Races · house · 2026 · Iowa
house · open seat
Dave Dawson vs Chris McGowan
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+44.5 (10th pctile) to R+12.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.4
80% CI: R +44.5 → R +12.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +34.8
80% CI R +42.9 → R +30.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +0.3
80% CI R +2.8 → D +2.1
CV MAE 1.88
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the IA-04 House seat?” | 7¢ | 93¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 7 candidates with no endorsements yet10
Endorsements tracked
Dave Dawson0 · 0%
Chris McGowan10 · 100%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RChris McGowan10 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials8
Federal 6State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 8
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Matt Windschitl · former majority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2020–2025) from the 15th district (2007–present) and former candidate for this seat
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · Speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Terry Branstad · former U.S. ambassador to China (2017–2020) and former governor of Iowa (1983–1999, 2011–2017)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Rudy Yakym · IN-02 (2022–present)
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Ben Carson 2016 presidential campaign · for the Ben Carson 2016 presidential campaign, former CEO of Parler, and former candidate for this seat.
- Robert O'Neill · former Navy SEAL
DDave Dawson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DLindsay James0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DChristina Bohannan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMariannette Miller-Meeks0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJoe Mitchell0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSarah Trone Garriott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RZach Nunn0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-27Chris McGowanH6IA04167 ↗
Receipts
$636.6K
Disburse
$261.3K
Cash on hand
$375.3K
Debts
$17.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Dave Dawson
Receipts
$98.4K
Disburse
$61.9K
Cash on hand
$36.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$172.7K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$172.7K · 100%
Top spender
AMERICAN MISSION
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN MISSION other · boosts R
| R | $104.0K | 60% | for Chris McGowan |
| CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. other · boosts R
| R | $60.0K | 35% | for Chris McGowan |
| IOWA ALWAYS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $8.7K | 5% | for Chris McGowan |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-27
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks