Republican primary · August 4, 2026
Michigan house Republican primary
Field of 1 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 10d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
76
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (15.3pp).
Forecast CI width51
15.3pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution51 / 100
Measured15.3pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 4 polls + fundamentals1John James
2Mike Bouchard Jr.Michael J. Bouchard (born April 12, 1956) is an American law enforcement officer and politician who has served as the sheriff of Oakland Cou…
3Robert Lulgjuraj
4Justin Kirk
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Jr. | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4 | Harper Polling | 400 · LV | 39 | — |
| Mar 15 | Strategic National | 300 · LV | 29 | — |
| Mar 15 | Strategic National | 300 · LV | 18 | — |
| Jan 31 | OnMessage | 400 · RV | 37 | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetRMike Bouchard Jr.0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-29In the news
15 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
15 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles15
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.40
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.07 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.40
Week-over-weekshift −0.07 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 40%
Neutral 60%
40% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets40%
Neutral60%
R-leaning outlets0%
40% of outlets classified by editorial lean
S
Exclusive / Progressives see polling, candidate momentum in Michigan
T
AOC endorses progressive Democrat in closely watched Michigan race for US Senate seat | US midterm elections 2026
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Michigan Fourth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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2026 election guide: Michigan’s primary is 40 days away. See who's on the ballot
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After Trump’s endorsement of John James, what’s left of Michigan’s GOP governor race?
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Who Is Ahead in the Michigan Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
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Michigan U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Michigan Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Morning Digest: Trump endorses Michigan candidate he begged not to run for governor
D
Insider: Shaky polls cause uproar in Michigan Senate, governor races
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-29
Endorsements109 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage15 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks