Pollster · 22 of 1769
Echelon Insights
Polls scored
28
Mean error
6.7 pt
Signed bias
D+3.40
Aggregation weight
2.70
Pollster vs prediction market
From 69 race-polls · 24 matched marketsPre-poll P(D) (avg)
52.3%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
+0.9 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+4.5 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Echelon Insights's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components82
of 100 · tier · elite
Top-tier across most measured dimensions. Elite signal among the 28 polls scored.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
noisyAcross 59 graded races, Echelon Insights's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +3.3pp. Noisy — high variance vs the consensus, hard to characterize.
Mean delta
+3.3pp
Median delta
+4.0pp
Std-dev
11.5pp
N graded
59
Recent activity
Total all time
69
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
27
Last 180d
29
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #4 / 36 | 4 | 1.49 pt | R+1.23 pp |
Recent polls
- 5/20/2026California · Governor · 2026Xavier Becerra 15.0 · Chad Bianco 12.0 · Steve Hilton 25.0 · Matt Mahan 7.0 · Katie Porter 7.0 · Tom Steyer 18.0 · Antonio Villaraigosa 1.0
- 4/20/2026Ohio · Senate (special) · 2026Jon Husted 51.0 · Sherrod Brown 45.0
- 4/20/2026Florida · Governor · 2026Jolly 43.0 · Donalds 49.0
- 4/20/2026Florida · Governor · 2026Demings 44.0 · Donalds 48.0
- 4/20/2026Florida · Senate (special) · 2026Vindman 43.0 · Moody 50.0
- 4/20/2026Georgia · Governor · 2026Bottoms 49.0 · Jones 43.0
- 4/20/2026Georgia · Governor · 2026Bottoms 49.0 · Jackson 43.0
- 4/20/2026Georgia · Senate · 2026Ossoff 51.0 · Collins 44.0
- 4/20/2026Iowa · Senate · 2026Turek 46.0 · Hinson 45.0
- 4/20/2026Maine · Senate · 2026Platner 51.0 · Collins 45.0