DemocratRunning for MI-10 U.S. House · 2026
Tim Greimel
Tim Greimel is an American politician who served as the mayor of Pontiac, Michigan, from 2022 to 2026. He is a member of the Democratic Party. Greimel was previously a member of the Michigan House of Representatives, to which he was first elected in a special election in 2012 following the resignation of Tim W. Melton. After Greimel's election to a full term in 2012, his colleagues elected him to serve as the House's minority leader.
Born 1973
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04
Tim Greimel, who served as mayor of Pontiac, Michigan, from 2022 to 2026, is running for the U.S. House in Michigan's 10th district. Previously elected to the Michigan House of Representatives in 2012, he served as the chamber's minority leader. In current polling, Greimel trails his opponent Christina Hines by about 2 points, with roughly 42% to her 44%. He has raised about $1.1 million and carries an approximate 60% market-implied win probability.
41.5%
Polling average
our aggregate
64%
Win probability
market-implied
$1.1M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Greimel's money comes from.
B
70/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance16
8% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence76
6% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding86
14% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—Member of the Michigan House of Representatives
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$1.1M
Raised
$419k
Spent
$634k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
8% small (<$200)86% large indiv.6% PAC
86% in-state · 14% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Race
The contest Greimel is running in.
MI · HOUSE · 2026lean r
Greimel (D) vs Christina Hines (D)
41.5%−2.0 Hines43.5%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Greimel and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.
Related coverage
semafor.com · 2026-07-06
Exclusive / Progressives see polling, candidate momentum in Michigan
theguardian.com · 2026-07-02
AOC endorses progressive Democrat in closely watched Michigan race for US Senate seat | US midterm elections 2026
nytimes.com · 2026-06-29
Michigan Fourth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
spectrumlocalnews.com · 2026-06-25
2026 election guide: Michigan’s primary is 40 days away. See who's on the ballot
Democrat · MI-10 U.S. House
Tim Greimel
Tim Greimel is an American politician who served as the mayor of Pontiac, Michigan, from 2022 to 2026. He is a member of the Democratic Party. Greimel was previously a member of the Michigan House of Representatives, to which he was first elected in a special election in 2012 following the resignation of Tim W. Melton. After Greimel's election to a full term in 2012, his colleagues elected him to serve as the House's minority leader.
Where Greimel standsRace →
Greimel 41.5%Christina Hines 43.5%
Market · wins
64¢
41.5%
Poll avg
64%
Win prob
$1.1M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04Tim Greimel, who served as mayor of Pontiac, Michigan, from 2022 to 2026, is running for the U.S. House in Michigan's 10th district. Previously elected to the Michigan House of Representatives in 2012, he served as the chamber's minority leader. In current polling, Greimel trails his opponent Christina Hines by about 2 points, with roughly 42% to her 44%. He has raised about $1.1 million and carries an approximate 60% market-implied win probability.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—Member of the Michigan House of Representatives
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Greimel's money comes from.
B
70/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance16
8% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence76
6% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding86
14% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$1.1M
Raised
$419k
Spent
$634k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
8% small (<$200)86% large indiv.6% PAC
86% in-state · 14% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.