Races · Governor · 2026 · GA

Governor · open seat

Keisha Lance Bottoms vs Rick Jackson

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Lean D D +4.7 · 176 days to election · 3 polls · 4 markets Last poll 31d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 65% R · market gap 22pp

lean-d · high-tipping · stable · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +5.2

80% CI: R +22.7 → D +12.3 · win prob 35%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	3
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +4.1

80% CI R +7.0 → D +0.8

CV MAE 7.21

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +5.6

80% CI D +2.7 → D +8.6

CV MAE 2.31

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +5.2

80% CI R +22.7 → D +12.3

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 3 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:3 of 3 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
4/9/2026	Echelon Insights	1.00	—(R+1.0)	407	±6.5	LV	high variance vs editorial consensus✓ verified 5d ago+1 high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Jackson 43.0 · Keisha Lance Bottoms 49.0	poll arch
4/9/2026	Echelon Insights	1.00	—(R+1.0)	407	±6.5	LV	high variance vs editorial consensus✓ verified 5d ago+1 high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Burt Jones 43.0 · Keisha Lance Bottoms 49.0	poll arch
4/9/2026	Echelon Insights	1.00	—(R+1.0)	407	±6.5	LV	high variance vs editorial consensus✓ verified 5d ago+1 high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brad Raffensperger 44.0 · Keisha Lance Bottoms 46.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 39 total

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)

39 endorsements · source

Elected officials (25)

Andrew Young — former mayor of Atlanta (1982–1990) [ 67 ]
Bryce Berry — state representative from the 56th district (2025–present) [ 58 ]
Donzella James — state senator from the 35th district (1994–2002, 2009–present) [ 58 ]
Doug Shipman — former president of the Atlanta City Council (2022–2026) [ 58 ]
Elena Parent — state senator from the 42nd district (2015–present) [ 58 ]
Freddie Powell Sims — state senator from the 12th district (2009–present) [ 19 ]
Gavin Newsom — governor of California (2019–present) [ 17 ]
James Woodall — former president of the Georgia NAACP (2019–2021) [ 55 ]
Jason Carter — former state senator from the 42nd district (2010–2015) [ 53 ]
Joe Biden — former president of the United States (2021–2025) [ 17 ]
Karen Lupton — state representative from the 83rd district (2023–present) [ 59 ]
Kim Jackson — state senator from the 41st district (2021-present) [ 59 ]
Long Tran — state representative from the 80th district (2023–present) [ 59 ]
Michelle Au — state representative from the 50th district (2023–present) [ 19 ]
Nadine Thomas — former state senator from the 10th district (1993–2005) [ 65 ]
Nan Orrock — state senator from the 36th district (2007–present) [ 58 ]
Pat Gardner — state representative from the 57th district (2001–2021) [ 19 ]
Phil Olaleye — state representative from the 59th district (2023–present) [ 58 ]
RaShaun Kemp — state senator from the 38th district (2025–present) [ 58 ]
Roy Barnes — former governor of Georgia (1999–2003) [ 67 ]
Saira Draper — state representative from the 90th district (2023–present) [ 58 ]
Sally Harrell — state senator from the 40th district (2019-present) [ 59 ]
Sally Yates — former U.S. deputy attorney general (2015–2017) [ 57 ]
Scott Holcomb — state representative from the 101st district (2011–present) [ 59 ]
Shea Roberts — state representative from the 52nd district (2021–present) [ 59 ]

Organizations / unions (5)

American Federation of Government Employees — [ 65 ]
Georgia Conservation Voters — [ 62 ]
SEIU — Workers United Southern Region [ 19 ]
Southern Regional Council of Carpenters — [ 56 ]
Teamsters — Local 528 [ 60 ]

Other (9)

AFSCME — Local 1644 [ 19 ]
Burrell Ellis — former DeKalb County CEO (2009–2017) [ 65 ]
EMILYs List — [ 66 ]
End Citizens United — [ 61 ]
Georgia Equality — [ 63 ]
IBEW — Local 613 [ 19 ]
Latino Victory Fund — [ 64 ]
Ted Terry — DeKalb County commissioner from the 6th district (2021–present) [ 58 ]
UNITE HERE — Local 23 [ 19 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Sep 11	+4.7	0.0	+4.7
Inside Elections	Tilt R	Aug 28	+4.7	-1.3	+5.9
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Tossup	Mar 19	+4.7	0.0	+4.7

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 4 weeks ago (4/9/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)