CC BY 2.0
RepublicanRunning for TX-23 U.S. House · 2026
Brandon Herrera
Brandon Joseph Herrera, also known as The AK Guy, is an American YouTuber, firearms manufacturer, and political candidate. He gained prominence through his YouTube channel, launched in 2014, which features firearms testing, historical weapon demonstrations, and commentary on gun policy and politics. Herrera is a member of the Republican Party.
Born 1995 · Fort Bragg , North Carolina , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04
Republican Brandon Herrera, a YouTuber and firearms manufacturer known as The AK Guy, won the Republican primary and is running for U.S. House in Texas's 23rd district. In polling, he leads opponent Katy Padilla Stout, with about 42% to around 40%. Markets estimate his win probability at approximately 70%. He has raised roughly $1.5 million.
42.5%
Polling average
our aggregate
72%
Win probability
market-implied
$1.5M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Herrera's money comes from.
C
41/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance42
21% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
46% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding26
74% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure97
$41k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$1.5M
Raised
$1.2M
Spent
$305k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
21% small (<$200)33% large indiv.46% PAC
26% in-state · 74% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Herrera is running in.
TX · HOUSE · 2026lean r
Herrera (R) vs Katy Padilla Stout (D)
42.5%+2.9 Herrera39.5%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Herrera and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: GAGE SKIDMORE FROM SURPRISE, AZ, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA · CC BY 2.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
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Republican · TX-23 U.S. House
Brandon Herrera
Brandon Joseph Herrera, also known as The AK Guy, is an American YouTuber, firearms manufacturer, and political candidate. He gained prominence through his YouTube channel, launched in 2014, which features firearms testing, historical weapon demonstrations, and commentary on gun policy and politics. Herrera is a member of the Republican Party.
Where Herrera standsRace →
Herrera 42.5%Katy Padilla Stout 39.5%
Market · wins
72¢
42.5%
Poll avg
72%
Win prob
$1.5M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04Republican Brandon Herrera, a YouTuber and firearms manufacturer known as The AK Guy, won the Republican primary and is running for U.S. House in Texas's 23rd district. In polling, he leads opponent Katy Padilla Stout, with about 42% to around 40%. Markets estimate his win probability at approximately 70%. He has raised roughly $1.5 million.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Herrera's money comes from.
C
41/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance42
21% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
46% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding26
74% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure97
$41k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$1.5M
Raised
$1.2M
Spent
$305k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
21% small (<$200)33% large indiv.46% PAC
26% in-state · 74% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: GAGE SKIDMORE FROM SURPRISE, AZ, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA · CC BY 2.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)