Public domain
DemocratRunning for TX-23 U.S. House · 2026
Katy Padilla Stout
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the thirty-eight U.S. representatives from the State of Texas, one from each of the state's thirty-eight congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on March 3, 2026, and in races where no candidate receives over 50% in a primary, runoff elections took place on May 26.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04
Democrat Katy Padilla Stout won her primary and is running for the U.S. House seat in Texas's 23rd district. She is polling at approximately 40 percent, trailing opponent Brandon Herrera at roughly 42 percent. Polymarket-based data implies about a 30 percent win probability for her candidacy. Stout has raised approximately $200,000.
39.5%
Polling average
our aggregate
26%
Win probability
market-implied
$238k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Stout's money comes from.
A−
84/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — small-dollar reliance is the standout.
1 watch item · in-state funding
Small-dollar reliance100
56% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence92
2% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding46
54% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$238k
Raised
$92k
Spent
$146k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
56% small (<$200)42% large indiv.2% PAC
46% in-state · 54% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Race
The contest Stout is running in.
TX · HOUSE · 2026lean r
Stout (D) vs Brandon Herrera (R)
39.5%−2.9 Herrera42.5%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Stout and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: COAT_OF_ARMS_OF_THE_REPUBLIC_OF_TEXAS.SVG: SODACAN DERIVATIVE WORK: FRY1989 (TALK) · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
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foxnews.com · 2026-06-30
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
noticias.foxnews.com · 2026-06-30
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
politico.com · 2026-06-30
Talarico and Paxton tied in latest Texas Senate poll
Democrat · TX-23 U.S. House
Katy Padilla Stout
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the thirty-eight U.S. representatives from the State of Texas, one from each of the state's thirty-eight congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on March 3, 2026, and in races where no candidate receives over 50% in a primary, runoff elections took place on May 26.
Where Stout standsRace →
Stout 39.5%Brandon Herrera 42.5%
Market · wins
26¢
39.5%
Poll avg
26%
Win prob
$238k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04Democrat Katy Padilla Stout won her primary and is running for the U.S. House seat in Texas's 23rd district. She is polling at approximately 40 percent, trailing opponent Brandon Herrera at roughly 42 percent. Polymarket-based data implies about a 30 percent win probability for her candidacy. Stout has raised approximately $200,000.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Stout's money comes from.
A−
84/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — small-dollar reliance is the standout.
1 watch item · in-state funding
Small-dollar reliance100
56% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence92
2% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding46
54% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$238k
Raised
$92k
Spent
$146k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
56% small (<$200)42% large indiv.2% PAC
46% in-state · 54% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: COAT_OF_ARMS_OF_THE_REPUBLIC_OF_TEXAS.SVG: SODACAN DERIVATIVE WORK: FRY1989 (TALK) · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)