Races · house · 2024 · North Carolina

house · open seat

Don Davis vs Laurie Buckhout

← Montana house North Carolina house →

Likely DD +7.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
90% Davis (D)
10% Buckhout (R)
Win probability
Don Davis90% (D)
Laurie Buckhout10% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +7.7
80% CIR+4.3 → D+19.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +7.7 · 80% CI R+4.3 → D+19.7
Actual result D+1.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 90% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.3 (10th pctile) to D+19.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +7.7

80% CI: R +4.3 → D +19.7 · win prob 90%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+1.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

DDon Davis0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RLaurie Buckhout0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LTom Bailey0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-12

Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137 ↗

Receipts

$4.8M

Disburse

$4.8M

Cash on hand

$26.3K

Debts

$1.5M

Top industries

Education$25.7K

Health professionals$6.7K

Top contributors

COLONY TIRE CORP$19.8K

CPFRM, LLC$17.8K

HEALTHVIEW CAPITAL PARTNERS$13.2K

COLLEGE STUDENT$13.2K

INVESTMENTS LIMITED$12.5K

Don DavisH2NC02287 ↗

Receipts

$6.1M

Disburse

$5.8M

Cash on hand

$270.8K

Debts

Top industries

Internet$10.9K

Securities & investment$9.9K

Top contributors

CHARLES AND LYNN SCHUSTERMAN FAMILY PH$13.2K

BERKSHIRE PARTNERS LLC$12.0K

GOOGLE$10.9K

GREYLOCK PARTNERS$9.9K

JANE STREET CAPITAL$9.9K

Tom BaileyH8NC13075 ↗

No FEC committee filing yet.

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$50.9M

D side

$47.1M · 92%

R side

$3.9M · 8%

Top spender

HMP

For / against split

For Davis $12.3M

Against Buckhout $34.8M

Against Davis $3.0M

For Buckhout $861.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HMP	D	$30.4M	60%	against Laurie Buckhout
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	D	$5.6M	11%	for Don Davis
FAIRSHAKE	D	$4.4M	9%	for Don Davis
NRCC	R	$2.9M	6%	against Don Davis
DCCC	D	$1.7M	3%	against Laurie Buckhout
NRDC ACTION VOTES	D	$1.5M	3%	against Laurie Buckhout
WITH HONOR FUND II, INC.	D	$1.3M	3%	for Don Davis
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$466.9K	1%	for Laurie Buckhout
HOLD THE LINE PAC	D	$363.0K	1%	against Laurie Buckhout
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE	D	$300.0K	1%	for Don Davis

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D4

Tilt D1

Tossup1

CNalysis

Lean D

Nov 3

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Nov 9

Decision Desk HQ

Lean D

Oct 10

Elections Daily

Lean D

Nov 3

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Oct 9

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Oct 23

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-12

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks