Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Don Davis vs Laurie Buckhout
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 6d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 57% R
Polling average rates this race Lean D (D+2.3, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+2.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+18.3 (10th pctile) to D+13.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 57% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 86/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
86
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement32
6.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution32 / 100
Measured6.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +2.2
80% CI: R +18.3 → D +13.9 · win prob 43%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +3.7
80% CI R +1.5 → D +9.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +4.3
80% CI D +1.7 → D +6.9
CV MAE 2.03
consensusMarket-implied
D +0.3
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 52¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 7 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 52% · polls 45%.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27 | GQR+1For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +12.8d lean | 45 · 41 |
| Apr 28 | co/efficient+1For · efficient (R) | 842 · LV | R-LEAN | R +5.413 tracked | -3.4r lean | 41 · 41 |
| Feb 1 | GQR+2For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +12.8d lean | 42 · 39 |
Endorsements · 42 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet35
7
Endorsements tracked
Don Davis35 · 83%
Laurie Buckhout7 · 17%
Total42
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDon Davis35 endorsers
Most notable · Cabarrus County · er chair of the Cabarrus County Republican Party and nominee for this district in 2024
Organizations26
Organizations · 26
- Cabarrus County · er chair of the Cabarrus County Republican Party and nominee for this district in 2024
- 314 Action
- AIPAC
- Bend the Arc
- Black Economic Alliance · PAC
- Blue Dog PAC
- Center for Freethought Equality
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Democratic Socialists of America · Winston-Salem
- End Citizens United
- Equality North Carolina
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Patriotic Millionaires
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Red Wine & Blue
- Sierra Club
- Track AIPAC
- United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America · Southern Regional Council of Carpenters
- VoteVets
- Wake County · safety specialist, former executive committee member for the Wake County Libertarian Party and perennial candidate
- WelcomePAC
- Working Families Party
- Young Democrats of North Carolina
Elected officials4
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Seth Moulton · MA-06 (2015–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- David Price · former NC-04 (1987-1995, 1997–2023)
- North Carolina's 19th Senate district · ee for North Carolina's 19th Senate district in 2024
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Daily Kos
- The News & Observer · (Democratic primary only)
Other2
Other · 2
- Anthony Aguilar · retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel and activist
- The Charlotte Observer
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Moe Davis · podcaster and former candidate for this district
RLaurie Buckhout7 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials5
Federal 5State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Jack Bergman · MI-01 (2017–present)
- John McGuire · VA-05 (2025–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- Ryan Zinke · MT-01 (2015–2017, 2023–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Maggie's List
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
LTom Bailey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-05Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137 ↗
Receipts
$2.7M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$1.5M
Debts
$3.5M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Don Davis
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$622.9K
Cash on hand
$2.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$962.1K
D side
$42.1K · 4%
R side
$920.0K · 96%
Top spender
AMERICAN MISSION
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN MISSION super pac · boosts R
| R | $509.1K | 53% | for Laurie Buckhout |
| THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $191.0K | 20% | for Laurie Buckhout |
| Eastern Carolina Conservatives Fund pac · boosts R
| R | $91.0K | 9% | for Laurie Buckhout |
| SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $65.0K | 7% | for Laurie Buckhout |
| WFW ACTION FUND INC pac · boosts R
| R | $63.9K | 7% | for Laurie Buckhout |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jul 3
Lean R3
Lean R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Lean RInside Elections
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
16 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
16 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles16
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.50
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.88 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.50
Week-over-weekshift −0.88 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 50%
Neutral 50%
50% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets50%
Neutral50%
R-leaning outlets0%
50% of outlets classified by editorial lean
Q
Press Release: Don Davis Cites North Carolina Budget Investment for Martin General Hospital Reopening Effort
U
North Carolina (2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series Brief #26)
N
Who Is Ahead in North Carolina's 10th Congressional District?
N
Who Is Ahead in North Carolina's 14th Congressional District?
N
North Carolina Fourth Congressional District Primary Election Results 2026
N
North Carolina 10th Congressional District Primary Election Results 2026
N
North Carolina First Congressional District Primary Election Results 2026
N
North Carolina Ninth Congressional District Primary Election Results 2026
N
North Carolina Primary Election Results
W
North Carolina bill would allow residents to challenge neighbors’ ballots after Election Day
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-05
Endorsements42 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage16 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks