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Races · house · 2024 · Iowa
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Lanon Baccam vs Zach Nunn

← Iowa houseIowa house →
Likely RR +13.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Baccam (D)
99% Nunn (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +13.1 · 80% CI R+25.1 → R+1.1
Actual result R+3.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+25.1 (10th pctile) to R+1.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.1
80% CI: R +25.1 → R +1.1 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+3.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RZach Nunn0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DLanon Baccam0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-06
Lanon BaccamH4IA03172 ↗
Receipts
$5.6M
Disburse
$5.6M
Cash on hand
$25.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$16.6K
Oil & gas$13.2K
Securities & investment$13.2K
Health professionals$12.6K
Top contributors
NO EMPLOYER$85.5K
BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS$19.8K
INSIGHT PARTNERS$19.8K
GOOGLE$16.6K
LAUDER PARTNERS, LLC$13.2K
Zach NunnH2IA03119 ↗
Receipts
$5.8M
Disburse
$5.9M
Cash on hand
$52.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$25.7K
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$35.4K
MARQUIS MANAGEMENT INC.$16.6K
BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PARTNERS$16.5K
STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES$13.2K
APOLLO GLOBAL MGMT$13.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$24.0M
D side
$10.1M · 42%
R side
$13.9M · 58%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Baccam $3.7M
Against Nunn $6.4M
Against Baccam $12.4M
For Nunn $1.5M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$7.9M33%against Lanon Baccam
HMPD$2.9M12%against Zach Nunn
PROJECT 218D$2.5M10%for Lanon Baccam
STRATEGIC MAJORITY PACR$2.2M9%against Lanon Baccam
DCCCD$2.1M9%against Zach Nunn
NRCCR$933.8K4%against Lanon Baccam
VOTEVETSD$916.5K4%against Zach Nunn
TERM LIMITS ACTIONR$900.7K4%against Lanon Baccam
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$648.1K3%for Zach Nunn
AMERICA PACR$571.5K2%for Zach Nunn

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tilt D1
Tossup2
Tilt R1
Lean R1
CNalysis
Tilt D
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 31
Decision Desk HQ
Tossup
Oct 26
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Oct 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-06
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks