Races · Senate · 2022 · Florida Senate · class III · open seat
Val Demings vs Marco Rubio Likely R R +9.0 forecast · 68 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probability poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
7% Demings (D)
93% Rubio (R)
Win probability
Val Demings 7% (D)
Marco Rubio 93% (R)
Model poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15 R+5 TIED D+5 D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimate R +9.0
80% CI R+21.0 → D+3.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +9.0 · 80% CI R+21.0 → D+3.0
Actual result R+16.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Momentum
Now —
Window 55 points
How fast the polling margin is shifting, in points per week, and toward which party. The sparkline traces the margin over time.
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Tipping-point P
Now 0.0%
Probability this seat is the pivotal one — the race that decides which party controls the chamber.
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
Market · D-side
Now —
Volume-weighted Democratic win price across prediction-market platforms (in cents = implied %). The sparkline traces it over time.
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
News articles · 30d
Now —
Number of articles about this race indexed in the last 30 days, with the weekly trend.
Where this race stands
Tilt R · model 93% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R .
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+21.0 (10th pctile) to D+3.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 93% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
Marco Rubio
Marco Antonio Rubio is an American politician, attorney, and diplomat serving as the 72nd United States secretary of state since 2025. He is…
93%win Val Demings
Valdez Venita Demings (née Butler ; born March 12, 1957) is an American politician and former police officer who served as U.S. representati…
7%win Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +9.0
80% CI: R +21.0 → D +3.0 · win prob 7%
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used 68 Days to election passed Actual result R+16.4 Residual σ 6.00pt Generated 7/1/2026
All polls · 68 results Date Pollster · trust signals n · pop Lean Bias · track vs raters D · R Nov 5, 22 Research Co. +1 450 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.4 50 tracked -0.7 aligned 42 · 52 Nov 5, 22 Data for Progress +1 1,436 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 43 · 55 Nov 4, 22 Research Co. 450 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.4 50 tracked -0.7 aligned 44 · 54 Nov 3, 22 Data for Progress 1,436 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 43 · 55 Nov 1, 22 Amber Integrated +1 600 · LV D-LEAN D +7.8 7 tracked +8.8 d lean 40 · 49 Nov 1, 22 Civiqs 772 · LV D-LEAN D +2.5 22 tracked +4.0 d lean 45 · 52 Oct 31, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 45 · 51 Oct 31, 22 Siena College +1 659 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 15 tracked +1.2 aligned 43 · 51 Oct 31, 22 Victory Insights 500 · LV D-LEAN D +4.0 5 tracked +1.0 noisy 46 · 50 Oct 31, 22 Amber Integrated 600 · unknown D-LEAN D +7.8 7 tracked +8.8 d lean 40 · 49 Oct 30, 22 Florida State University/YouGov +1 1,117 · RV NEUTRAL — — 44 · 51 Oct 30, 22 Civiqs 772 · unknown D-LEAN D +2.5 22 tracked +4.0 d lean 45 · 52 Oct 30, 22 Victory Insights 500 · unknown D-LEAN D +4.0 5 tracked +1.0 noisy 46 · 50 Oct 30, 22 Siena College 659 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.7 15 tracked +1.2 aligned 43 · 51 Oct 25, 22 YouGov 1,117 · unknown D-LEAN D +3.4 23 tracked +2.2 d lean 44 · 51 Oct 23, 22 University of North Florida 622 · LV D-LEAN D +4.8 7 tracked +9.5 d lean 43 · 54 Oct 22, 22 Data for Progress +1 1,251 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 44 · 51 Oct 20, 22 University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab 622 · unknown NEUTRAL — — 43 · 54 Oct 20, 22 Data for Progress 1,251 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 44 · 51 Oct 17, 22 Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research 644 · unknown NEUTRAL — — 45 · 52 Oct 15, 22 Florida Atlantic University 719 · LV NEUTRAL D +2.4 3 tracked +3.9 d lean 42 · 48 Oct 13, 22 Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative 719 · unknown NEUTRAL — — 42 · 48 Oct 12, 22 RMG Research 685 · LV D-LEAN D +6.6 8 tracked +2.6 d lean 45 · 50 Oct 11, 22 RMG Research 685 · unknown D-LEAN D +6.6 8 tracked +2.6 d lean 45 · 50 Oct 7, 22 African American Research Collaborative 1,250 · unknown NEUTRAL — — 40 · 42 Sep 27, 22 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 800 · LV NEUTRAL — — 41 · 47 Sep 26, 22 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 800 · unknown NEUTRAL — — 41 · 47 Sep 24, 22 Siena College +1 669 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 15 tracked +1.2 aligned 41 · 48 Sep 23, 22 Clarity Campaign Labs 2,860 · unknown D-LEAN D +3.9 8 tracked +5.2 decoupled 46 · 46 Sep 21, 22 Siena College 669 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.7 15 tracked +1.2 aligned 41 · 48 Sep 19, 22 Civiqs 617 · LV D-LEAN D +2.5 22 tracked +4.0 d lean 47 · 49 Sep 18, 22 Civiqs 617 · unknown D-LEAN D +2.5 22 tracked +4.0 d lean 47 · 49 Sep 17, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 41 · 45 Sep 16, 22 Suffolk University 500 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 41 · 45 Sep 9, 22 Sachs Media 600 · LV NEUTRAL — — 46 · 49 Sep 9, 22 Kurt Jetta +1 999 · RV NEUTRAL — +10.4 d lean 40 · 48 Sep 8, 22 Center Street PAC 608 · unknown D-LEAN — — 45 · 50 Sep 6, 22 Echelon Insights +1 815 · RV NEUTRAL R +1.3 6 tracked +3.3 noisy 41 · 50 Sep 5, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 44 · 46 Sep 3, 22 Susquehanna Polling and Research +1 500 · LV R-LEAN R +1.5 3 tracked +2.4 d lean 44 · 47 Aug 30, 22 Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research +1 500 · LV D-LEAN — +0.8 aligned 47 · 49 Aug 29, 22 Clarity Campaign Labs +1 3,017 · LV D-LEAN D +3.9 8 tracked +5.2 decoupled 45 · 46 Aug 17, 22 Impact Research +1 800 · LV D-LEAN — +10.7 d lean 46 · 49 Aug 13, 22 Kurt Jetta +1 996 · RV NEUTRAL — +10.4 d lean 39 · 46 Aug 11, 22 University of North Florida +1 1,624 · RV D-LEAN D +4.8 7 tracked +9.5 d lean 48 · 44 Aug 4, 22 Change Research +1 1,031 · LV D-LEAN D +3.7 18 tracked +5.7 noisy 46 · 46 Jul 30, 22 Clarity Campaign Labs +1 2,244 · LV D-LEAN D +3.9 8 tracked +5.2 decoupled 45 · 45 Jul 8, 22 Kurt Jetta +1 906 · A NEUTRAL — +10.4 d lean 38 · 46 May 26, 22 Public Policy Polling 655 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 41 · 47 May 8, 22 Phillips Academy 543 · RV NEUTRAL R +1.2 4 tracked +1.7 aligned 36 · 34 Mar 18, 22 Moore Information Group +2 600 · LV R-LEAN R +10.0 4 tracked -6.5 r lean 32 · 47 Mar 11, 22 Saint Leo University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +8.5 3 tracked — 27 · 45 Mar 3, 22 Kurt Jetta +1 1,098 · A NEUTRAL — +10.4 d lean 26 · 45 Feb 19, 22 University of North Florida 685 · RV D-LEAN D +4.8 7 tracked +9.5 d lean 34 · 46 Feb 9, 22 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy +1 625 · RV NEUTRAL — — 42 · 49 Jan 28, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 41 · 49 Nov 18, 21 St. Pete Polls +2 2,896 · LV D-LEAN D +2.2 12 tracked 0.0 aligned 44 · 51 Nov 8, 21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 867 · RV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 33 · 45 Oct 22, 21 Saint Leo University +1 500 · A NEUTRAL D +8.5 3 tracked — 29 · 47 Sep 26, 21 VCreek/AMG 405 · LV R-LEAN — — 38 · 42 Aug 23, 21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 · RV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 34 · 46 Aug 17, 21 Political Matrix/Listener Group 1,000 · LV R-LEAN — — 45 · 55 Aug 16, 21 St. Pete Polls +2 2,068 · RV D-LEAN D +2.2 12 tracked 0.0 aligned 46 · 48 Aug 16, 21 Change Research +2 1,585 · LV D-LEAN D +3.7 18 tracked +5.7 noisy 44 · 47 Aug 9, 21 Susquehanna Polling & Research 700 · RV NEUTRAL R +0.0 7 tracked +2.3 d lean 39 · 50 Jun 26, 21 Political Matrix/Listener Group 681 · LV R-LEAN — — 40 · 60 Feb 27, 21 Mason-Dixon +2 625 · RV NEUTRAL R +0.1 28 tracked -2.9 noisy 46 Sep 21, 20 Data for Progress +1 620 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 42
Endorsements · 6 total Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet Rubio · 100% 6
Endorsements tracked
Val Demings 0 · 0%
Marco Rubio 6 · 100%
Total 6
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
R Marco Rubio 6 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Organizations 3
Organizations · 3
Florida Police Benevolent Association Republican Jewish Coalition Tea Party Express Other 2
Other · 2
Fraternal Order of Police · f Police Pro-Israel America Elected officials 1
Federal 1 State 0 Local 0
Elected officials · 1
Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) D Val Demings 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-29 Top industries
Health professionals $33.0K
Health professionals · $33.0K
Leon Medical Centers · $33.0K Top contributors
ENTREPRENEUR $224.0K
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS $162.4K
LEON MEDICAL CENTERS $33.0K
KRATOS $25.8K
THE VILLAGES $24.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports Top spender
NATIONAL VICTORY AC…
For / against split
For Demings $3.4M
Against Rubio $3.3M
Against Demings $546.8K
For Rubio $3.7M
Spender Side Amount Share Target NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
Spent · $1.5M Direction · for Marco Rubio Share of IE · 14% R $1.5M 14% for Marco Rubio WOMEN VOTE! super pac · boosts D
Spent · $1.3M Direction · against Marco Rubio Share of IE · 12% D $1.3M 12% against Marco Rubio AMERICAN ENERGY ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
Spent · $1.3M Direction · for Marco Rubio Share of IE · 11% R $1.3M 11% for Marco Rubio BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC super pac · boosts D
Spent · $1.2M Direction · for Val Demings Share of IE · 11% D $1.2M 11% for Val Demings VOTAR ES PODER PAC super pac · boosts D
Spent · $931.9K Direction · against Marco Rubio Share of IE · 9% D $931.9K 9% against Marco Rubio FLORIDA FREEDOM PAC super pac · boosts D
Spent · $870.5K Direction · for Val Demings Share of IE · 8% D $870.5K 8% for Val Demings WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC super pac · boosts R
Spent · $539.9K Direction · against Val Demings Share of IE · 5% R $539.9K 5% against Val Demings GRASSROOTS ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
Spent · $500.0K Direction · for Marco Rubio Share of IE · 5% R $500.0K 5% for Marco Rubio FOR OUR FUTURE super pac · boosts D
Spent · $466.9K Direction · for Val Demings Share of IE · 4% D $466.9K 4% for Val Demings
Editorial ratings · 6 raters Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al. Likely R 5 Likely R · 5 raters
The Cook Political Report · Oct 17 DDHQ · Jul 19 The Economist · Sep 6 Inside Elections · Aug 24 Sabato's Crystal Ball · Aug 23 The Cook Political Report
Likely R Oct 17
The Economist
Likely R Sep 6
Inside Elections
Likely R Aug 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R Aug 23
Demographic crosstabs age · education · race · gender No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026 Likely R model May 11, 2026 · change
Moved to Likely R
Model margin R +9.3
Verification trail
Polls verified 49 / 68deterministic
Polls flagged —none
Markets ingested 0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings syncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-29
Endorsements 6 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage < 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks