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Pollster · 22 of 1769

Echelon Insights

GRADE DWEIGHT TIER T1NEUTRAL LEAN★ AAPOR TI MEMBER</> Embed
Polls scored
28
Mean error
6.7 pt
Signed bias
D+3.40
Aggregation weight
2.70

Pollster vs prediction market

From 69 race-polls · 24 matched markets
Pre-poll P(D) (avg)
52.3%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
+0.9 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+4.5 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Echelon Insights's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components
82
of 100 · tier · elite

Top-tier across most measured dimensions. Elite signal among the 28 polls scored.

Aggregator weight100
Verification rate90
Sample size median55
Citation rate91
Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured
Rater alignment71
Pollster vs editorial consensus
noisy

Across 59 graded races, Echelon Insights's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +3.3pp. Noisy — high variance vs the consensus, hard to characterize.

Mean delta
+3.3pp
Median delta
+4.0pp
Std-dev
11.5pp
N graded
59
Recent activity
Total all time
69
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
27
Last 180d
29

Last poll 5/20/2026 (47d ago)· status active

Per-cycle debrief appearances
CycleRankPollsMAESigned bias
2022#4 / 3641.49 ptR+1.23 pp
Recent polls