Races · house · 2026 · Michigan
house · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs Mike Bouchard Jr.
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
3 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary August 4, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 10d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 57% R · market gap 20pp
Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+2.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+2.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+18.2 (10th pctile) to D+13.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 57% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 88/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 43%, market says 63% — 20pp gap (opposite winners). Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
88
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement31
6.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution31 / 100
Measured6.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +2.2
80% CI: R +18.3 → D +13.9 · win prob 43%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +7.8
80% CI R +15.0 → R +7.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.6
80% CI R +4.5 → D +1.3
CV MAE 2.23
consensusMarket-implied
D +3.1
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 64¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 22 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 64% · polls 42%.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 592 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 41 · 43 |
| Jan 16 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 592 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 42 · 44 |
| Jan 16 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 592 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 44 · 42 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRMike Bouchard Jr.0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-29Mike Bouchard Jr.H6MI10359 ↗
Receipts
$977.3K
Disburse
$129.9K
Cash on hand
$847.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Eric Chung
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$534.8K
Cash on hand
$930.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tim Greimel
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$418.9K
Cash on hand
$634.0K
Debts
$7.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Christina Hines
Receipts
$884.2K
Disburse
$572.4K
Cash on hand
$311.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$115.4K
D side
$8.6K · 7%
R side
$106.8K · 93%
Top spender
HONOR, DUTY & DISCI…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HONOR, DUTY & DISCIPLINE PAC other · boosts R
| R | $106.8K | 93% | for Mike Bouchard Jr. |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Tilt R1
Tilt R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
Cook Political Report
Lean RThe Economist
Likely DInside Elections
Tilt RSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
15 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
15 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles15
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.40
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.07 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.40
Week-over-weekshift −0.07 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 40%
Neutral 60%
40% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets40%
Neutral60%
R-leaning outlets0%
40% of outlets classified by editorial lean
S
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-29
Endorsements109 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage15 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks