Races · house · 2026 · IA

house · open seat

Lindsay James vs Zach Nunn

← IA house IA house →

Tilt R R +1.5 · 176 days to election · 4 polls · 0 markets Last poll 26d ago Rating 1d ago

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 76% R

tilt-r · uncertainty-high

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +9.9

80% CI: R +27.4 → D +7.7 · win prob 24%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	4
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models1 models

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +9.9

80% CI R +27.4 → D +7.7

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 4 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:4 of 4 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
4/14/2026	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	675	±3.2	RV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligneduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Mitchell 33.0 · Lindsay James 36.0	poll arch
3/14/2026	Ragnar Research Partners	1.00	R	400	±5.0	LV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 80 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Zach Nunn 48.0 · Sarah Trone Garriott 42.0	poll arch
9/18/2025	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	717	—	RV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned234d old+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 234d old Poll was fielded 234 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Zach Nunn 44.0 · Jennifer Konfrst 44.0	poll arch
6/19/2025	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	555	—	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned325d old+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 325d old Poll was fielded 325 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mariannette Miller-Meeks 39.0 · Christina Bohannan 43.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Sep 11	-1.5	-9.0	+7.5
Inside Elections	Likely R	Mar 7	-1.5	-9.0	+7.5
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	Apr 10	-1.5	-9.0	+7.5

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 4 weeks ago (4/14/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (2 changes)

5/6/2026 Tilt R R+1.5 via polls held 2d
5/4/2026 Lean R via pvi