Races · house · 2026 · Iowa
house · open seat
Christina Bohannan vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 6d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 56% R · market gap 27pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Likely D (D win prob 71%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+2.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+18.1 (10th pctile) to D+14.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 56% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 44%, market says 71% — 27pp gap (opposite winners). Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +2.0
80% CI: R +18.1 → D +14.1 · win prob 44%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +10.9
80% CI R +13.8 → R +9.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +3.1
80% CI R +1.8 → D +8.0
CV MAE 3.83
consensusMarket-implied
D +4.8
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 71¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 28 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 71% · polls 43%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Jun 19, 2025 · latest Public Policy Polling
Christina Bohannan
VoteHub43.0%
VoteHub
Polling average43.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg42.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average42.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt above our average
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
VoteHub39.0%
VoteHub
Polling average39.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg39.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average39.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jun 19, 2025): Christina Bohannan 43.0%, Mariannette Miller-Meeks 39.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 555 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 43 · 39 |
Endorsements · 33 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet23
10
Endorsements tracked
Christina Bohannan23 · 70%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks10 · 30%
Total33
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DChristina Bohannan23 endorsers
Most notable · Brian Meyer · minority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 29th district (2013–present)
Organizations13
Organizations · 13
- 314 Action · Fund
- American Federation of Government Employees
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- Giffords
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- NewDem Action Fund
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Vote Common Good
- WelcomePAC
Elected officials9
Federal 6State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Brian Meyer · minority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 29th district (2013–present)
- Janice Weiner · minority leader of the Iowa Senate (2025–present) from the 45th district (2023–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Abby Finkenauer · former IA-01 (2019–2021)
- Bob Krause · former state representative from the 7th district (1973–1978)
- Dave Loebsack · former IA-02 (2007–2021)
- Gabby Giffords · former AZ-08 (2007–2012)
Other1
Other · 1
- Human Rights Campaign
RMariannette Miller-Meeks10 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- AIPAC
- Americans for Prosperity
- ClearPath Action Fund
- Log Cabin Republicans
- Maggie's List
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- Turning Point Action
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-27Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043 ↗
Receipts
$6.2M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$4.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Christina BohannanH2IA02111 ↗
Receipts
$5.6M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$4.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$591.3K
D side
$341.1K · 58%
R side
$250.2K · 42%
Top spender
AB PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AB PAC other · boosts D
| D | $193.2K | 33% | against Mariannette Miller-Meeks |
| INVEST IN TOMORROW COALITION PAC other · boosts R
| R | $125.0K | 21% | for Mariannette Miller-Meeks |
| LCV Victory Fund other · boosts D
| D | $90.7K | 15% | for Christina Bohannan |
| CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. other · boosts R
| R | $67.8K | 11% | for Mariannette Miller-Meeks |
| HEALTHCARE FREEDOM SUPER PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $49.3K | 8% | for Mariannette Miller-Meeks |
| NRRC super pac · boosts D
| D | $36.3K | 6% | against Mariannette Miller-Meeks |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $104 | 0% | for Christina Bohannan |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
9 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
9 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles9
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.33
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.34 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.33
Week-over-weekshift +0.34 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 33%
Neutral 67%
33% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets33%
Neutral67%
R-leaning outlets0%
33% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Iowa U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
T
Democrat Josh Turek leading by 4 points in Iowa Senate race polling
N
Iowa First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
R
Radio Iowa/Baseball Coaches Association High School Poll 6/29/26
N
Iowa First Congressional District Primary Election Results
A
Iowa Primary Results 2026: Senate, House and Governor
R
Radio Iowa/Baseball Coaches Association High School Poll 6-22-26
N
Josh Turek Edges Out GOP’s Ashley Hinson in Internal Iowa Senate Poll
K
2026 primary election results: Iowa voters decide nominees for state auditor
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-27
Endorsements34 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage9 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks