| 11/7/2022 | Civiqs | 0.99 | L(D+2.5) | 739 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.5pt🟡1280d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.5pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt. - 🟡
1280d old Poll was fielded 1280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron Johnson 50.0 · Mandela Barnes 49.0 | pollarch |
| 11/6/2022 | Research Co. | 1.01 | —(D+1.5) | 450 | — | LV | 🟡1281d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron Johnson 51.0 · Mandela Barnes 45.0 | pollarch |
| 11/5/2022 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 1504 | — | LV | 🟡1282d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+4- 🟡
1282d old Poll was fielded 1282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,504 Sample size of 1,504 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Ron Johnson 53.0 · Mandela Barnes 47.0 | pollarch |
| 11/4/2022 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1095 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+3.4pt🟡1283d old+2- 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1283d old Poll was fielded 1283 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron Johnson 50.0 · Mandela Barnes 47.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2022 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 802 | — | RV | 🟡1286d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 48.0 · Mandela Barnes 45.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2022 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 1.04 | L(D+3.9) | 888 | — | LV | 🟡1287d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron Johnson 46.0 · Mandela Barnes 48.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2022 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 655 | — | LV | 🟡1287d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Ron Johnson 47.0 · Mandela Barnes 45.0 | pollarch |
| 10/30/2022 | Fox News | 1.00 | —(D+2.6) | 1000 | — | RV | 🟡bias D+2.6pt🟡1288d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. - 🟡
1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 48.0 · Mandela Barnes 45.0 | pollarch |
| 10/30/2022 | Wick Insights | 0.74 | R(R+4.0) | 1089 | — | LV | 🟡1288d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron Johnson 50.0 · Mandela Barnes 46.0 | pollarch |
| 10/29/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | — | LV | 🟡1289d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1289d old Poll was fielded 1289 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Ron Johnson 50.0 · Mandela Barnes 46.0 | pollarch |
| 10/23/2022 | Patriot Polling | 1.37 | R(R+1.4) | 801 | — | RV | 🟡1295d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1295d old Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias R+1.4pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.
| Ron Johnson 52.0 · Mandela Barnes 43.0 | pollarch |
| 10/22/2022 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 1376 | — | LV | 🟡1296d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1296d old Poll was fielded 1296 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Ron Johnson 51.0 · Mandela Barnes 46.0 | pollarch |
| 10/17/2022 | CNN/SSRS | 1.00 | —(D+4.4) | 905 | — | RV | 🟠historical bias D+4.4pt🟡1301d old+2- 🟠
historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1301d old Poll was fielded 1301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 45.0 · Mandela Barnes 48.0 | pollarch |
| 10/11/2022 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 1.04 | L(D+3.9) | 874 | — | LV | 🟡1307d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron Johnson 47.0 · Mandela Barnes 48.0 | pollarch |
| 10/9/2022 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 801 | — | RV | 🟡1309d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1309d old Poll was fielded 1309 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 47.0 · Mandela Barnes 47.0 | pollarch |
| 10/7/2022 | YouGov/CBS News | 1.00 | — | 1138 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1311d old+4- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1311d old Poll was fielded 1311 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
TV-network-sponsored: CBS News Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron Johnson 50.0 · Mandela Barnes 49.0 | pollarch |
| 9/27/2022 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 574 | — | unknown | 🟡1321d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1321d old Poll was fielded 1321 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Ron Johnson 47.0 · Mandela Barnes 47.0 | pollarch |
| 9/26/2022 | Fox News | 1.00 | —(D+2.6) | 1012 | — | RV | 🟡bias D+2.6pt🟡1322d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. - 🟡
1322d old Poll was fielded 1322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 48.0 · Mandela Barnes 44.0 | pollarch |
| 9/25/2022 | Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research | 1.00 | L | 1399 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1323d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1323d old Poll was fielded 1323 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Ron Johnson 51.0 · Mandela Barnes 46.0 | pollarch |
| 9/23/2022 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 999 | — | LV | 🟡1325d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1325d old Poll was fielded 1325 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Ron Johnson 50.0 · Mandela Barnes 48.0 | pollarch |
| 9/19/2022 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1087 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+3.4pt🟡1329d old+2- 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1329d old Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron Johnson 49.0 · Mandela Barnes 47.0 | pollarch |
| 9/18/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 860 | — | LV | 🟡1330d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1330d old Poll was fielded 1330 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Ron Johnson 48.0 · Mandela Barnes 44.0 | pollarch |
| 9/18/2022 | Big Data Poll | 0.69 | R(R+5.8) | 852 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1330d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1330d old Poll was fielded 1330 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron Johnson 49.0 · Mandela Barnes 46.0 | pollarch |
| 9/15/2022 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 651 | — | LV | 🟡1333d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1333d old Poll was fielded 1333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Ron Johnson 47.0 · Mandela Barnes 48.0 | pollarch |
| 9/13/2022 | OnMessage, Inc. * | 3.36 | neutral(R+0.2) | 800 | — | LV | 🟡1335d old🟡R+4.1pt vs editors+4- 🟡
1335d old Poll was fielded 1335 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.1pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
weight 3.36 Aggregation weight is 3.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
| Ron Johnson 49.0 · Mandela Barnes 45.0 | pollarch |
| 9/13/2022 | Civiqs | 0.99 | L(D+2.5) | 780 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.5pt🟡1335d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.5pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt. - 🟡
1335d old Poll was fielded 1335 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron Johnson 49.0 · Mandela Barnes 48.0 | pollarch |
| 9/11/2022 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 801 | — | RV | 🟡1337d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1337d old Poll was fielded 1337 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 48.0 · Mandela Barnes 47.0 | pollarch |
| 8/25/2022 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1091 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+3.4pt🟡1354d old+2- 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1354d old Poll was fielded 1354 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron Johnson 47.0 · Mandela Barnes 49.0 | pollarch |
| 8/16/2022 | Fox News | 1.00 | —(D+2.6) | 1006 | — | RV | 🟡bias D+2.6pt🟡1363d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. - 🟡
1363d old Poll was fielded 1363 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 46.0 · Mandela Barnes 50.0 | pollarch |
| 8/15/2022 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 811 | — | RV | 🟡1364d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1364d old Poll was fielded 1364 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 44.0 · Mandela Barnes 51.0 | pollarch |
| 6/20/2022 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 803 | — | RV | 🟡1420d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1420d old Poll was fielded 1420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 44.0 · Mandela Barnes 46.0 | pollarch |
| 6/20/2022 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 803 | — | RV | 🟡1420d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1420d old Poll was fielded 1420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 43.0 · Sarah Godlewski 45.0 | pollarch |
| 6/20/2022 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 803 | — | RV | 🟡1420d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1420d old Poll was fielded 1420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 45.0 · Alex Lasry 42.0 | pollarch |
| 6/20/2022 | Marquette University | 1.00 | —(R+1.3) | 803 | — | RV | 🟡1420d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1420d old Poll was fielded 1420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Ron Johnson 43.0 · Tom Nelson 44.0 | pollarch |
| 9/11/2021 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 1.04 | L(D+3.9) | 756 | — | LV | 🟡1702d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1702d old Poll was fielded 1702 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron Johnson 43.0 · Mandela Barnes 43.0 | pollarch |
| 9/11/2021 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 1.04 | L(D+3.9) | 756 | — | LV | 🟡1702d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1702d old Poll was fielded 1702 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron Johnson 44.0 · Sarah Godlewski 41.0 | pollarch |
| 9/11/2021 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 1.04 | L(D+3.9) | 756 | — | LV | 🟡1702d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
1702d old Poll was fielded 1702 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ron Johnson 45.0 · Alex Lasry 41.0 | pollarch |
| 3/27/2021 | Change Research | 0.61 | L(D+3.7) | 1723 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡1870d old+4- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1870d old Poll was fielded 1870 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,723 Sample size of 1,723 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Ron Johnson 44.0 · Tom Nelson 48.0 | pollarch |