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Races · house · 2024 · Iowa
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Christina Bohannan vs Marriannette Miller-Meeks

← Hawaii houseIowa house →
Safe RR +15.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Bohannan (D)
99% Miller-Meeks (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +15.9 · 80% CI R+27.9 → R+3.9
Actual result Mariannette Miller-Meeks +0.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+27.9 (10th pctile) to R+3.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +15.9
80% CI: R +27.9 → R +3.9 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultMariannette Miller-Meeks +0.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMarriannette Miller-Meeks0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DChristina Bohannan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-05
Marriannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Christina BohannanH2IA02111 ↗
Receipts
$6.9M
Disburse
$6.8M
Cash on hand
$107.2K
Debts
$23.6K
Top industries
Education$115.9K
Computers / electronics$10.0K
Internet$9.4K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA$97.4K
NO EMPLOYER$30.9K
MOTTLEY RICE, LLC$18.6K
IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY$10.4K
MICROSOFT$10.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$32.0M
D side
$20.1M · 63%
R side
$11.8M · 37%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Bohannan $2.2M
Against Miller-Meeks $17.9M
Against Bohannan $9.7M
For Miller-Meeks $2.1M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$13.0M41%against Marriannette Miller-Meeks
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$5.6M18%against Christina Bohannan
DCCCD$4.5M14%against Marriannette Miller-Meeks
WFW ACTION FUND, INC.R$3.4M11%against Christina Bohannan
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$1.3M4%for Marriannette Miller-Meeks
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$1.1M3%for Christina Bohannan
PROJECT 218D$763.2K2%for Christina Bohannan
HEALTHCARE FREEDOM SUPER PACR$727.4K2%against Christina Bohannan

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tilt D2
Tossup1
Lean R1
Likely R1
CNalysis
Tilt D
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 31
Decision Desk HQ
Likely R
May 31
Elections Daily
Lean R
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-05
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks