Democratic primary · August 4, 2026
Michigan house Democratic primary
Field of 3 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 10d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
86
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.6pp).
Forecast CI width72
21.6pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution72 / 100
Measured21.6pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Christina HinesThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 13 U.S. representatives…
2Eric ChungThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 13 U.S. representatives…
3Tim GreimelTim Greimel is an American politician who served as the mayor of Pontiac, Michigan, from 2022 to 2026. He is a member of the Democratic Part…
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Hines | Greimel | Chung | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | Global Strategy Group | 400 · LV | 30 | 7 | 13 | +17 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 53 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetEric Chung · 27Christina Hines · 18Tim Greimel · 8
DEric Chung27 endorsers
Most notable · Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
Elected officials18
Federal 13State 3Local 1
Elected officials · 18
- Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
- Derek Tran · CA-45 (2025–present)
- Grace Meng · NY-06 (2013–present)
- Jill Tokuda · HI-02 (2023–present)
- Jimmie Wilson Jr. · HD-32 (2023–present)
- Joey Andrews · HD-38 (2023–present)
- Judy Chu · CA-28 (2009–present)
- Laurie Pohutsky · HD-17 (2019–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Mark Takano · CA-39 (2013–present)
- Mike Quigley · IL-05 (2009–present)
- Ritchie Torres · NY-15 (2021–present)
- Tim Kennedy · NY-26 (2024–present)
- Andy Kim · New Jersey (2025–present)
- Becca Balint · VT-AL (2023–present)
- Chris Coons · Delaware (2010–present)
- Mark Schauer · former MI-7 (2009–2011)
- Oakland County commissioner · unty commissioner from the 4th district (2023–present)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- AAAFund
- AAPI Victory Fund
- ASPIRE PAC
- Equality PAC
- Human Rights Campaign
- LGBTQ Victory Fund
- Oakland University · of Oakland University
Other2
Other · 2
- Carol Browner · former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (1993–2001)
- Ted Osius · former U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam (2014–2017)
DChristina Hines18 endorsers
Most notable · Denise Mentzer · HD-61 (2023–present)
Elected officials9
Federal 1State 6Local 2
Elected officials · 9
- Denise Mentzer · HD-61 (2023–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Mai Xiong · HD-13 (2024–present)
- Rosemary Bayer · SD-13 (2019–present)
- Veronica Klinefelt · SD-11 (2023–present)
- Veronica Paiz · HD-10 (2023–present)
- Henry Yanez · Sterling Heights city councilor (2019–present) and former HD-25 (2013–2019)
- Macomb County · former Macomb County prosecuting attorney and nominee for this district in 2002, 2022, and 2024
- Warren · Moore, Warren City Council secretary
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- EMILY's List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers · Local 25
- Patriotic Millionaires
- UNITE HERE · Local 24
- Vote Mama
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Detroit News
DTim Greimel8 endorsers
Most notable · American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees · Michigan 925
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees · Michigan 925
- Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers · Local 2
- Communications Workers of America · District 4
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 58
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades · Council 1M
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Michigan Education Association
- United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers · Local 149
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-29In the news
15 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
15 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles15
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.40
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.07 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.40
Week-over-weekshift −0.07 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 40%
Neutral 60%
40% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets40%
Neutral60%
R-leaning outlets0%
40% of outlets classified by editorial lean
S
Exclusive / Progressives see polling, candidate momentum in Michigan
T
AOC endorses progressive Democrat in closely watched Michigan race for US Senate seat | US midterm elections 2026
N
Michigan Fourth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
S
2026 election guide: Michigan’s primary is 40 days away. See who's on the ballot
M
After Trump’s endorsement of John James, what’s left of Michigan’s GOP governor race?
N
Who Is Ahead in the Michigan Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
N
Michigan U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Michigan Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
T
Morning Digest: Trump endorses Michigan candidate he begged not to run for governor
D
Insider: Shaky polls cause uproar in Michigan Senate, governor races
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-29
Endorsements109 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage15 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks