Races · Senate · 2022 · KY
Senate · class II · open seat

Charles Booker vs Rand Paul

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Safe R — · 2 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1569d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 2 results

2 of 2 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
1/22/2022Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625—RV
bias R+2.4pt1569d old+3
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 1569d old
    Poll was fielded 1569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Rand Paul 55.0 · Charles Booker 39.0pollarch
2/4/2021Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625—RV
bias R+2.4pt1921d old+4
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 1921d old
    Poll was fielded 1921 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Courier-Journal
    Commissioned by The Courier-Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Rand Paul 47.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 29 total
Charles Booker (D)
21 endorsements · source
Elected officials (3)
  • Bernie Sanders — U.S. senator from Vermont (2007–present) [ 18 ]
  • Elizabeth Warren — U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2013–present) [ 19 ]
  • John Yarmuth — U.S. representative from Kentucky's 3rd congressional district (2007–2023) [ 20 ]
Organizations / unions (6)
  • AFL–CIO — y AFL–CIO [ 22 ]
  • Communications Workers of America — Louisville Chapter [ 21 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 27 ]
  • National Education Association — [ 23 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 29 ]
  • Working Families Party — [ 31 ]
Other (12)
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • Ben Crump — civil rights lawyer [ 32 ]
  • Brand New Congress — [ 24 ]
  • Democracy for America — [ 25 ]
  • IUE — CWA – Louisville Chapter [ 21 ]
  • Indivisible — [ 26 ]
  • March On — [ 28 ]
  • Sunrise Movement — [ 30 ]
Rand Paul (R)
8 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Allison Ball — Kentucky state treasurer (2016–2024) [ 8 ]
  • Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) [ 7 ]
Other (6)
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • 90 — 100%
  • Club for Growth — [ 9 ]
  • FreedomWorks — [ 10 ]
  • Turning Point Action — [ 11 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-15
Total IE spending
$5.1M
For candidates
$4.5M
Against candidates
$524K
Latest filing: 12/15/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Rand Paul (R)
$4.4M for · $128K against
Cash on hand
$5.4M
Total raised (cycle)
$25.0M
Total spent
$21.4M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Charles Booker (D)
$124K for · $396K against

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Nov 19 — -18.0 —
DDHQ Safe R Jul 20 — -18.0 —
The Economist Safe R Sep 7 — -18.0 —
538 Safe R Jun 30 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Jan 7 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Nov 3 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 52 months ago (1/22/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 7/11/2022 Safe R R+16.0 via polls