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Daily report · Sunday, May 31, 2026

California's wide-open governor primary tops a busy pre-election Tuesday.

California voters head to the polls Tuesday in a 61-candidate open-seat gubernatorial primary, while new surveys show Senator Susan Collins trailing in Maine and President Trump's national approval rating at new lows, with several traditionally Republican-leaning states showing the steepest declines since January.[1][2][3]

California governor primary. California holds its top-two open-seat gubernatorial primary on June 2 to choose a successor to Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, with 61 candidates on the ballot.[1] A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times survey released ahead of the vote showed Democrat Xavier Becerra leading with 25%, Republican Steve Hilton at 21%, and Democrat Tom Steyer at 19% among likely voters; Republican Chad Bianco and Democrat Katie Porter trailed.[4] The Associated Press reported that two mid-to-late May polls each placed Becerra and Hilton near 20% support, with Steyer, Bianco, and Porter clustered behind them and no other candidate in double digits.[1] The first- and second-place finishers, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.[4]

California gubernatorial candidates at a debate ahead of the June 2 primary
California gubernatorial candidates at a debate ahead of the June 2 primary · Photo: The Washington Post
D+18.3
Forecast margin · CA-01 House special

Maine Senate. Republican Senator Susan Collins continues to trail Democrat Graham Platner in public polling ahead of Maine's June 9 primary.[5] A Pine Tree State Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center conducted May 21–25 placed Platner at 51% and Collins at 42%, with 6% undecided (n=1,397, ±2.6pp).[6] A Pan Atlantic Research survey of likely voters May 8–18 showed Platner at 48% and Collins at 41% (n=827, ±3.7pp), and a Maine People's Resource Center poll fielded March 20–31 showed Platner at 48% and Collins at 39% (n=1,167, ±2.9pp).[5][6] Independents split 47% Collins to 44% Platner in the UNH poll.[7] A Collins spokesperson told Newsweek the polls were "wrong" in her 2020 race, when Collins won by roughly nine points despite trailing the RealClearPolitics average by 6.5 points at the close.[5]

Polling average and individual polls in ME Senate
Prediction-market D-yes price history · ME Senate

Iowa Senate primary. Iowa Democrats vote Tuesday in the U.S. Senate primary to face the Republican nominee for the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Joni Ernst, choosing between state Representative Josh Turek and state Senator Zach Wahls.[8] VoteVets, a national Democratic super PAC, has spent nearly $10 million boosting Turek, a Paralympian who in 2022 won a state House race by six votes; Wahls has criticized the outside spending and called for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to step down.[9] An Echelon Insights survey fielded through April 9 found state Representative Ashley Hinson at 45% and Turek at 46%, and a separate trial heat showed Hinson at 44% and Wahls at 46% (n=377, ±6.6pp).[10] A GQR poll fielded through March 16 showed Hinson leading both Democrats: 47%–43% over Turek and 47%–44% over Wahls (n=1,200, ±2.8pp).[10]

Polling average and individual polls in IA Senate

Alaska Senate. Fox News reported that a Democratic strategist named Dan Sullivan filed to run in Alaska's U.S. Senate race against Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who is being challenged by Democrat and former Representative Mary Peltola.[11] Alaska's general election uses a top-four primary with ranked-choice voting in November.[11] Recent state-level polling shows Peltola at 49% to Sullivan's 43% in an Alaska Survey Research poll fielded through April 19 (n=1,946, ±2.5pp) and 49% to 44% in the same firm's March poll (n=1,590, ±2.7pp).[12]

Polling average and individual polls in AK Senate

Trump approval. A Newsweek analysis of Civiqs rolling tracking data, based on more than 107,000 responses collected between January 20, 2025 and May 26, 2026, found President Trump's net approval has declined in every state since the start of his second term, with the steepest drops concentrated in Republican-leaning and battleground states.[2] Wyoming fell 25 points (from +47 to +22), Kentucky 23 points (+23 to 0), Nebraska 22 points (+18 to −4), and Alaska, Florida, and Oklahoma each fell 21 points; Idaho, Tennessee, Montana, Kansas, and West Virginia all dropped 18–19 points.[2]

National polling shows similar weakness. An Economist/YouGov survey conducted May 22–26 placed Trump's approval at 34% and disapproval at 59%, a net of −25 (n=1,520, ±3.6pp).[13] An Emerson College poll fielded May 24–25 also recorded a decline from April's 40% (n=1,000, ±3pp).[13] The Los Angeles Times reported that a New York Times survey put approval at 38%, and that a Politico survey found 18% of Trump supporters said they were financially worse off than before he resumed office.[3]

Map of U.S. states colored by Trump's net approval rating change since January 2025
Map of U.S. states colored by Trump's net approval rating change since January 2025 · Photo: Newsweek
  • California: 61-candidate top-two governor primary on June 2; Becerra 25%, Hilton 21%, Steyer 19% in IGS/LAT survey.[4]
  • Iowa: Democratic Senate primary June 2 between Turek and Wahls; April Echelon polling shows tight general-election trial heats with Hinson.[8][10]
  • Maine: Senate primary June 9; Platner leads Collins by 9 points in the latest UNH poll (n=1,397, ±2.6pp).[6]
  • Georgia: GOP Senate runoff polling from JMC Analytics shows Representative Mike Collins at 50% to former coach Derek Dooley's 36% with 15% undecided (n=600, ±4pp).[14]

References

  1. [1]Here are the top candidates for California governor in Tuesday's primary · AP News
  2. [2]Map Shows States Where Donald Trump's Approval Rating Has Crashed the Most · Newsweek
  3. [3]Trump enters perilous polling territory, raising questions over base support · Los Angeles Times
  4. [4]Pleas and political attacks fill the home stretch of California governor's race · Los Angeles Times
  5. [5]Susan Collins Polls Numbers Worse Than in 2020; Can She Defy Odds Again? · Newsweek
  6. [6]Graham Platner's Wife Warned Campaign of Explicit Texts to Women—Report · Newsweek
  7. [7]Despite inflammatory comments, Platner holds 9-point lead over Collins in new poll · Fox News
  8. [8]Iowa Democrats hoping to flip a US Senate seat are torn over which of 2 hopefuls has the best shot · AP News
  9. [9]A Paralympian and 'prairie populist': How this Iowa Senate candidate is trying to spark a rural revival for Democrats · CNN
  10. [10]NetChoice April 2026 National Antitrust Survey Topline · Echelon Insights / NetChoice
  11. [11]Dan Sullivan vs. Dan Sullivan: GOP blasts clone candidate as lookalike enters Alaska Senate race · Fox News
  12. [12]March Senate Political Tracking Survey · Alaska Survey Research
  13. [13]Donald Trump's Approval Rating Hits New Low Across Five Polls · Newsweek
  14. [14]Derek Dooley's Chances of Beating Mike Collins in Georgia Runoff: Poll · Newsweek
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