Pollster · 55 of 1769
Mitchell Research
Polls scored
8
Mean error
5.8 pt
Signed bias
R+3.77
Aggregation weight
1.09
Pollster vs prediction market
From 102 race-polls · 27 matched marketsPre-poll P(D) (avg)
73.5%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
+0.1 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+5.8 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Mitchell Research's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components65
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
decoupledAcross 49 graded races, Mitchell Research's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +0.6pp. Decoupled from editorial consensus — directionally different from Cook/Sabato/IE on multiple races.
Mean delta
+0.6pp
Median delta
-1.0pp
Std-dev
6.6pp
N graded
49
Recent activity
Total all time
102
Last 30d
11
Last 90d
30
Last 180d
30
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | #8 / 20 | 3 | 4.99 pt | D+4.99 pp |
| 2018 | #4 / 25 | 6 | 2.68 pt | R+1.03 pp |
| 2014 | #3 / 21 | 4 | 2.53 pt | D+2.06 pp |
Recent polls
- 6/16/2026Michigan · Governor · 2026Benson 51.0 · James 40.0
- 6/16/2026Michigan · Governor · 2026Benson 48.0 · Cox 41.0
- 6/16/2026Michigan · Governor · 2026Benson 50.0 · Johnson 42.0
- 6/16/2026Michigan · Senate · 2026Stevens 41.0 · Rogers 45.0
- 6/16/2026Michigan · Senate · 2026El-Sayed 47.0 · Rogers 42.0
- 6/15/2026Michigan · Senate · 2026El-Sayed 42.0 · Stevens 33.0 · McMorrow 6.0
- 6/14/2026Michigan · Governor · 2026James 28.0 · Cox 27.0 · Johnson 23.0 · Nesbitt 4.0
- 6/12/2026Michigan · Governor · 2026Mike Cox 27.0 · John James 28.0 · Perry Johnson 23.0 · Aric Nesbitt 4.0
- 6/12/2026Michigan · Governor · 2026Jocelyn Benson 48.0 · Mike Cox 41.0
- 6/12/2026Michigan · Governor · 2026Jocelyn Benson 51.0 · John James 40.0