Pollster · 354 of 1053
Clarity Campaign Labs
GRADE A− D-LEAN
Polls scored
22
Mean error
3.9 pt
Signed bias
D+3.85
Aggregation weight
1.04
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components 70
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
decoupled Across 16 graded races, Clarity Campaign Labs's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +5.2pp. Decoupled from editorial consensus — directionally different from Cook/Sabato/IE on multiple races.
Mean delta
+5.2pp
Median delta
+4.5pp
Std-dev
5.1pp
N graded
16
Recent activity
Total all time
22
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #7 / 19 | 3 | 3.86 pt | D+3.86 pp |
| 2014 | #10 / 21 | 4 | 4.06 pt | D+4.06 pp |
Recent polls
- 10/31/2022 us-senate-2022-wi Ron Johnson 46.0 · Mandela Barnes 48.0
- 10/11/2022 us-senate-2022-wi Ron Johnson 47.0 · Mandela Barnes 48.0
- 9/27/2022 us-governor-2022-fl Ron DeSantis 47.0 · Charlie Crist 46.0
- 8/30/2022 us-governor-2022-fl Ron DeSantis 48.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0
- 8/30/2022 us-senate-2022-fl Marco Rubio 46.0 · Val Demings 45.0
- 7/31/2022 us-governor-2022-fl Ron DeSantis 47.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0
- 7/31/2022 us-governor-2022-fl Ron DeSantis 49.0 · Nikki Fried 43.0
- 7/31/2022 us-governor-2022-fl Ron DeSantis 48.0
- 7/31/2022 us-senate-2022-fl Marco Rubio 45.0 · Val Demings 45.0
- 9/15/2021 us-governor-2022-ks Laura Kelly 47.0 · Derek Schmidt 44.0