Races · house · 2024 · Iowa
house · open seat
Sarah Corkery vs Ashley Hinson
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.2 (10th pctile) to R+11.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.2
80% CI: R +35.2 → R +11.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+15.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRAshley Hinson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSarah Corkery0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-16Ashley HinsonH0IA01174 ↗
Receipts
$5.6M
Disburse
$3.7M
Cash on hand
$1.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
TV / movies / music$13.2K
TV / movies / music · $13.2K
- Universal Industries INC · $13.2K
Individuals $13.2K · PACs $0
Education$13.2K
Education · $13.2K
- Investments Limited · $13.2K
Individuals $13.2K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$12.4K
Securities & investment · $12.4K
- Apollo · $12.4K
Individuals $12.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PARTNERS$19.8K
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$14.4K
UNIVERSAL INDUSTRIES INC$13.2K
MCCOY GROUP$13.2K
INVESTMENTS LIMITED$13.2K
Sarah Corkery
Receipts
$510.6K
Disburse
$501.5K
Cash on hand
$9.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
ESSEX MEADOWS INC$6.6K
CORKERY CREATIVE$6.6K
PETE FOR AMERICA$3.3K
USDA$3.3K
BH EQUITIES$3.3K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$175.4K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$175.4K · 100%
Top spender
CLEARPATH ACTION FU…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $100.8K | 57% | for Ashley Hinson |
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $74.6K | 43% | for Ashley Hinson |
| KOCH, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (KOCHPAC) pac · boosts R
| R | $2.5 | 0% | for Ashley Hinson |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 3
- Elections Daily · Nov 3
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 31
- Decision Desk HQ · Oct 10
- Inside Elections · Oct 30
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 6
CNalysis
Likely RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RDecision Desk HQ
Safe RElections Daily
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-16
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks