Pollster · 134 of 1769
Monmouth University
Polls scored
33
Mean error
5.3 pt
Signed bias
D+3.96
Aggregation weight
0.76
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components53
of 100 · tier · moderate
Moderate quality. Worth checking individual signals before relying on this pollster's headline.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 30 graded races, Monmouth University's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +0.7pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+0.7pp
Median delta
+0.0pp
Std-dev
5.5pp
N graded
30
Recent activity
Total all time
66
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #13 / 19 | 12 | 5.40 pt | D+5.12 pp |
| 2014 | #15 / 21 | 4 | 4.77 pt | D+4.77 pp |
Recent polls
- 10/27/2024Pennsylvania · Senate · 2024Bob Casey Jr. 45.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0
- 10/2/2022Pennsylvania · Governor · 2022Josh Shapiro 54.0 · Doug Mastriano 38.0
- 9/11/2022Pennsylvania · Governor · 2022Josh Shapiro 54.0 · Doug Mastriano 36.0
- 10/18/2020Iowa · Senate · 2020Joni Ernst 47.0 · Theresa Greenfield 47.0
- 10/12/2020Arizona · Senate (special) · 2020Martha McSally 42.0 · Mark Kelly 52.0
- 10/10/2020North Carolina · Senate · 2020Thom Tillis 44.0 · Cal Cunningham 48.0 · Shannon Bray 3.0
- 9/21/2020Iowa · Senate · 2020Joni Ernst 47.0 · Theresa Greenfield 47.0
- 9/14/2020Arizona · Senate (special) · 2020Martha McSally 44.0 · Mark Kelly 50.0
- 8/31/2020North Carolina · Senate · 2020Thom Tillis 45.0 · Cal Cunningham 46.0 · Shannon Bray 2.0
- 8/2/2020Iowa · Senate · 2020Joni Ernst 48.0 · Theresa Greenfield 45.0