Pollster · 133 of 1769
Fox News
Polls scored
38
Mean error
6.0 pt
Signed bias
D+2.41
Aggregation weight
0.89
Pollster vs prediction market
From 95 race-polls · 8 matched marketsPre-poll P(D) (avg)
61.8%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
0.0 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+5.7 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Fox News's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components68
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
d-leanAcross 54 graded races, Fox News's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +2.7pp. That's a measurable D-lean vs the consensus.
Mean delta
+2.7pp
Median delta
+3.0pp
Std-dev
4.5pp
N graded
54
Recent activity
Total all time
95
Last 30d
6
Last 90d
8
Last 180d
8
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #7 / 36 | 8 | 1.96 pt | R+1.25 pp |
| 2018 | #17 / 25 | 6 | 5.12 pt | D+3.05 pp |
| 2014 | #21 / 21 | 3 | 10.01 pt | D+10.01 pp |
Recent polls
- 6/30/2026Georgia · Governor · 2026Bottoms 52.0 · Jackson 47.0
- 6/30/2026Georgia · Senate · 2026Ossoff 56.0 · Collins 43.0
- 6/30/2026Iowa · Governor · 2026Sand 53.0 · Lahn 44.0
- 6/30/2026Iowa · Senate · 2026Turek 50.0 · Hinson 46.0
- 6/29/2026Maine · Governor · 2026Pingree 53.0 · Charles 42.0
- 6/29/2026Maine · Senate · 2026Platner 47.0 · Collins 50.0
- 6/2/2026Ohio · Governor · 2026Acton 50.0 · Ramaswamy 49.0
- 6/2/2026Ohio · Senate (special) · 2026Brown 53.0 · Husted 45.0
- 10/27/2024North Carolina · Governor · 2024Josh Stein 57.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0
- 10/27/2024Michigan · Senate · 2024Elissa Slotkin 51.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0