CC BY 2.0
RepublicanRunning for MI-10 U.S. House · 2026
Mike Bouchard Jr.
Michael J. Bouchard (born April 12, 1956) is an American law enforcement officer and politician who has served as the sheriff of Oakland County, Michigan since 1999. A member of the Republican Party , Bouchard previously served in the Michigan State Senate from 1991 to 1999, and as the Senate Majority Leader from 1998 to 1999; he was also the unsuccessful Republican nominee for United States Senate in 2006 , losing to incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow . In 2010 he was a candidate for governor in the Republican primary, losing to Rick Snyder and two other candidates. As of 2024, Bouchard was the only Republican countywide elected official in Oakland County.
Born 1956 · Flint, Michigan , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04
Michael J. Bouchard, sheriff of Oakland County since 1999, is running for Michigan's 10th congressional district as a Republican. He previously served in the state senate from 1991 to 1999. In polling, Bouchard and Democrat Christina Hines are effectively tied at around 44% each. Market data suggests roughly a 30% win probability for Bouchard, and he has raised approximately $1 million.
43.5%
Polling average
our aggregate
34%
Win probability
market-implied
$977k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Bouchard's money comes from.
B
68/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance6
3% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence84
4% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding92
8% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure90
$107k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—Member of the State Senate of Michigan
—Member of the Michigan House of Representatives
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$977k
Raised
$130k
Spent
$847k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
3% small (<$200)93% large indiv.4% PAC
92% in-state · 8% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Bouchard is running in.
MI · HOUSE · 2026lean r
Bouchard (R) vs Christina Hines (D)
43.5%−0.1 Hines43.5%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Bouchard and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: MIKE BOUCHARD · CC BY 2.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
semafor.com · 2026-07-06
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theguardian.com · 2026-07-02
AOC endorses progressive Democrat in closely watched Michigan race for US Senate seat | US midterm elections 2026
nytimes.com · 2026-06-29
Michigan Fourth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
spectrumlocalnews.com · 2026-06-25
2026 election guide: Michigan’s primary is 40 days away. See who's on the ballot
Republican · MI-10 U.S. House
Mike Bouchard Jr.
Michael J. Bouchard (born April 12, 1956) is an American law enforcement officer and politician who has served as the sheriff of Oakland County, Michigan since 1999. A member of the Republican Party , Bouchard previously served in the Michigan State Senate from 1991 to 1999, and as the Senate Majority Leader from 1998 to 1999; he was also the unsuccessful Republican nominee for United States Senate in 2006 , losing to incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow . In 2010 he was a candidate for governor in the Republican primary, losing to Rick Snyder and two other candidates. As of 2024, Bouchard was the only Republican countywide elected official in Oakland County.
Where Bouchard standsRace →
Bouchard 43.5%Christina Hines 43.5%
Market · wins
34¢
43.5%
Poll avg
34%
Win prob
$977k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04Michael J. Bouchard, sheriff of Oakland County since 1999, is running for Michigan's 10th congressional district as a Republican. He previously served in the state senate from 1991 to 1999. In polling, Bouchard and Democrat Christina Hines are effectively tied at around 44% each. Market data suggests roughly a 30% win probability for Bouchard, and he has raised approximately $1 million.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—Member of the State Senate of Michigan
—Member of the Michigan House of Representatives
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Bouchard's money comes from.
B
68/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance6
3% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence84
4% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding92
8% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure90
$107k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$977k
Raised
$130k
Spent
$847k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
3% small (<$200)93% large indiv.4% PAC
92% in-state · 8% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: MIKE BOUCHARD · CC BY 2.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)