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Pollster · 133 of 1769

Fox News

GRADE CWEIGHT TIER T4D-LEAN★ AAPOR TI MEMBER</> Embed
Polls scored
38
Mean error
6.0 pt
Signed bias
D+2.41
Aggregation weight
0.89

Pollster vs prediction market

From 95 race-polls · 8 matched markets
Pre-poll P(D) (avg)
61.8%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
0.0 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+5.7 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Fox News's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components
68
of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight45
Verification rate57
Sample size median87
Citation rate100
Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured
Rater alignment80
Pollster vs editorial consensus
d-lean

Across 54 graded races, Fox News's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +2.7pp. That's a measurable D-lean vs the consensus.

Mean delta
+2.7pp
Median delta
+3.0pp
Std-dev
4.5pp
N graded
54
Recent activity
Total all time
95
Last 30d
6
Last 90d
8
Last 180d
8

Last poll 6/30/2026 (6d ago)· status active

Per-cycle debrief appearances
CycleRankPollsMAESigned bias
2022#7 / 3681.96 ptR+1.25 pp
2018#17 / 2565.12 ptD+3.05 pp
2014#21 / 21310.01 ptD+10.01 pp
Recent polls