Races · Governor · 2022 · Florida

Governor · open seat

Charlie Crist vs Ron DeSantis

← Connecticut Governor Georgia Governor →

Safe RR +17.4 forecast· 93 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Crist (D)
99% DeSantis (R)
Win probability
Charlie Crist1% (D)
Ron DeSantis99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +17.4
80% CIR+29.4 → R+5.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +17.4 · 80% CI R+29.4 → R+5.4
Actual result Ron DeSantisJeanette Nuñez +19.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.4 (10th pctile) to R+5.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +17.4

80% CI: R +29.4 → R +5.4 · win prob 1%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	93
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Ron DeSantisJeanette Nuñez +19.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
202530354045505560DESANTIS 53.1CRIST 43.6FRIED 41.1FEB '21JAN '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 93 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 6, 22	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	722 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	48 · 52
Nov 5, 22	Research Co.+1For · Research Co.	450 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.450 tracked	-0.7aligned	41 · 54
Nov 5, 22	Data for Progress+1	1,436 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	42 · 57
Nov 5, 22	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	722 · unknown	R-LEAN	—	—	48 · 52
Nov 1, 22	Amber Integrated+1For · AMBER INTEGRATED	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +7.87 tracked	+8.8d lean	40 · 53
Nov 1, 22	CiviqsFor · Civiqs	772 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.522 tracked	+4.0d lean	45 · 54
Oct 31, 22	InsiderAdvantage+2For · FOX 35 News said	550 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	43 · 53
Oct 31, 22	Siena College+1For · Siena College	659 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.715 tracked	+1.2aligned	42 · 54
Oct 31, 22	Victory InsightsFor · Victory Insights	500 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.05 tracked	+1.0noisy	41 · 54
Oct 30, 22	Florida State University/YouGov+1For · Florida State University Institute of Politics shows Gov	1,117 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	43 · 53
Oct 27, 22	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	633 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	53 · 47
Oct 26, 22	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	633 · unknown	R-LEAN	—	—	53 · 47
Oct 23, 22	University of North FloridaFor · University of North Florida	622 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.87 tracked	+9.5d lean	41 · 55
Oct 22, 22	Data for Progress+1	1,251 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	42 · 54
Oct 22, 22	Cherry Communications+1For · Florida Chamber of Commerce	601 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +3.83 tracked	+9.7decoupled	42 · 53
Oct 19, 22	Stetson University+1	644 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+15.9decoupled	45 · 53
Oct 18, 22	YouGov	832 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	43 · 53
Oct 17, 22	Cherry Communications	601 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +3.83 tracked	+9.7decoupled	42 · 53
Oct 15, 22	Florida Atlantic UniversityFor · Florida Atlantic University	719 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +2.43 tracked	+3.9d lean	40 · 51
Oct 15, 22	YouGov	832 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	43 · 53
Oct 14, 22	Sachs MediaFor · Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	42 · 52
Oct 12, 22	RMG Research	685 · LV	D-LEAN	D +6.68 tracked	+2.6d lean	42 · 52
Oct 10, 22	African American Research Collaborative	1,250 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	41 · 46
Sep 27, 22	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	41 · 52
Sep 26, 22	Clarity Campaign Labs+1For · Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government	2,860 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.98 tracked	+5.2decoupled	46 · 47
Sep 24, 22	Siena College+1For · Siena College	669 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.715 tracked	+1.2aligned	41 · 49
Sep 20, 22	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	700 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	53 · 47
Sep 20, 22	ActiVote+1	321 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	44 · 56
Sep 19, 22	CiviqsFor · Civiqs	617 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.522 tracked	+4.0d lean	45 · 52
Sep 17, 22	Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.221 tracked	+0.8aligned	41 · 48
Sep 9, 22	Sachs MediaFor · Pinterest	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	45 · 51
Sep 9, 22	Survey Monkey	999 · RV	D-LEAN	—	—	43 · 49
Sep 6, 22	Echelon Insights+1	815 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.36 tracked	+3.3noisy	42 · 52
Sep 5, 22	InsiderAdvantage+1For · FOX 35 Orlando	550 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	45 · 50
Sep 3, 22	Susquehanna Polling and Research+1For · RealClearPolitics	500 · LV	R-LEAN	R +1.53 tracked	+2.4d lean	43 · 47
Sep 1, 22	Neighborhood Research and Media+1	362 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	41 · 50
Aug 30, 22	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1	500 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+0.8aligned	47 · 50
Aug 29, 22	Clarity Campaign Labs+1	3,017 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.98 tracked	+5.2decoupled	45 · 48
Aug 17, 22	Impact Research+1For · Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government	800 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+10.7d lean	46 · 51
Aug 14, 22	Cherry Communications+1For · Florida Chamber of Commerce	608 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +3.83 tracked	+9.7decoupled	43 · 51
Aug 14, 22	Cherry Communications+1For · Florida Chamber of Commerce	608 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +3.83 tracked	+9.7decoupled	43 · 50
Aug 11, 22	University of North Florida+1For · University of North Florida	1,624 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.87 tracked	+9.5d lean	42 · 50
Aug 11, 22	University of North Florida+1For · University of North Florida	1,624 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.87 tracked	+9.5d lean	43 · 50
Jul 30, 22	Clarity Campaign Labs+1For · Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government	2,244 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.98 tracked	+5.2decoupled	44 · 47
Jul 30, 22	Clarity Campaign Labs+1For · Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government	2,244 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.98 tracked	+5.2decoupled	43 · 49
Jul 30, 22	Clarity Campaign Labs+1	2,244 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.98 tracked	+5.2decoupled	48
Jun 3, 22	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	714 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	51 · 49
May 8, 22	Phillips AcademyFor · The Phillips Academy Poll	543 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +1.24 tracked	+1.7aligned	35 · 36
Mar 11, 22	Saint Leo University+1For · Saint Leo University	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +8.53 tracked	—	33 · 49
Mar 11, 22	Saint Leo University+1For · Saint Leo University	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +8.53 tracked	—	27 · 51
Feb 22, 22	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	1,064 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	56 · 44
Feb 22, 22	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	1,064 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	50 · 50
Feb 19, 22	University of North FloridaFor · University of North Florida	685 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.87 tracked	+9.5d lean	34 · 55
Feb 19, 22	University of North FloridaFor · University of North Florida	685 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.87 tracked	+9.5d lean	32 · 55
Feb 9, 22	Mason-Dixon+2For · RealClearPolitics	625 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +0.128 tracked	-2.9noisy	43 · 51
Feb 9, 22	Mason-Dixon+2For · RealClearPolitics	625 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +0.128 tracked	-2.9noisy	42 · 53
Jan 28, 22	Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.221 tracked	+0.8aligned	43 · 49
Jan 28, 22	Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.221 tracked	+0.8aligned	40 · 51
Nov 18, 21	St. Pete Polls+2For · St. Pete Polls	2,896 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.212 tracked	0.0aligned	45 · 51
Nov 18, 21	St. Pete Polls+2For · St. Pete Polls	2,896 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.212 tracked	0.0aligned	42 · 51
Nov 8, 21	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	867 · RV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	37 · 44
Nov 8, 21	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	867 · RV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	35 · 46
Oct 22, 21	Saint Leo University+1For · Saint Leo University	500 · A	NEUTRAL	D +8.53 tracked	—	35 · 47
Oct 22, 21	Saint Leo University+1For · Saint Leo University	500 · A	NEUTRAL	D +8.53 tracked	—	33 · 46
Sep 26, 21	VCreek/AMG	405 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	39 · 47
Sep 26, 21	VCreek/AMG	405 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	36 · 48
Sep 11, 21	The Political Matrix/The Listener GroupFor · Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government	1,144 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	55 · 45
Sep 4, 21	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	1,144 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	55 · 45
Sep 4, 21	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	1,144 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	48 · 52
Aug 27, 21	RMG Research	1,000 · RV	D-LEAN	D +6.68 tracked	+2.6d lean	38 · 45
Aug 27, 21	RMG Research	1,000 · RV	D-LEAN	D +6.68 tracked	+2.6d lean	38 · 41
Aug 23, 21	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1,000 · RV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	36 · 45
Aug 23, 21	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1,000 · RV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	36 · 45
Aug 17, 21	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	1,000 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	57 · 43
Aug 17, 21	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	1,000 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	54 · 46
Aug 16, 21	Change Research+2	1,585 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.718 tracked	+5.7noisy	45 · 49
Aug 16, 21	Change Research+2	1,585 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.718 tracked	+5.7noisy	44 · 49
Aug 9, 21	Susquehanna Polling & Research	700 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +0.07 tracked	+2.3d lean	43 · 46
Aug 9, 21	Susquehanna Polling & Research	700 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +0.07 tracked	+2.3d lean	40 · 50
Aug 3, 21	Cherry Communications+1For · Florida Chamber of Commerce	610 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +3.83 tracked	+9.7decoupled	43 · 51
Aug 3, 21	Cherry Communications+1For · Florida Chamber of Commerce	610 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +3.83 tracked	+9.7decoupled	42 · 51
Aug 2, 21	St. Pete Polls+2	3,952 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.212 tracked	0.0aligned	45 · 44
Aug 2, 21	St. Pete Polls+2	3,952 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.212 tracked	0.0aligned	42 · 45
Jun 20, 21	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	716 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	45 · 55
Jun 20, 21	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	716 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	39 · 61
May 7, 21	Cherry Communications+1For · The Capitolist	602 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +3.83 tracked	+9.7decoupled	41 · 51
May 7, 21	Cherry Communications+1For · The Capitolist	602 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +3.83 tracked	+9.7decoupled	39 · 51
May 3, 21	Victory InsightsFor · Victory Insights	600 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.05 tracked	+1.0noisy	47 · 53
May 3, 21	Victory InsightsFor · Victory Insights	600 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.05 tracked	+1.0noisy	47 · 53
Mar 23, 21	St. Pete Polls+2	1,923 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.212 tracked	0.0aligned	45 · 45
Feb 27, 21	Mason-Dixon+1	625 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +0.128 tracked	-2.9noisy	41 · 52
Feb 27, 21	Mason-Dixon+1	625 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +0.128 tracked	-2.9noisy	42 · 51
Sep 21, 20	Data for Progress+1	620 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	42

· 93 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 6 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DeSantis · 100%6
Endorsements tracked
Charlie Crist0 · 0%
Ron DeSantis6 · 100%
Total6
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RRon DeSantis6 endorsers

Most notable · Rick Scott · U.S. senator from Florida (2019–present), previously Governor (2011-2019)

Other4

Elected officials1

Federal 0State 1Local 0

Organizations1

DCharlie Crist0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DNikki Fried0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R2

Safe R3

The Cook Political Report

Likely R

Jul 21

Elections Daily

Safe R

Nov 6

538

Safe R

Oct 17

Inside Elections

Likely R

Jul 21

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Oct 30

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified88 / 93deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements6 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks