Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Katy Padilla Stout vs Brandon Herrera
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 86% R
Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+2.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.7 (10th pctile) to D+2.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 86% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.7
80% CI: R +29.7 → D +2.5 · win prob 14%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +17.6
80% CI R +20.0 → R +14.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +2.9
80% CI R +7.7 → D +1.8
CV MAE 3.69
consensusMarket-implied
R +5.7
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 27¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 13 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 27% · polls 40%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?” | 27¢ | 73¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
3 polls · through Mar 11, 2026 · latest Public Policy Polling
Rep
VoteHub47.0%
VoteHub
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Dem
VoteHub45.0%
VoteHub
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Brandon Herrera
VoteHub42.0%
VoteHub
Polling average42.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg42.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average42.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt below our average
Katy Padilla Stout
VoteHub40.0%
VoteHub
Polling average40.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg39.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average39.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 3 polls (through Mar 11, 2026): Rep 47.0%, Dem 45.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 521 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 40 · 42 |
Endorsements · 29 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet5
24
Endorsements tracked
Katy Padilla Stout5 · 17%
Brandon Herrera24 · 83%
Total29
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RBrandon Herrera24 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 10State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 14
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA–01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN–08 (2015–present)
- Lisa McClain · Chair of the House Republican Conference (2025-present) from MI−09 (2021-present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
- Chip Roy · TX-21 (2019–present)
- Eli Crane · AZ-02 (2023–present)
- Lauren Boebert · CO-04 (2021–present)
- Mary Miller · IL-15 (2021–present)
- Pat Harrigan · NC-10 (2025–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2023–present)
- Marjorie Taylor Greene · former GA-14 (2021–2026)
- Wesley Virdell · state representative from the 53rd district (2025–present)
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- Freedom Caucus Fund
- Gun Owners of America
- National Association for Gun Rights
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- Republican Liberty Caucus
- Republicans for National Renewal
- Rocky Mountain Gun Owners
- Turning Point USA
- Young Republicans · of Texas
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Kyle Rittenhouse · the Kenosha unrest shooter
DKaty Padilla Stout5 endorsers
Most notable · Charlie Gonzalez · former TX-20 (1999–2013)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AFL-CIO · FL-CIO
- CHC BOLD PAC
- EMILYs List
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Charlie Gonzalez · former TX-20 (1999–2013)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- San Antonio Express-News
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-11Brandon HerreraH4TX23120 ↗
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$305.5K
Debts
$570.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Katy Padilla Stout
Receipts
$238.4K
Disburse
$92.4K
Cash on hand
$145.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$41.2K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$41.2K · 100%
Top spender
FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $39.7K | 96% | for Brandon Herrera |
| Gun Rights America super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.0K | 2% | for Brandon Herrera |
| MAKE LIBERTY WIN super pac · boosts R
| R | $447.37 | 1% | for Brandon Herrera |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely R3
Likely R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.31
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.43 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.31
Week-over-weekshift −0.43 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 38%
Neutral 54%
R 8%
46% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets38%
Neutral54%
R-leaning outlets8%
46% of outlets classified by editorial lean
W
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
F
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
N
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
P
Talarico and Paxton tied in latest Texas Senate poll
M
Tuesday’s Campaign Round-Up, 6.30.26: Poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied in Texas
W
Texas Senate race is dead even, poll finds
M
Texas House Elections Committee Hearing - April 24, 2025 Poll Results (AUmej4oE60)
N
Texas 33rd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Texas Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
T
Texas Senate race 2026: latest polls for the record-breaking election
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-11
Endorsements35 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks