Races · Governor · 2022 · PA

Governor · open seat

Josh Shapiro vs Doug Mastriano

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Tilt R — · 51 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1281d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 51 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 51 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:51 of 51 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/6/2022	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	—	LV	1281d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 53.0 · Doug Mastriano 41.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Targoz Market Research	0.77	—(R+1.0)	631	—	LV	1281d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.	Josh Shapiro 52.0 · Doug Mastriano 46.0	poll arch
11/3/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	750	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1284d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1284d old Poll was fielded 1284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 51.0 · Doug Mastriano 43.0	poll arch
11/3/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1097	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1284d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1284d old Poll was fielded 1284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Josh Shapiro 50.0 · Doug Mastriano 45.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Remington Research Group	0.61	neutral(D+0.5)	1180	—	LV	1285d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.5pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 52.0 · Doug Mastriano 40.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1152	—	RV	bias D+2.4pt1285d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 54.0 · Doug Mastriano 39.0	poll arch
11/1/2022	Susquehanna Polling & Research	1.12	neutral(D+0.1)	700	—	LV	1286d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Josh Shapiro 52.0 · Doug Mastriano 38.0	poll arch
10/31/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	—	LV	1287d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Josh Shapiro 50.0 · Doug Mastriano 41.0	poll arch
10/30/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1288d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 52.0 · Doug Mastriano 40.0	poll arch
10/30/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	1005	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1288d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Josh Shapiro 53.0 · Doug Mastriano 37.0	poll arch
10/28/2022	Big Data Poll	0.69	R(R+5.8)	1005	—	LV	3 scored polls1290d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Josh Shapiro 49.0 · Doug Mastriano 44.0	poll arch
10/28/2022	co/efficient	0.71	R(R+5.4)	1716	—	LV	historical bias R+5.4pt1290d old+4 historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=1,716 Sample size of 1,716 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Josh Shapiro 51.0 · Doug Mastriano 41.0	poll arch
10/28/2022	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	460	—	LV	1290d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. university-sponsored: In the final Muhlenberg College Commissioned by In the final Muhlenberg College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 54.0 · Doug Mastriano 40.0	poll arch
10/27/2022	Wick Insights	0.74	R(R+4.0)	1000	—	LV	1291d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 49.0 · Doug Mastriano 43.0	poll arch
10/26/2022	Siena Research/NYT	3.57	—(R+1.1)	620	—	LV	3 scored polls1292d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1292d old Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 3.57 Aggregation weight is 3.57 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Josh Shapiro 53.0 · Doug Mastriano 40.0	poll arch
10/25/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	750	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1293d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1293d old Poll was fielded 1293 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 50.0 · Doug Mastriano 42.0	poll arch
10/24/2022	YouGov/CBS News	1.00	—	1084	—	LV	no scored polls1294d old+4 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1294d old Poll was fielded 1294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. TV-network-sponsored: CBS News Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 54.0 · Doug Mastriano 45.0	poll arch
10/23/2022	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	620	—	RV	1295d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+2 1295d old Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Josh Shapiro 54.0 · Doug Mastriano 32.0	poll arch
10/20/2022	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	972	—	LV	bias R+2.1pt1298d old+3 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 1298d old Poll was fielded 1298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 43.0 · Doug Mastriano 40.0	poll arch
10/20/2022	Echelon Insights	1.00	—(R+1.0)	500	—	LV	1298d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 1298d old Poll was fielded 1298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Josh Shapiro 50.0 · Doug Mastriano 38.0	poll arch
10/19/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1299d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1299d old Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 49.0 · Doug Mastriano 42.0	poll arch
10/17/2022	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	901	—	RV	historical bias D+4.4pt1301d old+2 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1301d old Poll was fielded 1301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Josh Shapiro 56.0 · Doug Mastriano 39.0	poll arch
10/14/2022	Wick Insights	0.74	R(R+4.0)	1013	—	LV	1304d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1304d old Poll was fielded 1304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 49.0 · Doug Mastriano 46.0	poll arch
10/12/2022	Patriot Polling	1.37	R(R+1.4)	857	—	RV	1306d oldno direct cite+3 1306d old Poll was fielded 1306 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. no direct cite We don't have a direct link to this pollster's primary release for this poll — only the Wikipedia source page that aggregates it. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias R+1.4pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.	Josh Shapiro 50.0 · Doug Mastriano 45.0	wiki
10/12/2022	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research	1.00	L	1400	—	LV	no scored polls1306d old+4 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1306d old Poll was fielded 1306 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 53.0 · Doug Mastriano 42.0	poll arch
10/11/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1078	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1307d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Josh Shapiro 53.0 · Doug Mastriano 44.0	poll arch
10/3/2022	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	610	—	RV	historical bias D+5.0pt1315d old+4 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 1315d old Poll was fielded 1315 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. university-sponsored: Monmouth University Polling Institute Commissioned by Monmouth University Polling Institute, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 54.0 · Doug Mastriano 38.0	poll arch
9/30/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1318d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1318d old Poll was fielded 1318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 48.0 · Doug Mastriano 37.0	poll arch
9/26/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	—	LV	1322d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1322d old Poll was fielded 1322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Josh Shapiro 51.0 · Doug Mastriano 41.0	poll arch
9/25/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	1008	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1323d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1323d old Poll was fielded 1323 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Josh Shapiro 51.0 · Doug Mastriano 40.0	poll arch
9/25/2022	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	517	—	RV	1323d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+2 1323d old Poll was fielded 1323 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Josh Shapiro 51.0 · Doug Mastriano 37.0	poll arch
9/24/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1324d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1324d old Poll was fielded 1324 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 52.0 · Doug Mastriano 37.0	poll arch
9/22/2022	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1242	—	RV	bias D+2.4pt1326d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 1326d old Poll was fielded 1326 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 53.0 · Doug Mastriano 40.0	poll arch
9/19/2022	The Phillips Academy Poll	1.00	—	759	—	RV	no scored polls1329d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1329d old Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Josh Shapiro 46.0 · Doug Mastriano 43.0	poll arch
9/16/2022	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	420	—	LV	1332d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1332d old Poll was fielded 1332 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 53.0 · Doug Mastriano 42.0	poll arch
9/15/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1078	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1333d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1333d old Poll was fielded 1333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Josh Shapiro 47.0 · Doug Mastriano 45.0	poll arch
9/12/2022	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	605	—	RV	historical bias D+5.0pt1336d old+4 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 1336d old Poll was fielded 1336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. university-sponsored: Monmouth University Polling Institute Commissioned by Monmouth University Polling Institute, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 54.0 · Doug Mastriano 36.0	poll arch
9/12/2022	YouGov/CBS News	1.00	—	1188	—	LV	no scored polls1336d old+4 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1336d old Poll was fielded 1336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. TV-network-sponsored: CBS News Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 55.0 · Doug Mastriano 44.0	poll arch
9/3/2022	RABA Research	1.00	—	679	—	LV	no scored polls1345d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1345d old Poll was fielded 1345 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Josh Shapiro 47.0 · Doug Mastriano 41.0	poll arch
9/1/2022	Survey Monkey	1.00	L	1012	—	RV	no scored polls1347d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1347d old Poll was fielded 1347 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Josh Shapiro 53.0 · Doug Mastriano 32.0	poll arch
8/23/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1034	—	LV	1356d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1356d old Poll was fielded 1356 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Josh Shapiro 47.0 · Doug Mastriano 44.0	poll arch
8/21/2022	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	522	—	RV	1358d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+2 1358d old Poll was fielded 1358 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Josh Shapiro 48.0 · Doug Mastriano 36.0	poll arch
8/18/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1096	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1361d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1361d old Poll was fielded 1361 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Josh Shapiro 49.0 · Doug Mastriano 45.0	poll arch
8/10/2022	Public Opinion Strategies *	1.00	—	600	—	RV	no scored polls1369d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1369d old Poll was fielded 1369 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Josh Shapiro 51.0 · Doug Mastriano 37.0	poll arch
7/26/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	908	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1384d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1384d old Poll was fielded 1384 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Josh Shapiro 50.0 · Doug Mastriano 40.0	poll arch
7/21/2022	Blueprint Polling	1.00	L	712	—	LV	no scored polls1389d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1389d old Poll was fielded 1389 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Josh Shapiro 51.0 · Doug Mastriano 39.0	poll arch
7/20/2022	Beacon Research	1.00	L	1012	—	RV	no scored polls1390d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1390d old Poll was fielded 1390 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Josh Shapiro 49.0 · Doug Mastriano 35.0	poll arch
7/19/2022	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	1200	—	LV	no scored polls1391d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1391d old Poll was fielded 1391 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Josh Shapiro 50.0 · Doug Mastriano 42.0	poll arch
6/19/2022	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research	1.00	L	1382	—	LV	no scored polls1421d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1421d old Poll was fielded 1421 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 49.0 · Doug Mastriano 46.0	poll arch
6/17/2022	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	535	—	LV	1423d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1423d old Poll was fielded 1423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 48.0 · Doug Mastriano 45.0	poll arch
6/13/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1427d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1427d old Poll was fielded 1427 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Josh Shapiro 44.0 · Doug Mastriano 40.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 132 total

Doug Mastriano (R)

56 endorsements · source

Elected officials (33)

Aaron Kaufer — state representative from 120th district (2015–present) [ 128 ]
Carrie DelRosso — state representative for HD-33 (2021–2022), Member of Oakmont Borough Council (2018–2021) [ 161 ] [ 162 ]
Dan Laughlin — state senator from the 49th district (2017–present) [ 114 ]
Dan Meuser — U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district (2019–present) [ 125 ]
Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) [ 81 ]
Doug Mastriano — state senator from the 33rd district (2019–present) [ 178 ]
Doyle Heffley — state representative from the 122nd district (2011–present) [ 129 ]
Fred Keller — U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2019–2023) [ 123 ]
G.T. Thompson — U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district (2019–present) and 5th district (2009–2019) [ 132 ]
HD-72 — Carnicella, candidate for state representative for HD-72 in 2018 and 2020 and for state senator in SD-35 in 2016 [ 163 ] [ 164 ]
Jake Corman — President pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate (2020–2022), state senator from SD-34 (1999–2022) [ 100 ]
Jeff Coleman — state representative for HD-60 (2001–2004), founder of Churchill Strategies [ 165 ] [ 166 ]
Jenna Ellis — legal advisor to former President Donald Trump [ 134 ]
Jim Cawley — former lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (2011–2015) [ 127 ]
Karen Boback — state representative from 117th district (2007–present) [ 128 ]
Keith Rothfus — former U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2013–2019) [ 126 ]
Kellyanne Conway — former senior counselor to the president (2017–2020) [ 121 ]
Kim Ward — state senator from the 39th district (2009–present), Majority Leader of the Pennsylvania Senate (2020–present) [ 127 ]
Kurt Masser — state representative from the 107th district (2011–present) [ 129 ]
Lisa Baker — state senator from SD-20 (2007–present) [ 128 ]
Mark Schweiker — former governor of Pennsylvania (2001–2003) [ 127 ]
Melissa Hart — U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (2001–2007) [ 83 ]
Newt Gingrich — former U.S. representative from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999), former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999) [ 131 ]
Pat Toomey — U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (2011–2023) [ 138 ]
Rick Saccone — state representative for HD-39 (2011–2019), nominee for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district in 2018 [ 173 ] [ 174 ] [ 175 ]
Rick Santorum — U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and candidate for president in 2012 and 2016 (previously endorsed Corman) [ 122 ]
Robert Smith Walker — former U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district (1977–1997) [ 131 ]
Ronny Jackson — U.S. representative from Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present) and former Physician to the President (2013–2018) [ 121 ]
Rudy Giuliani — former mayor of New York City (1994–2001) [ 135 ]
Russ Diamond — state representative for HD-102 (2015–present) [ 169 ] [ 170 ] [ 60 ]
Steve Bannon — former White House Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor to the President (2017) [ 120 ]
Tom Marino — U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2019) and 10th district (2011–2019) [ 124 ]
[ 177 ] — Flood, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons (2019–2021) [ 177 ] (endorsed Coleman)

Organizations / unions (5)

Pennsylvania Republican Party — [ 141 ]
Robert Gleason — former chair of the Pennsylvania Republican Party (2006–2017) [ 139 ]
[ 130 ] — Gas Workers Association [ 130 ]
[ 133 ] — n Conservative Union [ 133 ]
executive director — r, executive director of Back to School PA PAC [ 176 ] [ 60 ]

Individuals / celebrities (1)

Bill Stepien — former White House Director of Political Affairs (2017–2018) [ 121 ]

Other (17)

10 — 20%
20 — 30%
30 — 40%
40 — 50%
50 — 60%
60 — 70%
70 — 80%
80 — 90%
Gab — alt-tech social media service [ 136 ]
Jersey Shore Area School District — the Jersey Shore Area School District (2019–present) [ 172 ]
Michael Flynn — former National Security Advisor (2017) [ 134 ]
Mike Ditka — former head coach of the Chicago Bears (1982–1992) [ 140 ]
Mike Lindell — founder and CEO of MyPillow [ 137 ]
New Castle, Pennsylvania — Castle, Pennsylvania (2019–present) [ 171 ]
Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district — 's 8th congressional district in 2020 [ 167 ] [ 168 ]
The Philadelphia Inquirer — [ 142 ]
[ 180 ] — or Health Freedom [ 180 ]

Josh Shapiro (D)

76 endorsements · source

Elected officials (39)

Anthony H. Williams — state senator from the 8th District (1999–present), minority whip of the Pennsylvania Senate (2011–present) [ 39 ]
Austin Davis — state representative from the 35th district (2018–2023) and candidate for lieutenant governor [ 33 ]
Bob Casey Jr. — U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (2007–2025) [ 25 ]
Brian Sims — state representative from the 182nd district (2013–2022) [ 38 ]
Dan Frankel — state representative from the 23rd district (1999–present) [ 31 ]
Danilo Burgos — state representative from the 197th district (2019–present) [ 30 ]
Darrell L. Clarke — president of the Philadelphia City Council (2012–present), member of the Philadelphia City Council from the 5th district (1999–present) [ 32 ]
Dave Delloso — state representative from the 162nd district (2019–present) [ 30 ]
Dwight Evans — U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district (2019–present) and 2nd district (2016–2019) [ 29 ]
Ed Gainey — Mayor of Pittsburgh (2022–2026) [ 32 ]
Ed Rendell — former governor of Pennsylvania (2003–2011), chair of the National Governors Association (2008–2009) [ 26 ]
Eddie Day Pashinski — state representative from the 121st district (2007–present) [ 25 ]
Elizabeth Fiedler — state representative for the 184th legislative district (2019–present) [ 22 ]
Emily Kinkead — state representative from the 20th district (2020–present) [ 31 ]
Gerald Mullery — state representative from the 119th district (2011–present) [ 25 ]
Jay Costa — minority leader of the Pennsylvania Senate (2011–present), state senator from the 43rd district (1996–present) [ 32 ]
Jessica Benham — state representative from the 36th district (2021–present) [ 31 ]
Joanna McClinton — state representative from the 191st district (2015–present), minority leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2020–2023) [ 37 ]
Joe Torsella — former Pennsylvania state treasurer (2017–2021) [ 24 ]
Josh Shapiro — Pennsylvania attorney general (2017–2023) [ 59 ] [ 71 ]
Kathy Dahlkemper — Erie County executive (2014–2022) and former U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district (2009–2011) [ 35 ]
Lehigh County — Lehigh County controller (2019–present) ( running for State Senate ) [ 62 ] [ 69 ] [ 70 ]
Madeleine Dean — U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (2019–present) [ 28 ]
Malcolm Kenyatta — state representative from the 181st district (2019–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate [ 30 ]
Marty Flynn — state senator from the 22nd District (2021–present) [ 34 ]
Matt Cartwright — U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district (2019–present) and 17th district (2013–2019) [ 25 ]
Michael B. Carroll — state representative from the 118th district (2007–2022) [ 25 ]
Mike Zabel — state representative from the 163rd district (2019–present) [ 30 ]
Paige Gebhardt Cognetti — Mayor of Scranton (2020–present) [ 34 ]
Pat Harkins — state representative from the 1st district (2007–present) [ 35 ]
Patty Kim — state representative from the 103rd district (2013–present) [ 36 ]
Robert Merski — state representative from the 2nd district (2019–present) [ 35 ]
Sharif Street — state senator from the 3rd district (2017–present) [ 30 ]
Susan Wild — U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district (2019–present) and 15th district (2018–2019) [ 30 ]
Tim Kearney — state senator from the 26th district (2019–present) [ 30 ]
Tom Wolf — governor of Pennsylvania (2015–2023) [ 27 ]
Vincent Hughes — state senator from the 7th district (1994–present) [ 30 ]
Wilkes-Barre — mayor of Wilkes-Barre (2020–present) [ 25 ]
lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania — governor of Pennsylvania in 2018 [ 60 ]

Newspapers (1)

The Philadelphia Tribune — [ 73 ]

Organizations / unions (16)

AFL–CIO — [ 42 ]
Allegheny County Labor Council — [ 31 ]
Amalgamated Transit Union — [ 43 ]
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees — [ 44 ]
Democratic Governors Association — [ 48 ]
Eastern Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters — [ 34 ]
Greater Pennsylvania Regional Council of Carpenters — [ 44 ]
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers — [ 44 ]
International Brotherhood of Teamsters — [ 46 ]
International Union of Operating Engineers — [ 44 ]
Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 51 ]
Laborers' International Union of North America — [ 47 ]
Marcel Groen — former chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party (2015–2018) [ 41 ]
Pennsylvania Democratic Party — [ 55 ]
Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 31 ]
Sheet Metal Workers' International Association — [ 44 ]

Other (20)

40 — 50%
50 — 60%
60 — 70%
70 — 80%
80 — 90%
Black Lives Matter — ctivist for Black Lives Matter and mother of Antwon Rose [ 66 ]
Democratic Jewish Outreach PA — [ 49 ]
Giffords — [ 50 ]
International Brotherhood of Boilermakers — Local #154 [ 45 ]
LGBTQ Victory Fund — [ 75 ]
Larry Krasner — District Attorney of Philadelphia (2018–present) [ 40 ]
Marc Zumoff — former play-by-play announcer for the Philadelphia 76ers [ 57 ]
Mark Kelly Tyler — pastor of Mother Bethel A.M.E. Church [ 56 ]
MeidasTouch — [ 52 ]
NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 53 ]
Penn State College Democrats — [ 54 ]
Rich Fitzgerald — Allegheny County executive (2012–present) [ 31 ]
SEIU — [ 31 ]
Steve Irwin — banking commissioner of Pennsylvania (2006–2014) ( ran unsuccessfully for Congress ) [ 64 ] [ 65 ]
UFCW — Local #1776 Keystone State [ 25 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	Sep 29	—	+9.0	—
Elections Daily	Likely D	Nov 7	—	+9.0	—
538	Safe D	Oct 28	—	+18.0	—
Inside Elections	Lean D	Oct 7	—	+3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	Sep 28	—	+9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (11/6/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/3/2026 Tilt R via pvi