A Fox News poll released June 3 shows Democrat Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted 53%-45% in the Ohio Senate race[1][3]. Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted three Iowa race ratings after Tuesday's primary set Josh Turek (D) against Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) for U.S. Senate[5][6], and new Marquette and Harvard CAPS/Harris polling shows President Trump's approval below 50% on each issue tested, with economy approval at 30% and inflation at 22% in the Marquette survey[9][11].
Ohio Senate. Fox News, polling 1,015 Ohio registered voters May 28-June 1 (n=1,015, ±3pp), found Brown at 53% to Husted's 45% in a hypothetical matchup[1][2]. Brown consolidates 98% of Democrats while Husted holds 86% of Republicans; 13% of Republicans cross over to Brown versus 2% of Democrats backing Husted[1]. Inflation leads issue salience at 43%, followed by health care (12%) and immigration and border security (11%)[3]. The same poll measured President Trump's Ohio favorability at 42% favorable to 57% unfavorable[1]. The Cook Political Report classifies Ohio's Senate race as a toss-up alongside Maine and Michigan[1]. For comparison, a Bowling Green State University/YouGov survey conducted April 7-14 (n=1,000, ±3.88pp) had Husted ahead 50%-47%[1], and a NetChoice/Echelon Insights poll April 3-9 (n=413, ±5.8pp) showed Husted 51%-45%[1].
Iowa: post-primary rating changes. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Iowa's open gubernatorial race from Leans Republican to Toss-up, and bumped both the Iowa Senate race and the IA-02 House contest from Likely Republican to Leans Republican[5]. State Rep. Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist, won the Democratic Senate primary and will face Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson[6][7][8]. Preprimary polling has shown Hinson and Turek in a statistical tie[7].
Trump approval, economic issues. The Marquette Law School national survey of 1,001 adults conducted May 20-26 (n=1,001, ±3.4pp) put President Trump's overall job approval at 38% to 62% disapprove (net -24), down from net -21 in April[11]. The same survey recorded 30% approval on the economy (-40 net), 22% approval on inflation (-56 net), and 19% approval on gasoline prices (-62 net)[11]. The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll of 1,725 registered voters May 29-31 (n=1,725, ±2.4pp) showed Trump's strongest issues as immigration at 49% approval (net -2) and crime at 48% (net -4), with economy at 39% (-22), inflation at 35% (-30), and tariffs and trade at 37% (-26)[9]. The Economist/YouGov poll, May 29-June 1 (n=1,604, ±3.5pp), measured 24% approval on inflation to 72% disapproval[10].
- Ohio Senate (Fox News, May 28-June 1, n=1,015, ±3pp): Brown 53%, Husted 45%[1][3].
- Iowa Senate Crystal Ball rating: Likely Republican → Leans Republican[5].
- Iowa Governor Crystal Ball rating: Leans Republican → Toss-up[5].
- Vermont Governor Crystal Ball rating: Likely Republican → Safe Republican[5].
- Trump overall approval, Marquette (May 20-26, n=1,001, ±3.4pp): 38% approve / 62% disapprove[11].
References
- [1]Sherrod Brown's Chances of Beating Jon Husted in Ohio: Fox News Poll · Newsweek
- [2]Sherrod Brown Leading In Ohio Senate Race, Trump Approval Dips: Fox News Poll · HuffPost
- [3]Fox News Poll: Democratic unity, Republican crossovers shape Ohio Senate race · Fox News
- [4]Amy Acton's Chances of Beating Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio: Poll · Newsweek
- [5]Rating Changes in Iowa Following Tuesday's Primary · Sabato's Crystal Ball
- [6]Josh Turek wins Democratic primary in battleground Iowa Senate race · NBC News
- [7]Paralympic gold medalist Josh Turek wins Iowa Senate primary with establishment support · Politico
- [8]In Iowa Senate race, Hinson-Turek matchup set for November · Roll Call
- [9]Donald Trump's Approval Rating Underwater on All Issues Across Two Polls · Newsweek
- [10]Donald Trump's approval rating on economy plummets across three polls · Newsweek
- [11]New Marquette Law School national survey finds Trump with declining approval · Marquette University
- [12]Could Democrats win the Senate? Their chances seem to be improving - CNN