Races · house · 2026 · Iowa
house · open seat
Lindsay James vs Joe Mitchell
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 72% R
Polling average rates this race Lean D (D+3.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+7.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+23.3 (10th pctile) to D+8.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 72% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement74
14.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution74 / 100
Measured14.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +7.2
80% CI: R +23.3 → D +8.9 · win prob 28%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +12.7
80% CI R +14.9 → R +10.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +2.1
80% CI R +2.2 → D +6.4
CV MAE 3.34
consensusMarket-implied
R +2.3
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 40¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 4 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 40% · polls 36%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?” | 40¢ | 56¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 675 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 36 · 33 |
Endorsements · 22 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet11
11
Endorsements tracked
Lindsay James11 · 50%
Joe Mitchell11 · 50%
Total22
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJoe Mitchell11 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials9
Federal 8State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Bobby Kaufmann · majority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 82nd district (2013–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
- Brandon Gill · TX-26 (2025–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
- Turning Point Action
DLindsay James11 endorsers
Most notable · Liz Mathis · state senator from the 34th district (2011–present)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- American Federation of Government Employees
- EMILYs List
- End Citizens United
- Teamsters · Iowa
- Vote Common Good
Elected officials4
Federal 3State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Liz Mathis · state senator from the 34th district (2011–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Abby Finkenauer · IA-01 (2019–2021)
- Dave Loebsack · IA-02 (2007–2021)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Kate Mulgrew · actress
Other1
Other · 1
- Kevin Techau · former U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Iowa (2014–2017)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-11Joe MitchellH6IA02237 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$683.2K
Cash on hand
$877.7K
Debts
$50.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Lindsay JamesH6IA02211 ↗
Receipts
$872.6K
Disburse
$633.4K
Cash on hand
$239.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$254.4K
D side
$242.7K · 95%
R side
$11.7K · 5%
Top spender
AB PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AB PAC other · boosts D
| D | $189.5K | 74% | against Joe Mitchell |
| Project 218 other · boosts D
| D | $53.2K | 21% | for Lindsay James |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $10.8K | 4% | for Joe Mitchell |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $890.87 | 0% | for Joe Mitchell |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R3
Lean R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Lean RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.33
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.10 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.33
Week-over-weekshift +0.10 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 33%
Neutral 67%
33% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets33%
Neutral67%
R-leaning outlets0%
33% of outlets classified by editorial lean
U
Democratic Senate Nominee Josh Turek Leading In Iowa Senate Race With Republican Weighed Down By Trump, New...
N
Iowa U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
T
Democrat Josh Turek leading by 4 points in Iowa Senate race polling
N
Iowa First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
R
Radio Iowa/Baseball Coaches Association High School Poll 6/29/26
N
Iowa Primary Election Results
K
2026 primary election results: Iowa voters decide nominees for State Senate, House
N
Iowa Second Congressional District Primary Election Results
A
Iowa Primary Results 2026: Senate, House and Governor
R
Radio Iowa/Baseball Coaches Association High School Poll 6-22-26
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged1needs review
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-11
Endorsements31 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks