Pollster · 670 of 1769

New York Times Upshot/Siena College

GRADE AWEIGHT TIER T3D-LEAN</> Embed

↗ official site ↗ methodology

Polls scored

Mean error

2.8 pt

Signed bias

D+2.14

Aggregation weight

1.01

Composite quality score

0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components

—

limited data · tier · low-volume

Too few polls (4) for a confident composite score. The per-component bars below are shown for transparency, but with this little volume a high bar can come from a single poll — treat them as provisional, not a headline grade.

Aggregator weight51

Verification rate0

Sample size median81

Citation rate100

Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured

Rater alignment93

Pollster vs editorial consensus

aligned

Across 6 graded races, New York Times Upshot/Siena College's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.0pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta

+1.0pp

Median delta

+1.0pp

Std-dev

3.4pp

N graded

Sample races (links to detail):

us-governor-2016-nc us-governor-2016-nc us-senate-2016-fl

Recent activity

Total all time

Last 30d

Last 90d

Last 180d

Last poll 11/5/2016 (3530d ago)· status dormant

Per-cycle debrief appearances

Cycle	Rank	Polls	MAE	Signed bias
2016	#8 / 19	6	3.95 pt	D+3.51 pp

Recent polls