old Poll was fielded 1734 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 50.0 · Nikki Fried 40.0 | pollarch |
| 8/4/2021 | Cherry Communications | 0.63 | —(D+3.8) | 610 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1740d old+3- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1740d old Poll was fielded 1740 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 | pollarch |
| 8/4/2021 | Cherry Communications | 0.63 | —(D+3.8) | 610 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1740d old+3- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1740d old Poll was fielded 1740 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Nikki Fried 42.0 | pollarch |
| 8/3/2021 | St. Pete Polls | 1.44 | L(D+2.2) | 3952 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.2pt🟡1741d old+4- 🟡
bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. - 🟡
1741d old Poll was fielded 1741 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=3,952 Sample size of 3,952 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 44.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 | pollarch |
| 8/3/2021 | St. Pete Polls | 1.44 | L(D+2.2) | 3952 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.2pt🟡1741d old+4- 🟡
bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. - 🟡
1741d old Poll was fielded 1741 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=3,952 Sample size of 3,952 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 45.0 · Nikki Fried 42.0 | pollarch |
| 6/21/2021 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 716 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1784d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1784d old Poll was fielded 1784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 55.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 | pollarch |
| 6/21/2021 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 1.00 | R | 716 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1784d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1784d old Poll was fielded 1784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 61.0 · Nikki Fried 39.0 | pollarch |
| 5/8/2021 | Cherry Communications | 0.63 | —(D+3.8) | 602 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1828d old+3- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1828d old Poll was fielded 1828 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 | pollarch |
| 5/8/2021 | Cherry Communications | 0.63 | —(D+3.8) | 602 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1828d old+3- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1828d old Poll was fielded 1828 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Nikki Fried 39.0 | pollarch |
| 5/8/2021 | Cherry Communications | 0.63 | —(D+3.8) | 602 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1828d old+3- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1828d old Poll was fielded 1828 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron DeSantis 53.0 · Val Demings 38.0 | pollarch |
| 5/4/2021 | Victory Insights | 0.55 | L(D+4.0) | 600 | — | RV | 🟡1832d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1832d old Poll was fielded 1832 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 53.0 · Charlie Crist 47.0 | pollarch |
| 5/4/2021 | Victory Insights | 0.55 | L(D+4.0) | 600 | — | RV | 🟡1832d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1832d old Poll was fielded 1832 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 53.0 · Nikki Fried 47.0 | pollarch |
| 5/4/2021 | Victory Insights | 0.55 | L(D+4.0) | 600 | — | RV | 🟡1832d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1832d old Poll was fielded 1832 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron DeSantis 54.0 · Val Demings 46.0 | pollarch |
| 3/24/2021 | St. Pete Polls | 1.44 | L(D+2.2) | 1923 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.2pt🟡1873d old+4- 🟡
bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. - 🟡
1873d old Poll was fielded 1873 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,923 Sample size of 1,923 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 45.0 · Nikki Fried 45.0 | pollarch |
| 2/28/2021 | Mason-Dixon | 0.56 | R(R+2.4) | 625 | — | RV | 🟡bias R+2.4pt🟡1897d old+3- 🟡
bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. - 🟡
1897d old Poll was fielded 1897 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 52.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 | pollarch |
| 2/28/2021 | Mason-Dixon | 0.56 | R(R+2.4) | 625 | — | RV | 🟡bias R+2.4pt🟡1897d old+3- 🟡
bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. - 🟡
1897d old Poll was fielded 1897 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron DeSantis 51.0 · Nikki Fried 42.0 | pollarch |
| 9/22/2020 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 620 | — | LV | 🟡2056d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
2056d old Poll was fielded 2056 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Ron DeSantis 42.0 | pollarch |