Republican primary · March 3, 2026
Texas house Republican primary
Brandon Herrera won the Republican primary on March 3, 2026, advancing to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
Primary result · Republican primary
Official outcome · March 3, 2026 · forecast shown for reference1Brandon HerreraBrandon Joseph Herrera, also known as The AK Guy, is an American YouTuber, firearms manufacturer, and political candidate. He gained promine…
2Tony Gonzales
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Herrera | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 26 | Political Intelligence | 543 · LV | 45 | — |
| Dec 21, 25 | Political Intelligence | 422 · LV | 43 | — |
| Oct 31, 25 | Trafalgar Group | 605 · LV | 35 | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 24 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetBrandon Herrera · 24
RBrandon Herrera24 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 10State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 14
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA–01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN–08 (2015–present)
- Lisa McClain · Chair of the House Republican Conference (2025-present) from MI−09 (2021-present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
- Chip Roy · TX-21 (2019–present)
- Eli Crane · AZ-02 (2023–present)
- Lauren Boebert · CO-04 (2021–present)
- Mary Miller · IL-15 (2021–present)
- Pat Harrigan · NC-10 (2025–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2023–present)
- Marjorie Taylor Greene · former GA-14 (2021–2026)
- Wesley Virdell · state representative from the 53rd district (2025–present)
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- Freedom Caucus Fund
- Gun Owners of America
- National Association for Gun Rights
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- Republican Liberty Caucus
- Republicans for National Renewal
- Rocky Mountain Gun Owners
- Turning Point USA
- Young Republicans · of Texas
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Kyle Rittenhouse · the Kenosha unrest shooter
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-03-11In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.31
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.43 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.31
Week-over-weekshift −0.43 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 38%
Neutral 54%
R 8%
46% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets38%
Neutral54%
R-leaning outlets8%
46% of outlets classified by editorial lean
W
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
F
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
N
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
P
Talarico and Paxton tied in latest Texas Senate poll
M
Tuesday’s Campaign Round-Up, 6.30.26: Poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied in Texas
W
Texas Senate race is dead even, poll finds
M
Texas House Elections Committee Hearing - April 24, 2025 Poll Results (AUmej4oE60)
N
Texas 33rd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Texas Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
T
Texas Senate race 2026: latest polls for the record-breaking election
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-11
Endorsements35 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks