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Races · Senate · 2022 · Wisconsin
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
Senate · class III · open seat

Mandela Barnes vs Ron Johnson

← Washington Senate
Lean RR +3.2 forecast· 65 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
30% Barnes (D)
70% Johnson (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +3.2 · 80% CI R+15.2 → D+8.8
Actual result R+1.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 70% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+3.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+15.2 (10th pctile) to D+8.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 70% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +3.2
80% CI: R +15.2 → D +8.8 · win prob 30%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used65
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+1.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

4044485256JOHNSON 49.8BARNES 46.4GODLEWSKI 45.6LASRY 42.6NELSON 44.6JUN '22AUG '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 65 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 6, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs739 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean49 · 50
Nov 5, 22Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned45 · 51
Nov 5, 22Civiqs739 · unknownD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean49 · 50
Nov 4, 22Data for Progress+21,504 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 53
Nov 4, 22Research Co.450 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned47 · 53
Nov 3, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,095 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean47 · 50
Nov 3, 22Data for Progress+11,504 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 53
Nov 2, 22Trafalgar Group1,095 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean47 · 50
Oct 31, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University802 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled45 · 48
Oct 30, 22Clarity Campaign Labs888 · LVD-LEAND +3.98 tracked+5.2decoupled48 · 46
Oct 30, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College655 · LVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned45 · 47
Oct 29, 22Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,000 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean45 · 48
Oct 29, 22Wick InsightsFor · Wick Insights1,089 · LVR-LEANR +4.59 tracked-0.6aligned46 · 50
Oct 28, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 50
Oct 28, 22Clarity Campaign Labs888 · unknownD-LEAND +3.98 tracked+5.2decoupled48 · 46
Oct 28, 22Siena College655 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned45 · 47
Oct 27, 22Wick1,089 · unknownNEUTRAL——46 · 50
Oct 27, 22Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research1,000 · unknownNEUTRAL——45 · 48
Oct 27, 22Emerson College1,000 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 51
Oct 27, 22Marquette University Law School679 · unknownNEUTRAL——48 · 50
Oct 22, 22Patriot PollingFor · Patriot Polling801 · RVR-LEANR +1.410 tracked-3.2r lean43 · 52
Oct 21, 22Data for Progress+11,376 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 51
Oct 21, 22Patriot Polling801 · unknownR-LEANR +1.410 tracked-3.2r lean43 · 52
Oct 17, 22Data for Progress1,376 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 51
Oct 16, 22CNN/SSRS905 · RVD-LEAND +4.417 tracked+3.0d lean48 · 45
Oct 14, 22SSRS714 · unknownNEUTRAL——49 · 50
Oct 12, 22Garin Hart Yang Research Group *502 · unknownNEUTRAL——46 · 48
Oct 10, 22Clarity Campaign Labs874 · LVD-LEAND +3.98 tracked+5.2decoupled48 · 47
Oct 8, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University801 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled47 · 47
Oct 8, 22Clarity Campaign Labs874 · unknownD-LEAND +3.98 tracked+5.2decoupled48 · 47
Oct 6, 22YouGov/CBS News+2For · CBS News1,138 · RVNEUTRAL—+1.6aligned49 · 50
Oct 5, 22Marquette University Law School652 · unknownNEUTRAL——46 · 52
Oct 4, 22YouGov1,137 · unknownD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean49 · 50
Sep 26, 22Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling574 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy47 · 47
Sep 25, 22Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,012 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean44 · 48
Sep 25, 22Public Policy Polling574 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy47 · 47
Sep 24, 22Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+11,399 · LVD-LEAN—+0.8aligned46 · 51
Sep 23, 22Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research1,012 · unknownNEUTRAL——44 · 48
Sep 22, 22Data for Progress+1999 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 50
Sep 21, 22Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research500 · unknownNEUTRAL——46 · 51
Sep 21, 22Data for Progress999 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 50
Sep 18, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,087 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean47 · 49
Sep 17, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling860 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned44 · 48
Sep 17, 22Big Data PollFor · CDM852 · LVNEUTRALR +6.84 tracked-2.3r lean46 · 49
Sep 16, 22Emerson College860 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned44 · 48
Sep 16, 22Trafalgar Group1,087 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean47 · 49
Sep 14, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College651 · LVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned48 · 47
Sep 13, 22Siena College651 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned48 · 47
Sep 12, 22OnMessage Inc.+2For · Politico800 · LVNEUTRALR +0.25 tracked-4.1r lean45 · 49
Sep 12, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs780 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean48 · 49
Sep 11, 22Civiqs780 · unknownD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean48 · 49
Sep 11, 22OnMessage Inc.800 · unknownNEUTRALR +0.25 tracked-4.1r lean45 · 49
Sep 10, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University801 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled47 · 48
Sep 7, 22Marquette University Law School632 · unknownNEUTRAL——48 · 49
Aug 24, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,091 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean49 · 47
Aug 15, 22Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,006 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean50 · 46
Aug 14, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University811 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled51 · 44
Jun 19, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University803 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled46 · 44
Jun 19, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University803 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled45 · 43
Jun 19, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University803 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled42 · 45
Jun 19, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University803 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled44 · 43
Sep 10, 21Clarity Campaign Labs756 · LVD-LEAND +3.98 tracked+5.2decoupled43 · 43
Sep 10, 21Clarity Campaign Labs756 · LVD-LEAND +3.98 tracked+5.2decoupled41 · 44
Sep 10, 21Clarity Campaign Labs756 · LVD-LEAND +3.98 tracked+5.2decoupled41 · 45
Mar 26, 21Change Research+21,723 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy48 · 44
· 65 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 9 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
Johnson · 100%9
RRon Johnson9 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Organizations5
Other3
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
DMandela Barnes0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSarah Godlewski0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAlex Lasry0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTom Nelson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-31
Ron JohnsonS0WI00197 ↗
Receipts
$34.9M
Disburse
$34.7M
Cash on hand
$762.1K
Debts
$10.8M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$480.2K
ENTREPRENEUR$210.5K
ARCHER AUTO GROUP$29.0K
SE$26.1K
ASHLEY FURNITURE$17.5K
Mandela BarnesS2WI00441 ↗
Receipts
$42.3M
Disburse
$41.8M
Cash on hand
$565.7K
Debts
$227.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Alex LasryS2WI00342 ↗
Receipts
$18.8M
Disburse
$18.7M
Cash on hand
$136.9K
Debts
$14.2M
Top industries
Securities & investment$76.3K
Top contributors
GOLDMAN SACHS$46.2K
AVENUE CAPITAL GROUP$29.7K
PAUL WEISS RIFKIND WHARTON & GARRISON$28.9K
MILWAUKEE BUCKS$28.2K
BLACKSTONE$18.3K
Tom NelsonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$-909.47
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
JEFFREY R. KRINSK APLC$7.0K
NORA ABRAMSON CONSULTING LLC$5.8K
PARTNER AT KLEINER PERKINS CAUFIELD &$5.8K
NIRVANA TECHNOLOGY$5.8K
HMFP$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.0M
D side
$1.5M · 73%
R side
$535.1K · 27%
Top spender
WFP NATIONAL PAC
For / against split
For Barnes $858.3K
Against Johnson $603.6K
Against Barnes $3.6K
For Johnson $531.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WFP NATIONAL PACD$309.0K15%for Mandela Barnes
NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUNDR$250.0K13%for Ron Johnson
COLOROFCHANGE PACD$249.4K12%for Mandela Barnes
SMPD$246.7K12%against Ron Johnson
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$241.2K12%for Ron Johnson
ONE FOR ALL COMMITTEED$222.2K11%against Ron Johnson
VOCES DE LA FRONTERA ACTIOND$112.5K6%for Mandela Barnes
POWERPACPLUSD$103.7K5%against Ron Johnson
SAVE OUR SENATE PACD$100.0K5%for Alex Lasry
PEOPLE'S ACTION POWERD$76.3K4%for Mandela Barnes

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt R1
Lean R2
Likely R3
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Nov 3
DDHQ
Likely R
Aug 16
The Economist
Likely R
Oct 31
538
Likely R
Oct 19
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Mar 31
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Feb 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified38 / 65deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-31
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks