Pollster · 22 of 1053

Echelon Insights

GRADE A− NEUTRAL LEAN ★ AAPOR TI MEMBER
↗ Wikipedia ↗ AAPOR profile
Polls scored
50
Mean error
1.2 pt
Signed bias
R+0.96
Aggregation weight
1.00

Pollster vs prediction market

From 50 race-polls · 14 matched markets
Pre-poll P(D) (avg)
59.9%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
+0.1 pt
Average move within 24h of release
Market alignment
+4.2 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Echelon Insights's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components
74
of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight 50
Verification rate 98
Sample size median 54
Citation rate 100
Outlier rate (inv.) 100
Rater alignment 78
Pollster vs editorial consensus
noisy

Across 45 graded races, Echelon Insights's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +2.4pp. Noisy — high variance vs the consensus, hard to characterize.

Mean delta
+2.4pp
Median delta
+3.0pp
Std-dev
11.8pp
N graded
45
Sample races (links to detail):
us-governor-2026-flus-governor-2026-flus-governor-2026-ga
Recent activity
Total all time
50
Last 30d
15
Last 90d
16
Last 180d
16

Last poll 4/9/2026 (30d ago) · status active

Per-cycle debrief appearances
Cycle Rank Polls MAE Signed bias
2022 #2 / 36 3 1.06 pt R+0.72 pp
Recent polls