Pollster · 739 of 1053
New York Times Upshot/Siena College
GRADE A− D-LEAN
Polls scored
9
Mean error
4.0 pt
Signed bias
D+3.51
Aggregation weight
1.01
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components 61
of 100 · tier · low-volume
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned Across 6 graded races, New York Times Upshot/Siena College's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.0pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+1.0pp
Median delta
+1.0pp
Std-dev
3.4pp
N graded
6
Recent activity
Total all time
9
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #8 / 19 | 6 | 3.95 pt | D+3.51 pp |
Recent polls
- 11/6/2016 us-governor-2016-nc Pat McCrory 46.0 · Roy Cooper 47.0
- 11/6/2016 us-senate-2016-nc Richard Burr 46.0 · Deborah Ross 45.0
- 10/27/2016 us-senate-2016-fl Marco Rubio 51.0 · Patrick Murphy 42.0
- 10/25/2016 us-senate-2016-pa Pat Toomey 44.0 · Katie McGinty 47.0
- 10/23/2016 us-governor-2016-nc Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 51.0
- 10/23/2016 us-senate-2016-nc Richard Burr 46.0 · Deborah Ross 47.0
- 9/19/2016 us-governor-2016-nc Pat McCrory 42.0 · Roy Cooper 50.0
- 9/19/2016 us-senate-2016-nc Richard Burr 42.0 · Deborah Ross 46.0
- 9/14/2016 us-senate-2016-fl Marco Rubio 48.0 · Patrick Murphy 42.0