Races · house · 2026 · Ohio
house · open seat
Marcy Kaptur vs Derek Merrin
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 10d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 54% R · market gap 20pp
Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+4.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+1.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+17.3 (10th pctile) to D+14.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 54% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.5% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 89/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 46%, market says 66% — 20pp gap (opposite winners). Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
89
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement34
6.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution34 / 100
Measured6.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +1.2
80% CI: R +17.3 → D +14.9 · win prob 46%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +1.8
80% CI R +4.3 → D +3.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +5.0
80% CI R +10.2 → D +0.1
CV MAE 4.03
consensusMarket-implied
D +4.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 67¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 25 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 67% · polls 42%.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19 | McLaughlin & Associates+2For · Internal R-aligned | 400 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.04 tracked | -6.3noisy | 43 · 47 |
Endorsements · 9 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet8
1
Endorsements tracked
Marcy Kaptur8 · 89%
Derek Merrin1 · 11%
Total9
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMarcy Kaptur8 endorsers
Most notable · Elect Democratic Women
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
RDerek Merrin1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-04Derek MerrinH4OH09169 ↗
Receipts
$814.8K
Disburse
$664.2K
Cash on hand
$227.3K
Debts
$50.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Marcy Kaptur
Receipts
$3.4M
Disburse
$741.3K
Cash on hand
$3.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$37.0K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$37.0K · 100%
Top spender
HONORING AMERICAN L…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HONORING AMERICAN LAW ENFORCEMENT PAC other · boosts R
| R | $25.0K | 68% | for Derek Merrin |
| LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR A SAFER AMERICA PAC other · boosts R
| R | $12.0K | 32% | for Derek Merrin |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Tilt R1
Tilt R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
Tilt RSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.33
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.17 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.33
Week-over-weekshift −0.17 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 42%
Neutral 50%
R 8%
50% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets42%
Neutral50%
R-leaning outlets8%
50% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-04
Endorsements16 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks