Pollster · 178 of 1769
The Trafalgar Group
Polls scored
41
Mean error
5.8 pt
Signed bias
R+4.45
Aggregation weight
0.87
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components76
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
r-leanAcross 98 graded races, The Trafalgar Group's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of -2.6pp. That's a measurable R-lean vs the consensus.
Mean delta
-2.6pp
Median delta
-2.0pp
Std-dev
6.3pp
N graded
98
Recent activity
Total all time
121
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #4 / 26 | 11 | 1.57 pt | D+0.44 pp |
| 2022 | #29 / 36 | 30 | 5.86 pt | R+5.67 pp |
| 2018 | #12 / 25 | 12 | 4.29 pt | R+1.72 pp |
Recent polls
- 11/3/2024Ohio · Senate · 2024Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Bernie Moreno 48.0
- 11/2/2024Arizona · Senate · 2024Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 49.0
- 11/2/2024Michigan · Senate · 2024Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0
- 11/2/2024Pennsylvania · Senate · 2024Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0
- 11/2/2024Wisconsin · Senate · 2024Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0
- 10/27/2024Nevada · Senate · 2024Jacky Rosen 47.0 · Sam Brown 45.0
- 10/27/2024Ohio · Senate · 2024Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Bernie Moreno 47.0
- 10/25/2024Arizona · Senate · 2024Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 46.0
- 10/19/2024Michigan · Senate · 2024Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 45.0
- 10/19/2024Wisconsin · Senate · 2024Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 49.0