RepublicanRunning for OH-9 U.S. House · 2026
Derek Merrin
Derek Scott Merrin is an American politician who previously served as the state representative for the 42nd District of the Ohio House of Representatives. He was the Republican nominee for Ohio's 9th congressional district in 2024, where he was narrowly defeated by incumbent Marcy Kaptur. Merrin is the Republican nominee in Ohio's 9th district in the 2026 election, facing a rematch with Kaptur.
Born 1986 · Smithtown, New York , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
Derek Merrin, a former Ohio state representative and mayor of Waterville, is running for the U.S. House seat in Ohio's 9th district after winning the Republican primary. In polling, he leads with about 48% support against incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur at roughly 42%, though Polymarket implies about a 30% win probability. He has raised approximately $800,000.
47.5%
Polling average
our aggregate
32%
Win probability
market-implied
$815k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Merrin's money comes from.
B+
72/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — outside-money exposure is the standout.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance44
22% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence92
2% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding57
43% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure96
$37k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
2008Mayor of Waterville
2008–2011
2016Ohio state representative
since 2016
—Member of Waterville City Council
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$815k
Raised
$664k
Spent
$227k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
22% small (<$200)76% large indiv.2% PAC
57% in-state · 43% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-05-15 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Merrin is running in.
OH · HOUSE · 2026lean r
Merrin (R) vs Marcy Kaptur (D)
47.5%+5.0 Merrin42.5%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Merrin and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.
Related coverage
nytimes.com · 2026-07-02
Ohio Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
tippahnews.com · 2026-06-30
AARP Poll Shows Ramaswamy, Husted Trailing Democrats in Ohio
newsweek.com · 2026-06-25
Sherrod Brown Chances of Ousting GOP’s Jon Husted in Ohio Senate Race—Polls
nytimes.com · 2026-06-24
Who Is Ahead in the Ohio Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
Republican · OH-9 U.S. House
Derek Merrin
Derek Scott Merrin is an American politician who previously served as the state representative for the 42nd District of the Ohio House of Representatives. He was the Republican nominee for Ohio's 9th congressional district in 2024, where he was narrowly defeated by incumbent Marcy Kaptur. Merrin is the Republican nominee in Ohio's 9th district in the 2026 election, facing a rematch with Kaptur.
Where Merrin standsRace →
Merrin 47.5%Marcy Kaptur 42.5%
Market · wins
32¢
47.5%
Poll avg
32%
Win prob
$815k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03Derek Merrin, a former Ohio state representative and mayor of Waterville, is running for the U.S. House seat in Ohio's 9th district after winning the Republican primary. In polling, he leads with about 48% support against incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur at roughly 42%, though Polymarket implies about a 30% win probability. He has raised approximately $800,000.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
2008Mayor of Waterville
2008–2011
2016Ohio state representative
since 2016
—Member of Waterville City Council
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Merrin's money comes from.
B+
72/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — outside-money exposure is the standout.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance44
22% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence92
2% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding57
43% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure96
$37k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$815k
Raised
$664k
Spent
$227k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
22% small (<$200)76% large indiv.2% PAC
57% in-state · 43% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-05-15 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.