Races · Governor · 2022 · Pennsylvania
Governor · open seat
Josh Shapiro vs Doug Mastriano
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 98% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.9 (10th pctile) to D+24.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.9
80% CI: D +0.9 → D +24.9 · win prob 98%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 54 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+14.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 54 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Research Co.+1For · Research Co. | 450 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 53 · 41 |
| Nov 5 | Targoz Market ResearchFor · PollSmart MR | 631 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.712 tracked | +4.3noisy | 52 · 46 |
| Nov 2 | InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage | 750 · LV | R-LEAN | R +2.838 tracked | -0.5aligned | 51 · 43 |
| Nov 2 | The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group | 1,097 · LV | R-LEAN | R +3.553 tracked | -2.6r lean | 50 · 45 |
| Nov 1 | Remington Research Group+1 | 1,180 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.211 tracked | +1.6aligned | 52 · 40 |
| Nov 1 | Marist College+1For · Marist College | 1,152 · RV | D-LEAN | D +2.025 tracked | +1.7aligned | 54 · 39 |
| Oct 31 | Susquehanna Polling & ResearchFor · RealClearPolitics | 700 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.07 tracked | +2.3d lean | 52 · 38 |
| Oct 30 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 50 · 41 |
| Oct 29 | Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.221 tracked | +0.8aligned | 52 · 40 |
| Oct 29 | Fox NewsFor · Fox News | 1,005 · RV | D-LEAN | D +2.121 tracked | +2.7d lean | 53 · 37 |
Endorsements · 115 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet71
44
Endorsements tracked
Josh Shapiro71 · 62%
Doug Mastriano44 · 38%
Total115
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJosh Shapiro71 endorsers
Most notable · Anthony H. Williams · state senator from the 8th District (1999–present), minority whip of the Pennsylvania Senate (2011–present)
Elected officials39
Federal 7State 28Local 3
Elected officials · 39
- Anthony H. Williams · state senator from the 8th District (1999–present), minority whip of the Pennsylvania Senate (2011–present)
- Jay Costa · minority leader of the Pennsylvania Senate (2011–present), state senator from the 43rd district (1996–present)
- Joanna McClinton · state representative from the 191st district (2015–present), minority leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2020–2023)
- Ed Rendell · former governor of Pennsylvania (2003–2011), chair of the National Governors Association (2008–2009)
- Tom Wolf · governor of Pennsylvania (2015–2023)
- lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania · governor of Pennsylvania in 2018
- Bob Casey Jr. · U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (2007–2025)
- Marty Flynn · state senator from the 22nd District (2021–present)
- Sharif Street · state senator from the 3rd district (2017–present)
- Tim Kearney · state senator from the 26th district (2019–present)
- Vincent Hughes · state senator from the 7th district (1994–present)
- Josh Shapiro · Pennsylvania attorney general (2017–2023)
- Austin Davis · state representative from the 35th district (2018–2023) and candidate for lieutenant governor
- Brian Sims · state representative from the 182nd district (2013–2022)
- Dan Frankel · state representative from the 23rd district (1999–present)
- Danilo Burgos · state representative from the 197th district (2019–present)
- Darrell L. Clarke · president of the Philadelphia City Council (2012–present), member of the Philadelphia City Council from the 5th district (1999–present)
- Dave Delloso · state representative from the 162nd district (2019–present)
- Dwight Evans · U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district (2019–present) and 2nd district (2016–2019)
- Ed Gainey · Mayor of Pittsburgh (2022–2026)
- Eddie Day Pashinski · state representative from the 121st district (2007–present)
- Elizabeth Fiedler · state representative for the 184th legislative district (2019–present)
- Emily Kinkead · state representative from the 20th district (2020–present)
- Gerald Mullery · state representative from the 119th district (2011–present)
- Jessica Benham · state representative from the 36th district (2021–present)
- Joe Torsella · former Pennsylvania state treasurer (2017–2021)
- Kathy Dahlkemper · Erie County executive (2014–2022) and former U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district (2009–2011)
- Lehigh County · Lehigh County controller (2019–present) ( running for State Senate )
- Madeleine Dean · U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (2019–present)
- Malcolm Kenyatta · state representative from the 181st district (2019–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate
- Matt Cartwright · U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district (2019–present) and 17th district (2013–2019)
- Michael B. Carroll · state representative from the 118th district (2007–2022)
- Mike Zabel · state representative from the 163rd district (2019–present)
- Paige Gebhardt Cognetti · Mayor of Scranton (2020–present)
- Pat Harkins · state representative from the 1st district (2007–present)
- Patty Kim · state representative from the 103rd district (2013–present)
- Robert Merski · state representative from the 2nd district (2019–present)
- Susan Wild · U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district (2019–present) and 15th district (2018–2019)
- Wilkes-Barre · mayor of Wilkes-Barre (2020–present)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- Marcel Groen · former chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party (2015–2018)
- AFL–CIO
- Allegheny County Labor Council
- Amalgamated Transit Union
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- Democratic Governors Association
- Eastern Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters
- Greater Pennsylvania Regional Council of Carpenters
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters
- International Union of Operating Engineers
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Laborers' International Union of North America
- Pennsylvania Democratic Party
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Sheet Metal Workers' International Association
Other15
Other · 15
- Black Lives Matter · ctivist for Black Lives Matter and mother of Antwon Rose
- Democratic Jewish Outreach PA
- Giffords
- International Brotherhood of Boilermakers · Local #154
- LGBTQ Victory Fund
- Larry Krasner · District Attorney of Philadelphia (2018–present)
- Marc Zumoff · former play-by-play announcer for the Philadelphia 76ers
- Mark Kelly Tyler · pastor of Mother Bethel A.M.E. Church
- MeidasTouch
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- Penn State College Democrats
- Rich Fitzgerald · Allegheny County executive (2012–present)
- SEIU
- Steve Irwin · banking commissioner of Pennsylvania (2006–2014) ( ran unsuccessfully for Congress )
- UFCW · Local #1776 Keystone State
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Philadelphia Tribune
RDoug Mastriano44 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials32
Federal 15State 16Local 1
Elected officials · 32
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Kim Ward · state senator from the 39th district (2009–present), Majority Leader of the Pennsylvania Senate (2020–present)
- Newt Gingrich · former U.S. representative from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999), former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999)
- Jim Cawley · former lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (2011–2015)
- Mark Schweiker · former governor of Pennsylvania (2001–2003)
- Dan Laughlin · state senator from the 49th district (2017–present)
- Doug Mastriano · state senator from the 33rd district (2019–present)
- Jake Corman · President pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate (2020–2022), state senator from SD-34 (1999–2022)
- Lisa Baker · state senator from SD-20 (2007–present)
- Pat Toomey · U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (2011–2023)
- Rick Santorum · U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and candidate for president in 2012 and 2016
- Jenna Ellis · legal advisor to former President Donald Trump
- Kellyanne Conway · former senior counselor to the president (2017–2020)
- Ronny Jackson · U.S. representative from Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present) and former Physician to the President (2013–2018)
- Steve Bannon · former White House Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor to the President (2017)
- Aaron Kaufer · state representative from 120th district (2015–present)
- Carrie DelRosso · state representative for HD-33 (2021–2022), Member of Oakmont Borough Council (2018–2021)
- Dan Meuser · U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district (2019–present)
- Doyle Heffley · state representative from the 122nd district (2011–present)
- Fred Keller · U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2019–2023)
- G.T. Thompson · U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district (2019–present) and 5th district (2009–2019)
- HD-72 · Carnicella, candidate for state representative for HD-72 in 2018 and 2020 and for state senator in SD-35 in 2016
- Jeff Coleman · state representative for HD-60 (2001–2004), founder of Churchill Strategies
- Karen Boback · state representative from 117th district (2007–present)
- Keith Rothfus · former U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2013–2019)
- Kurt Masser · state representative from the 107th district (2011–present)
- Melissa Hart · U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (2001–2007)
- Rick Saccone · state representative for HD-39 (2011–2019), nominee for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district in 2018
- Robert Smith Walker · former U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district (1977–1997)
- Rudy Giuliani · former mayor of New York City (1994–2001)
- Russ Diamond · state representative for HD-102 (2015–present)
- Tom Marino · U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2019) and 10th district (2011–2019)
Other8
Other · 8
- Gab · alt-tech social media service
- Jersey Shore Area School District · the Jersey Shore Area School District (2019–present)
- Michael Flynn · former National Security Advisor (2017)
- Mike Ditka · former head coach of the Chicago Bears (1982–1992)
- Mike Lindell · founder and CEO of MyPillow
- New Castle, Pennsylvania · Castle, Pennsylvania (2019–present)
- Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district · 's 8th congressional district in 2020
- The Philadelphia Inquirer
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Robert Gleason · former chair of the Pennsylvania Republican Party (2006–2017)
- Pennsylvania Republican Party
- executive director · r, executive director of Back to School PA PAC
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Bill Stepien · former White House Director of Political Affairs (2017–2018)
REPDouglas V. Mastriano0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- 538 · Oct 27
Likely D3
Likely D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Sep 28
- Elections Daily · Nov 6
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 27
Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Oct 6
The Cook Political Report
Likely DElections Daily
Likely D538
Safe DInside Elections
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified51 / 54deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements115 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks